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Scenarios for Region D Final Seeding.


Union_Fan
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All things being equal, I think Central/GC and Tazewell/Grundy determine the #1 seed. Even if Richlands loses to Va High. Sleeper games are Princeton/Brooke and Mo West/Bearden.

The following is based on Central over GC, Va High over Richlands, Grundy over Tazewell, Princeton over Greenbrier, Brooke over Princeton, and Grayson losing their last 2. A tie for #1 between Union/Graham would go to Union for "best overall record". A tie between Union/Marion would come down to "highest average rating of all opponents".

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Marion 9-1 249 24.9
5.) Va High 7-3 232 23.2
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Battle, John 5-5 190 19
8.) Central-Wise 3-7 176 17.6
8.) Richlands 3-7 176 17.6
10.) Grayson Co 4-6 174 17.4
11.) Tazewell 3-7 168 16.8
12.) Lebanon 2-8 149 14.9
13.) Gate City 0-10 134 13.4

If Marion beats Graham...

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
1.) Marion 10-0 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Graham 8-2 248 24.8

If Marion beats Graham and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Marion 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Graham 8-2 248 24.8

If Graham beats Marion  and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
2.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Marion 9-1 249 24.9

If Marion beats Graham, Va High beats Marion, and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
2.) Va High 8-2 254 25.4
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Marion 9-1 250 25

If Tazewell beats Grundy and Lebanon

1.) Graham 9-1 270 27
2.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 7-3 234 23.4
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Battle, John 5-5 190 19
8.) Tazewell 4-6 185 18.5

If Tazewell beats Grundy, but Richlands beats Va High

1.) Union 10-0 270 27
2.) Graham 9-1 270 27
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 6-4 220 22
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Richlands 4-6 195 19.5
8.) Battle, John 5-5 189 18.9

If Tazewell beats Grundy, Richlands beats Va High, and Grayson beats Wythe.

1.) Union 10-0 270 27
2.) Graham 9-1 270 27
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 6-4 220 22
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Richlands 4-6 195 19.5
8.) Grayson Co 5-5 191 19.1

If Va High beats Marion and Richlands, and Battle beats Lee

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Va High 8-2 253 25.3
5.) Marion 8-2 231 23.1
6.) Battle, John 6-4 207 20.7
7.) Lee 5-5 195 19.5
8.) Central-Wise 3-7 177 17.7
9.) Richlands 3-7 176 17.6

Anything can happen over these next 2 weeks. Going to be EXCITING! Hopefully, I have no typos up there.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Unionguy_2017 said:

In the first scenario, I'd have to assume Richlands would get the tiebreaker over Central right?

Here are the tie breakers, and I don't see "best overall record" in this year's handbook

(a) The Rating Scale-Considering all regular season games played against public and non-public Virginia schools and scheduled in accordance with the provisions of 68-4-6.
(b) The winner of any games between the two tied teams if only the tied teams are involved. If more than two teams tied, and one of the tied teams beat all other tied teams, that team shall advance.
(c) The team with the better record against all common opponents.
(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. (e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.
(f) The team with the highest winning percentage against rating scale recognized opponents.
(g) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's opponents.
(h) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL public and VHSL non-public school opponents
(i) The regional chairman, or his/her alternate if his/her school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative.
(j) The group chairman or vice chairman if the chairman's school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative. Should both the group chair and vice chair be involved in the tie the group secretary would oversee the process.

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14 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Here are the tie breakers, and I don't see "best overall record" in this year's handbook

(a) The Rating Scale-Considering all regular season games played against public and non-public Virginia schools and scheduled in accordance with the provisions of 68-4-6.
(b) The winner of any games between the two tied teams if only the tied teams are involved. If more than two teams tied, and one of the tied teams beat all other tied teams, that team shall advance.
(c) The team with the better record against all common opponents.
(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. (e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.
(f) The team with the highest winning percentage against rating scale recognized opponents.
(g) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's opponents.
(h) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL public and VHSL non-public school opponents
(i) The regional chairman, or his/her alternate if his/her school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative.
(j) The group chairman or vice chairman if the chairman's school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative. Should both the group chair and vice chair be involved in the tie the group secretary would oversee the process.

Goodness.... ? I don't understand why something like (d) is there and better overall record isn't. 

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12 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Here are the tie breakers, and I don't see "best overall record" in this year's handbook

(a) The Rating Scale-Considering all regular season games played against public and non-public Virginia schools and scheduled in accordance with the provisions of 68-4-6.
(b) The winner of any games between the two tied teams if only the tied teams are involved. If more than two teams tied, and one of the tied teams beat all other tied teams, that team shall advance.
(c) The team with the better record against all common opponents.
(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. (e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.
(f) The team with the highest winning percentage against rating scale recognized opponents.
(g) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's opponents.
(h) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL public and VHSL non-public school opponents
(i) The regional chairman, or his/her alternate if his/her school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative.
(j) The group chairman or vice chairman if the chairman's school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative. Should both the group chair and vice chair be involved in the tie the group secretary would oversee the process.

So, with all this, it probably comes down to (g) and Richlands would get it based on their opponents having a bigger average I would guess.

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Nice work, thanks!

Two questions for clarity;

VHS, Union, Graham, Ridgeview, and Marion are locked in the top 5, it's just a matter of who finishes where, correct? 

VHS' best case is #2 and worst case is #5?

 

EDIT: Actually, could VHS lose their last 2, then be outpointed by the JSB/LEE winner if they were to win out?

Edit x 2: I guess there would probably be a crazy scenario for VHS to finish #1, where Graham, Union, and Ridgeview loses out, and......I just stopped there. Kinda silly to bank on that much lol

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2 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

All things being equal, I think Central/GC and Tazewell/Grundy determine the #1 seed. Even if Richlands loses to Va High. Sleeper games are Princeton/Brooke and Mo West/Bearden.

The following is based on Central over GC, Va High over Richlands, Grundy over Tazewell, Princeton over Greenbrier, Brooke over Princeton, and Grayson losing their last 2. A tie for #1 between Union/Graham would go to Union for "best overall record". A tie between Union/Marion would come down to "highest average rating of all opponents".

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Marion 9-1 249 24.9
5.) Va High 7-3 232 23.2
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Battle, John 5-5 190 19
8.) Central-Wise 3-7 176 17.6
8.) Richlands 3-7 176 17.6
10.) Grayson Co 4-6 174 17.4
11.) Tazewell 3-7 168 16.8
12.) Lebanon 2-8 149 14.9
13.) Gate City 0-10 134 13.4

If Marion beats Graham...

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
1.) Marion 10-0 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Graham 8-2 248 24.8

If Marion beats Graham and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Marion 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Graham 8-2 248 24.8

If Graham beats Marion  and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
2.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Marion 9-1 249 24.9

If Marion beats Graham, Va High beats Marion, and Abingdon beats Union...

1.) Ridgeview 9-1 263 26.3
2.) Va High 8-2 254 25.4
3.) Union 9-1 251 25.1
4.) Marion 9-1 250 25

If Tazewell beats Grundy and Lebanon

1.) Graham 9-1 270 27
2.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 7-3 234 23.4
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Battle, John 5-5 190 19
8.) Tazewell 4-6 185 18.5

If Tazewell beats Grundy, but Richlands beats Va High

1.) Union 10-0 270 27
2.) Graham 9-1 270 27
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 6-4 220 22
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Richlands 4-6 195 19.5
8.) Battle, John 5-5 189 18.9

If Tazewell beats Grundy, Richlands beats Va High, and Grayson beats Wythe.

1.) Union 10-0 270 27
2.) Graham 9-1 270 27
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 260 26
4.) Marion 9-1 251 25.1
5.) Va High 6-4 220 22
6.) Lee 6-4 211 21.1
7.) Richlands 4-6 195 19.5
8.) Grayson Co 5-5 191 19.1

If Va High beats Marion and Richlands, and Battle beats Lee

1.) Union 10-0 268 26.8
2.) Graham 9-1 268 26.8
3.) Ridgeview 9-1 262 26.2
4.) Va High 8-2 253 25.3
5.) Marion 8-2 231 23.1
6.) Battle, John 6-4 207 20.7
7.) Lee 5-5 195 19.5
8.) Central-Wise 3-7 177 17.7
9.) Richlands 3-7 176 17.6

Anything can happen over these next 2 weeks. Going to be EXCITING! Hopefully, I have no typos up there.

 

 

Well done ... Go G-Men!

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11 minutes ago, Bearcat Dad said:

Nice work, thanks!

Two questions for clarity;

VHS, Union, Graham, Ridgeview, and Marion are locked in the top 5, it's just a matter of who finishes where, correct? 

VHS' best case is #2 and worst case is #5?

 

EDIT: Actually, could VHS lose their last 2, then be outpointed by the JSB/LEE winner if they were to win out?

Realistically speaking, yes, top 5 is locked. I think VHS is the only one vulnerable to dropping out of the top 5, and that would take losing their last 2 and Battle or Lee winning out like you said.

Possibility......VHS can get the #1 spot by finishing 8-2 and Graham, Union, Ridgeview, and Marion were to lose at least 1 out of their last 2.

1.) Va High 8-2 254 25.4
2.) Union 9-1 250 25
3.) Marion 9-1 250 25
4.) Graham 8-2 249 24.9
5.) Ridgeview 8-2 247 24.7
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2 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Realistically speaking, yes, top 5 is locked. I think VHS is the only one vulnerable to dropping out of the top 5, and that would take losing their last 2 and Battle or Lee winning out like you said.

Possibility......VHS can get the #1 spot by finishing 8-2 and Graham, Union, Ridgeview, and Marion were to lose at least 1 out of their last 2.

1.) Va High 8-2 254 25.4
2.) Union 9-1 250 25
3.) Marion 9-1 250 25
4.) Graham 8-2 249 24.9
5.) Ridgeview 8-2 247 24.7

Fantastic work, Union_Fan! 

If VHS meets Union in the playoffs, I'll buy you a drink. You've earned it after this work you've put in to keep everyone up to date. Lol

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1 hour ago, goose111874 said:

Is there anyway you could do maybe just the top 3 for 2a region c.  Just curious if union will outpoint who comes out of that region.

There is a convo about this in the region C thread (I think that’s its location). Union has a solid shot at 10-0 and finishing with 270 power points. Payne four more but a big maybe. Seems like all region c teams were in the low to mid 260’s as best I remember. Hope that helps til he can run some numbers for that region. 

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22 minutes ago, BearDawg said:

There is a convo about this in the region C thread (I think that’s its location). Union has a solid shot at 10-0 and finishing with 270 power points. Payne four more but a big maybe. Seems like all region c teams were in the low to mid 260’s as best I remember. Hope that helps til he can run some numbers for that region. 

Thanks for the info.

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17 hours ago, goose111874 said:

Is there anyway you could do maybe just the top 3 for 2a region c.  Just curious if union will outpoint who comes out of that region.

Only the top 2 are capable of outpointing the probable Region D winner. That would be Glenvar and Appomattox.

Glenvar could max out at 270 pts for a rating of 27.
Appo could max out at 249 pts, but that is divisible by 9 because their game with Fork Union doesn't count. That would be a rating of 27.6

So, technically it is possible if ALL games go their way.

The guy from Gretna on preps seems to think that Glenvar will end up 26.8 and Appo at 26.778. He knows the teams out that way far better than me I'm sure, so let's hope that he's correct.

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