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Projections/Scenarios for 2016 Playoff Pairings


Union_Fan
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In all these examples I'm giving Appo best case scenario on their total points just to show that they are not a sure #1 or #2 given "likely" scenarios for Richlands and Graham. Also, it would appear that Dan River and Union are almost certain to remain #4 and #5. Union would need massive help to jump Dan River.

 

1.) Richlands      10-0   292   29.2
2.) Appomattox 10-0   290   29
3.) Graham          9-1   278   27.8
4.) Dan River       9-1   266   26.6
5.) Union              9-1   258   25.8
 
 
1.) Richlands     10-0   292   29.2
2.) Graham         9-1   278   27.8
3.) Appomattox   9-1   273   27.3
4.) Dan River      9-1   265   26.5
5.) Union             9-1   258   25.8
 
 
1.) Appomattox 10-0   290   29
2.) Graham          9-1   279   27.9
3.) Richlands        9-1   273   27.3
4.) Dan River       9-1   266   26.6
5.) Union              9-1   257   25.7
 
 
1.) Graham         9-1   279   27.9
2.) Appomattox   9-1   273   27.3
3.) Richlands      9-1   273   27.3
4.) Dan River      9-1   265   26.5
5.) Union            9-1   257   25.7
 
I'll post 6-16 scenarios tomorrow.
 
 

 

 

 

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In all these examples I'm giving Appo best case scenario on their total points just to show that they are not a sure #1 or #2 given "likely" scenarios for Richlands and Graham. Also, it would appear that Dan River and Union are almost certain to remain #4 and #5. Union would need massive help to jump Dan River.

 

1.) Richlands 10-0 292 29.2

2.) Appomattox 10-0 290 29

3.) Graham 9-1 278 27.8

4.) Dan River 9-1 266 26.6

5.) Union 9-1 258 25.8

 

 

 

1.) Richlands 10-0 292 29.2

2.) Graham 9-1 278 27.8

3.) Appomattox 9-1 273 27.3

4.) Dan River 9-1 265 26.5

5.) Union 9-1 258 25.8

 

 

 

1.) Appomattox 10-0 290 29

2.) Graham 9-1 279 27.9

3.) Richlands 9-1 273 27.3

4.) Dan River 9-1 266 26.6

5.) Union 9-1 257 25.7

 

 

 

1.) Graham 9-1 279 27.9

2.) Appomattox 9-1 273 27.3

3.) Richlands 9-1 273 27.3

4.) Dan River 9-1 265 26.5

5.) Union 9-1 257 25.7

 

I'll post 6-16 scenarios tomorrow.

 

Nice work. But was hoping for a graham vs appo matchup before richlands had to play either of them. Doesnt look possible.

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What?

 

The likeliest scenario is Richlands going 10-0 with Appomattox going 9-1. That puts Appomattox traveling to Bluefield in the third round...

That would be quarterfinals. Wouldnt graham travel to richlands? Richlands was third last yr and they had to travel to appo in quarterfinals.

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Just hard to believe a 10-0 richlands would outpoint a 10-0 appo

I never would have thought it, but it makes sense. While they will outpoint us in the base points, the rider points will be the difference here.

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I could be wrong in calculations. But I'm seeing Appomattox possibly getting 296-298 in best case scenario. And Richlands getting to 292 only if bluefield wins out and central beats lee( unlikely in my opinion on bluefield beating James Monroe) again I may be wrong that's just what I came up with.

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Someone tell me why Lee high gets two bonus points for playing Thomas Walker, Eastside and Burton when they are not in Lee's district?

The VHSL seems to be awarding two bonus points per classification if you play a lower team.

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So there is no penalty for a 2a team to play a 1a team? They get 18 points for winning no matter what? Makes no sense to me.

If a 4A team plays a 2A team, that 4A team gets 4 bonus points because if it. No idea why they changed it, but that's how it's gonna work. You don't really get much that many extra points for playing up anyways. It's about the strength of your opponent.

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Also if you look at the points for each division it give the bigger school a reason to play the smaller school the bonus points for playing the smaller school adds up to what they would have received for playing a school in their division. If they did not do this your small schools would never be able to fill a 10 game schedule in some locations without having to travel hrs for a game

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I could be wrong in calculations. But I'm seeing Appomattox possibly getting 296-298 in best case scenario. And Richlands getting to 292 only if bluefield wins out and central beats lee( unlikely in my opinion on bluefield beating James Monroe) again I may be wrong that's just what I came up with.

I did omit a possible Chatham over Bluestone victory which would give Appo 292. I still don't think Appo will reach 292 or 290. If Bluefield beats James Monroe, Central beats Lee and Va High beats Marion, I have Richlands at 298. I think that is their max points.

 

This is what I have for Appo. Winner is team on the left. Doesn't matter if Appo goes 10-0, but if they lose to Amherst, having both Heritage and Rustburg defeating Amherst would give a 9-1 Appo 2 additional points.

 

Out of district games

Buckingham/Randolph Henry - 2
Buckingham/Prince Edward - 2
Rustburg/Ahmherst - 2
Rustburg/EC Glass - 2
Heritage/Amherst - 2
Heritage/EC Glass - 2
Heritage/Liberty(Bedford) - 2
 
District Games
William Campbell/Altavista - 2
William Campbell/Nelson Co - 2
William Campbell/Chatham - 2
Gretna/Dan River - 2
Gretna/Altavista - 2
Gretna/Nelson - 2
Dan River/Altavista - 2
Chatham/Bluestone - 2
 
Opponents Left
Appo/Nelson Co -18 + 0
Appo/Chatham -  18 + 4(bonus pts based on current wins)
Appo/Amherst - 22 + 12(bonus pts based on current wins)
 
Appo's current 188 pts + their remaing games + remaining rider points gives them 292
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I re ran the numbers and as expected I made a mistake. I wasn't giving Richlands any rider points for unions probable last 3 wins. That's what happens when you crunch numbers late at night after only sleeping 4 hours the night before.

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Glenvar is pretty set at #6 unless Marion upsets Abingdon.

 

6.) Glenvar          8-2   235   23.5
7.) Martinsville     7-3   226   22.6
8.) Grundy           8-2   226   22.6
9.) Giles               7-3   225   22.5
10.) Marion          7-3   217   21.7
11.) Lee               7-3   204   20.4
12.) Gate City      5-5   195   19.5
13.) Floyd Co       6-4   189   18.9
14.) Virginia High 4-6   185   18.5
15.) Tazewell        3-7   167   16.7
16.) John Battle    4-6   165   16.5
 
If Marion upsets Abingdon.
6.) Glenvar      8-2  235  23.5
7.) Marion       8-2  235  23.5
8.) Martinsville 7-3  226  22.6
9.) Grundy       8-2  226  22.6
10.) Giles         7-3  225  22.5
 
If Central beats Lee
11.) Gate City       5-5  195  19.5
12.) Lee               6-4  190  19
13.) Floyd Co       6-4  189  18.9
14.) Virginia High 4-6  183  18.3
15.) Central         4-6  172  17.2
16.) Tazewell       3-7  167  16.7
17.) John  Battle   4-6  166  16.6
 
If Lee loses their final 3 games
11.) Gate City       5-5  195  19.5
12.) Floyd Co       6-4  189  18.9
13.) Virginia High  4-6  183  18.3
14.) John Battle    5-5  182  18.2
15.) Lee                5-5  175  17.5
16.) Central-Wise 4-6  171  17.1
 
As you can tell, many of these teams will be so close in points that it will only take 1 game to change seeding for several. Also, the results of the games for teams seeded 10-17 could have a major impact on a 10-0 Richlands' ability to outpoint a 10-0 Appo.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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I did omit a possible Chatham over Bluestone victory which would give Appo 292. I still don't think Appo will reach 292 or 290. If Bluefield beats James Monroe, Central beats Lee and Va High beats Marion, I have Richlands at 298. I think that is their max points.

 

This is what I have for Appo. Winner is team on the left. Doesn't matter if Appo goes 10-0, but if they lose to Amherst, having both Heritage and Rustburg defeating Amherst would give a 9-1 Appo 2 additional points.

 

Out of district games

Buckingham/Randolph Henry - 2

Buckingham/Prince Edward - 2

Rustburg/Ahmherst - 2

Rustburg/EC Glass - 2

Heritage/Amherst - 2

Heritage/EC Glass - 2

Heritage/Liberty(Bedford) - 2

 

District Games

William Campbell/Altavista - 2

William Campbell/Nelson Co - 2

William Campbell/Chatham - 2

Gretna/Dan River - 2

Gretna/Altavista - 2

Gretna/Nelson - 2

Dan River/Altavista - 2

Chatham/Bluestone - 2

 

Opponents Left

Appo/Nelson Co -18 + 0

Appo/Chatham - 18 + 4(bonus pts based on current wins)

Appo/Amherst - 22 + 12(bonus pts based on current wins)

 

Appo's current 188 pts + their remaing games + remaining rider points gives them 292

I think prince edward beats buckingham.
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I think prince edward beats buckingham.

I do too. As bad as they're playing Randolph Henry might beat them. I don't think Rustburg and Heritage will beat Glass, and I think Chatham loses to Bluestone. 

 

That just shows what points Appo "can" get. I think they will end up somewhere around 284-286.

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I do too. As bad as they're playing Randolph Henry might beat them. I don't think Rustburg and Heritage will beat Glass, and I think Chatham loses to Bluestone.

 

That just shows what points Appo "can" get. I think they will end up somewhere around 284-286.

Thought the same thing with randolph henry. But was wrong in thinking appo played randolph henry. Could go either way.

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