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Projections/Scenarios for 2016 Playoff Pairings


Union_Fan
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There's a few scenarios were union plays gate city, I would like to avoid that.

You and me both! I really don't think Lee will beat Va High, so I already have that factored in, but I will definitely be a Central fan Friday night in the hopes that GC moves on up to #11.

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Obviously, if Appo beats Amherst they will be the #1 seed.  I'm playing devil's advocate and giving Appo and DR maximum points for a baseline. 

Appo will most likely lose anywhere from 2-9 pts. DR will most likely lose 4-7 pts. 

 

1.) Appomattox 10-0   292   29.2
2.) Graham         9-1   279   27.9
3.) Dan River      9-1   274   27.4
4.) Richlands      9-1   271   27.1
 
1.) Graham       9-1   279   27.9
2.) Appomattox 9-1   273   27.3
3.) Dan River    9-1   273   27.3
4.) Richlands    9-1   271   27.1
 
 
 
Games these teams have left for rider points. Winner is in bold text. A few of these games are complete toss-ups, and some are simply not going to go the way I have them projected below that's why I firmly believe that both Appo and DR will not finish with these point totals.
 
Appomattox - Buckingham/Randolph-Henry, Buckingham/Prince Edward, Rustburg/Amherst, Rustburg/EC Glass, Heritage/EC Glass, Heritage/Liberty
 
Dan River - MagnaVista/GW(Danville), Bartlett Yancey/Reidsville, Bartlett Yancey/Graham(NC), Tunstall/Bassett, Martinsville/Bassett, Martinsville/Patrick Co, Appo/Amherst
 
Richlands - Graham/Ft Chiswell, Graham/Narrows, Bluefield/James Monroe, Va High/Marion, Va High/Lee, Abingdon/Marion, Union/Letcher, Union/Battle, Grundy/Ridgeview
 
Graham - Bluefield/James Monroe, Tazewell/Lebanon, Richlands/Lebanon, Giles/East Mont, Giles/Auburn, Abingdon/Marion
 
 
I didn't bother doing #5 or #6 because they will be Union and Glenvar, respectively, unless Marion upsets Abingdon, and even then it will be hard for them to outpoint Glenvar.
 
7-13 will almost certainly be Martinsville, Giles, Grundy, Marion, Lee, Gate City, and Floyd in some order.
 
14-16 can be pretty much everyone else that's left, mathematically, but most likely John Battle, Va High, Lebanon, Tazewell, or James River
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I wouldn't be surprised If bluefield beats James Monroe. If so that could get richlands to #3, or no?

Fully expect Richlands to be behind Graham at #2 or #3 depending on the Appo/Amherst game. Bartlett Yancey isn't going to win both of their games and neither is Buckingham.

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I know alot will change in 2 weeks, but if everything stays the same a real interesting match up for Abingdon in the 2nd round with Magna Vista coming to town. Some good battles shaping up in 3A West

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It really sucks that there isn't more 3A teams in this area.  Although if Abingdon can stay at #3 they could end up playing 2 home playoff games. 

 

Even if they can manage to not fall more than one spot, this will still be the case. 

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Top 4 is going to be interesting. Graham is going to be #1 or #2 depending on Appo. Grundy losing to Ridgeview hurt Richlands, and it may come down to Va High as to whether Richlands is #2 or #4 in a battle of 9-1 teams.

 

Appo will be #1 if they are 10-0, but them beating Amherst could impact Dan River's being the #3 or #4 seed.

 

Given the following games. Winner is in bold.

 

Appomattox - Buckingham/Prince Edward, Rustburg/EC Glass,Heritage/Liberty
Dan River - MagnaVista/GW(Danville) ,Bartlett Yancey/Graham(NC), Tunstall/Bassett, Martinsville/Patrick Co, Appo/Amherst
Richlands - Graham/Narrows, Va High/Lee, Union/Battle, Marion/Abingdon
 
1.) Appomattox 10-0   288   28.8
2.) Graham         9-1   279   27.9
3.) Richlands      9-1   271   27.1
4.) Dan River      9-1   270   27
 
Same games with Appo losing to Amherst
 
1.) Graham        9-1   279   27.9
2.) Richlands     9-1   271   27.1
3.) Appomattox  9-1   269   26.9
4.) Dan River     9-1   269   26.9
 
 
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5-10 if Marion loses to Abingdon.

 

5.) Union         9-1   261   26.1
6.) Glenvar      8-2   235   23.5
7.) Martinsville 7-3   228   22.8
8.) Giles           7-3   227   22.7
9.) Marion        7-3   220   22
10.) Grundy     7-3   212   21.2
 
If Marion upsets Abingdon
 
5.) Union          9-1   261   26.1
6.) Marion       8-2   239   23.9
7.) Glenvar      8-2   235   23.5
8.) Martinsville 7-3   228   22.8
9.) Giles           7-3   227   22.7
10.) Grundy     7-3   212   21.2
 
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This is where the real moving is going to take place.So many possibilities.

 

11-16 if Ridgeview, Lee, Tazewell and Gretna all win.

 

11.) Lee                 7-3   207   20.7
12.) Gate City        5-5   196   19.6
13.) Floyd County 6-4   187   18.7
14.) John S. Battle 5-5   187   18.7
15.) Tazewell         3-7   167   16.7
16.) Gretna            3-7   163   16.3
17.) Ridgeview       3-7   163   16.3
 
If Ridgeview, Va High, Tazewell and Gretna all win.
 
11.) Gate City        5-5   196   19.6
12.) Lee                6-4   194   19.4
13.) Floyd County 6-4   187   18.7
14.) John S. Battle 5-5   186   18.6
15.) Virginia High  3-7   173   17.3
16.) Tazewell        3-7   168   16.8
17.) Gretna          3-7   163   16.3
18.) Ridgeview     3-7   162   16.2
 
If Ridgeview, Va High, Lebanon and Gretna all win.
 
11.) Gate City         5-5   196   19.6
12.) Lee                 6-4   196   19.6
13.) John S. Battle 5-5   188   18.8
14.) Floyd County  6-4   187   18.7
15.) Lebanon         4-6   174   17.4
16.) Virginia High   3-7   172   17.2
17.) Gretna            3-7   163   16.3
18.) Ridgeview      3-7    162   16.2
 
Winner of Lebanon/Tazewell gets in. Loser stays home. 
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Top 4 is going to be interesting. Graham is going to be #1 or #2 depending on Appo. Grundy losing to Ridgeview hurt Richlands, and it may come down to Va High as to whether Richlands is #2 or #4 in a battle of 9-1 teams.

 

Appo will be #1 if they are 10-0, but them beating Amherst could impact Dan River's being the #3 or #4 seed.

 

Given the following games. Winner is in bold.

 

Appomattox - Buckingham/Prince Edward, Rustburg/EC Glass,Heritage/Liberty

Dan River - MagnaVista/GW(Danville) ,Bartlett Yancey/Graham(NC), Tunstall/Bassett, Martinsville/Patrick Co, Appo/Amherst

Richlands - Graham/Narrows, Va High/Lee, Union/Battle, Marion/Abingdon

 

 

1.) Appomattox 10-0 288 28.8

2.) Graham 9-1 279 27.9

3.) Richlands 9-1 271 27.1

4.) Dan River 9-1 270 27

 

Same games with Appo losing to Amherst

 

 

1.) Graham 9-1 279 27.9

2.) Richlands 9-1 271 27.1

3.) Appomattox 9-1 269 26.9

4.) Dan River 9-1 269 26.9

 

 

Ok, so if Appo loses and VHS loses, Richlands and Appo would tie. Who wins that tiebreak??

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