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Bulldogs52

VA Preseason Rankings

27 posts in this topic

Per @vhslreference

 

2018 Preseason VIRGINIA Football Rankings

276 AREA CODE

1 Union

2 Graham

3 Magna Vista

4 Richlands

5 Abingdon

6 Virginia

7 Marion

8 Martinsville

9 Galax

10 Wythe

11 Grayson

12 Lee

13 Ridgeview

14 John Battle

15 Fort Chiswell

16 Wise

17 Gate City

18 Chilhowie

19 Burton

20 Tazewell

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Just a few quick observations.  Chilhowie is criminally low on that list!!!!!!!!!  Union, Abingdon, Marion and Virginia may be slightly over-valued.  Ridgeview, Grayson and Fort Chiswell may be slightly under-valued. 

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Union lost what 23 seniors? There's talent coming up but the Bears are going to experience some growing pains. #1 is way too high for them right now.

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This list is absurd. If you read more of their lists, you will see contradictions everywhere. For example, they have VHS ranked ahead of Marion on this list, but in their "Wins Prediction"  list, they have Marion winning more games.

The real question is; "When will we see the only list that matters?".....the SWVASports.com Preseason Top 10 List 😁

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Before everyone gets too worked up, just remember that this list is from vhslreference. It's not a prediction of the upcoming season based on current players, coaches, etc... It's a prediction of finishes using a mathematical algorithm based on stats from the past "x" number of years.

It doesn't predict based on returning or lost players. Only past W/L records and his website rating.

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17 minutes ago, GMan said:

You do realize this list comes from someone who has never watched a game in SWVA and bases it all on what his computer said about last season, right???

I guess that speaks volumes about his computer, then. 😂

EDIT: His lists are full of laughable entries, depending on said list. I'm just curious as to what algorithm on God's green Earth, formulates that a team that appeared in a State Championship game one year, and returns nearly every starter from that team the next year, deserves to be ranked where Chilhowie is ranked?

I really don't have a dog in that race, but inquiring minds want to know😁

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44 minutes ago, Bearcat Dad said:

I guess that speaks volumes about his computer, then. 😂

EDIT: His lists are full of laughable entries, depending on said list. I'm just curious as to what algorithm on God's green Earth, formulates that a team that appeared in a State Championship game one year, and returns nearly every starter from that team the next year, deserves to be ranked where Chilhowie is ranked?

I really don't have a dog in that race, but inquiring minds want to know😁

I'm not sure how many years he uses for future predictions, but take this into consideration. Chilhowie's record for 2014 -17 was 1-9, 2-8, 9-3, and 11-4. That averages out to 6-6 (rounded). Not a record of a state champion or even a runner-up. Union's record for 2014-17 was 9-3, 13-1, 11-2, 13-1. That averages out to 12-2. That's a semi-final appearance. 1 game away from a state appearance.

Both teams couldn't be more opposite in what that have coming back next year with Union essentially losing an entire football team (20) and Chilhowie basically losing nothing. However, his site doesn't take a single "real" factor into account only what's on paper, ie statistics. Statistically speaking, Chilhowie will finish 5-5 and go 1-1 in the playoffs, Union will finish 9-1 and go 3-1 in the playoffs. Logically speaking, Chilhowie will NOT finish 5-5, and I truly have no clue what Union will do. I would love 9-1 though!

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Ok. Time to eat crow. 

Gate City and the Mac dude was for real. They beat us Radford dudes fair and square. 

My boys are working everyday to avenge that game for next year but the football.team?

We are not the greatest but from what I hear from people near Bristol a poll position at 17 may be a little high for the Devils here in football. 

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4 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

I'm not sure how many years he uses for future predictions, but take this into consideration. Chilhowie's record for 2014 -17 was 1-9, 2-8, 9-3, and 11-4. That averages out to 6-6 (rounded). Not a record of a state champion or even a runner-up. Union's record for 2014-17 was 9-3, 13-1, 11-2, 13-1. That averages out to 12-2. That's a semi-final appearance. 1 game away from a state appearance.

Both teams couldn't be more opposite in what that have coming back next year with Union essentially losing an entire football team (20) and Chilhowie basically losing nothing. However, his site doesn't take a single "real" factor into account only what's on paper, ie statistics. Statistically speaking, Chilhowie will finish 5-5 and go 1-1 in the playoffs, Union will finish 9-1 and go 3-1 in the playoffs. Logically speaking, Chilhowie will NOT finish 5-5, and I truly have no clue what Union will do. I would love 9-1 though!

To me, that makes sense in how he comes up with his numbers in that particular comparison. I can't say for sure, and I may be way off, but I'm not sure it would work if you compare VHS at #6 and Gate City at #17. I know GC had a terrible year last season, but I believe the win total for VHS in the last 4 years is; 7, 3, 6, and 2. If my math is correct, that makes them 18-25 overall. Definitely not worthy of a #6 ranking, if he's not using a "real" factor. I do think you're close, but there must be some other factor that I can't figure out.

I guess my next question would be; Why does he, or anyone, do it that way?

Being involved in football and baseball at VHS for the better part of 30 years, as a fan, a player, and now as a dad, I fully understand what it's like to be a part of 2 programs at different points of the spectrum, in terms of success. To me, this is actually a pretty cool way to make a case for a program, if we're talking about, say....The Best Program of All-time, or something along those lines.

I honestly don't fault the guy for trying something in a modern way, but without just a hint of knowledge, it's nearly impossible to make somewhat accurate predictions, from season to season, especially for programs like Chilhowie and VHS, who are historically mediocre, but are currently in the midst of being successful, or traditional powerhouses like Gate City, who are just mired in a tough stretch.

I can easily admit that I know Jack Squat about the upcoming season of 4 of the teams on this list; Magna Vista, Galax, George Wythe, and Martinsville. They may be the top 4 teams for all i know, but i doubt it. They could be the bottom 4 teams, but i doubt that too. What I can say, is that I know a little about the other 16 teams, and I would bet the farm that this list is way off.

On a side note, Union is Union. You guys will be at or near the top, come November. At least that's what my computer tells me 🍻

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I use and enjoy VHSL Reference as a historical database; however, the preseason rankings section lacks the valid data needed to calculate results that are even remotely accurate. Their in-season rankings are only marginally better. 

Again, I like many aspects of the site but this part needs to be retooled or scrapped. 

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I know the son of he guy who runs it. Actually one of my best friends from college. It’s all algorithm based for the press on stuff. Take it with a grain of salt. 

The historicla stuff on there, though, is a big tool and is well done. 

Also. Fun fact. The guy who runs the website retired to Florida years ago. 

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21 minutes ago, Bulldog 82 said:

Shouldn't Giles be in the top 20 somewhere?

They are a 540 School. Those are the rankings for teams in the 276 code. Which even furthers the WTF question of Magna Vista. But that’s why no Giles. 

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22 minutes ago, Bulldog 82 said:

Shouldn't Giles be in the top 20 somewhere?

 

On 7/10/2018 at 3:30 PM, Bulldogs52 said:

Per @vhslreference

 

2018 Preseason VIRGINIA Football Rankings

276 AREA CODE

Giles is the westernmost edge of 540.

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13 hours ago, Ryan4VT said:

They are a 540 School. Those are the rankings for teams in the 276 code. Which even furthers the WTF question of Magna Vista. But that’s why no Giles. 

Magna Vista is in the 276 area code though...

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10 hours ago, cityofRaven said:

Magna Vista is in the 276 area code though...

I know.  That’s why I’m saying it’s a WTF moment when Giles is 540 yet Magna Vista is 276. Crazy. 

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