Scenarios for Region 2D Final seeding

[Union_Fan 2,154]

The 2D picture isn't as clear cut as it seemed a few weeks ago. With Abingdon's victory over Ridgeview and so MANY toss-up games remaining, the picture is pretty fuzzy for final positions. Only Lebanon and Gate City are eliminated. Let's start with a battle of four 9-1 teams.

This Assumes Grundy splitting their final 2 games, Letcher Co losing their final game, and other relevant games going as expected(whatever that is 🙄). 

1.)	Union	9-1	263	26.3
2.)	Ridgeview	9-1	261	26.1
3.)	Grayson Co	9-1	256	25.6
4.)	Graham	9-1	243	24.3

If Abingdon defeats Union.

1.)	Ridgeview	9-1	260	26
2.)	Grayson Co	9-1	256	25.6
3.)	Union	8-2	245	24.5
4.)	Graham	9-1	243	24.3

If Galax defeats Grayson.

1.)	Union	9-1	263	26.3
2.)	Ridgeview	9-1	261	26.1
3.)	Graham	9-1	243	24.3
4.)	Grayson Co	8-2	238	23.8

If Abingdon defeats Union and Galax defeats Grayson.

1.)	Ridgeview	9-1	260	26
2.)	Union	8-2	245	24.5
3.)	Graham	9-1	243	24.3
4.)	Grayson Co	8-2	238	23.8

If Grayson loses their last 2 games. This is the only way that Richlands moves from their #5 spot. They are basically locked in at #5 if they finish 6-4. The gulf above and below is too great to move in either direction.

1.)	Union	9-1	263	26.3
2.)	Ridgeview	9-1	261	26.1
3.)	Graham	9-1	243	24.3
4.)	Richlands	6-4	223	22.3
5.)	Grayson Co	7-3	221	22.1

A look at 6-8 reveals it's anyone's guess. Central and Tazewell win out, Battle over Lee, and Va High over Marion.

6.)	Va High	5-5	201	20.1
7.)	Battle, John	5-5	187	18.7
8.)	Central-Wise	4-6	180	18
9.)	Tazewell	4-6	172	17.2

Central and Tazewell win out, Battle over Lee, and Marion over Va High.

6.)	Battle, John	5-5	186	18.6
7.)	Va High	4-6	186	18.6
8.)	Marion	5-5	181	18.1
9.)	Central-Wise	4-6	179	17.9

Tazewell wins out, Central drops their last 2, Battle over Lee, and Marion over Va High.

6.)	Battle, John	5-5	184	18.4
7.)	Marion	5-5	183	18.3
8.)	Va High	4-6	182	18.2
9.)	Tazewell	4-6	174	17.4

Tazewell wins out, Central drops their last 2, Lee over Battle, and Va High over Marion.

6.)	Va High	5-5	195	19.5
7.)	Tazewell	4-6	174	17.4
8.)	Battle, John	4-6	172	17.2
9.)	Marion	4-6	168	16.8

Tazewell loses to Grundy, Central over Grundy but loses to GC, Battle over Lee, and Va High over Marion.

6.)	Va High	5-5	197	19.7
7.)	Battle, John	5-5	187	18.7
8.)	Central-Wise	3-7	170	17
9.)	Marion	4-6	166	16.6

Tazewell loses to Grundy, Central drops their last2, Battle over Lee, and Va High over Marion.

6.)	Va High	5-5	195	19.5
7.)	Battle, John	5-5	185	18.5
8.)	Marion	4-6	166	16.6
9.)	Tazewell	3-7	157	15.7

 

At this point I think Grundy will have more impact on final seeding than any other team. Alleghany, NC wining their final 2 games could help an 8-2 Grayson Co jump a 9-1 Graham for 3rd if GC defeats Central and Grundy wins their last 2. If Grundy wins out and Letcher drops their game, Union and Ridgeview could be tied at 263 pts. Grundy, Grundy, Grundy!

[Unionguy_2017 288]

Excellent work as always. Thanks so much. 

 

What’s the tiebreaker for Union/RV? Head to head?

 

also, for those who know, what are Grayson’s chances this week and then against Galax?

[FoxTrot 180]

[Union_Fan 2,154]

10 minutes ago, Unionguy_2017 said:

Excellent work as always. Thanks so much. 

 

What’s the tiebreaker for Union/RV? Head to head?

 

also, for those who know, what are Grayson’s chances this week and then against Galax?

Ridgeview would win tie by (b) "head to head".

I'm not sure what their chances are against GW, but I believe they will lose to Galax.

 

Here are the tie breakers from last year. Assume it's still the same.

(a) The Rating Scale-Considering all regular season games played against public and non-public Virginia schools and scheduled in accordance with the provisions of 68-4-6.
(b) The winner of any games between the two tied teams if only the tied teams are involved. If more than two teams tied, and one of the tied teams beat all other tied teams, that team shall advance.
(c) The team with the better record against all common opponents.
(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. (e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.
(f) The team with the highest winning percentage against rating scale recognized opponents.
(g) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's opponents.
(h) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL public and VHSL non-public school opponents
(i) The regional chairman, or his/her alternate if his/her school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative.
(j) The group chairman or vice chairman if the chairman's school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative. Should both the group chair and vice chair be involved in the tie the group secretary would oversee the process.

[rvsteer 8]

Grayson will lose both...IMO....dont mean to be harsh if you have seen them play you will know why

[sixcat 2,919]

2 hours ago, Unionguy_2017 said:

also, for those who know, what are Grayson’s chances this week and then against Galax?

Grayson matches up well with GW's strength's with the exception of the Wells kid.  If Grayson can contain Wells, they will win the game.  But I think it will be close and could go either way.  For whatever it's worth, CalPreps has it 19-17 in favor of Grayson.

Galax will be very motivated and hungry following the collapse last year in Independence.  Galax will also be coming off back-to-back games (Auburn and Bland) where the regulars played half the game.  Galax will be healthy, rested and the game will likely be decided pretty early in my opinion.  But it is a rivalry game.  Anything can happen.

[Optimal62 178]

Grayson puts everything on their QB Hollingsworth  He is a  tough nosed kid. I seen several times as to where he runs into the line and looks to be stopped, then squirts out for a huge gain or TD. Gone are the three big receivers from last year, that they would just put the ball up and let them go get. Stop Hollingsworth - you stop Grayson. 

 GW could sneak up on them if they are looking forward to the Galax game though. 

[sixcat 2,919]

1 hour ago, Optimal62 said:

Grayson puts everything on their QB Hollingsworth  He is a  tough nosed kid. I seen several times as to where he runs into the line and looks to be stopped, then squirts out for a huge gain or TD. Gone are the three big receivers from last year, that they would just put the ball up and let them go get. Stop Hollingsworth - you stop Grayson. 

 GW could sneak up on them if they are looking forward to the Galax game though. 

Grayson (and Mcpherson) play/coach to their strength year in and year out.  Last year, it was a loaded receiving core as you suggest.  This year, it's a big, physical OL.  They overload the line of scrimmage and let the QB mostly run.  Fort Chiswell took the Hollingsworth kid out of the game Friday night and still lost.  He finished with 29 yards on 18 carries.  

Just saying, it isn't enough to just take away Hollingsworth.  Teams still need to score points against a very solid Grayson defense that has allowed 53 points all season not including Glenvar.  Even including the Glenvar game, Grayson has only allowed 89 points or 12 points per game.  GW has struggled all season to move the football for large portions of games against lesser defenses than Grayson's.  Which is why I say Grayson matches up well with GW. 

But as you say, if Grayson gets caught looking ahead to Galax, GW will beat them!

[Swiney2011 0]

if letcher wins and grundy wins out union gets the 1 correct?

[Union_Fan 2,154]

30 minutes ago, Swiney2011 said:

if letcher wins and grundy wins out union gets the 1 correct?

Yes. Unless Burton or Richlands were to lose one of their 2 games. Which would be highly unlikely. 

[Ryan4VT 4,552]

6 hours ago, rvsteer said:

Grayson will lose both...IMO....dont mean to be harsh if you have seen them play you will know why

We thought that last year, too, and they won both hahhhaha. 

[Ryan4VT 4,552]

17 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Yes. Unless Burton or Richlands were to lose one of their 2 games. Which would be highly unlikely. 

What happens if Virginia beats Richlands in week 11? Just as a what if scenario. 

[Swiney2011 0]

I think grayson will win this week lose next. Grundy got a good chance to win out dont know much about letcher central 

[goose111874 967]

32 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Yes. Unless Burton or Richlands were to lose one of their 2 games. Which would be highly unlikely. 

Burton plays Thomas walker that could be a loss

[Union_Fan 2,154]

18 minutes ago, Ryan4VT said:

What happens if Virginia beats Richlands in week 11? Just as a what if scenario. 

Assuming they get by Marion, Va High would move up to 5th and Richlands would fall to 6th.

5.)    Va High    6-4    211    21.1
6.)    Richlands    5-5    205    20.5
7.)    Battle, John    5-5    186    18.6
 

[Union_Fan 2,154]

8 minutes ago, goose111874 said:

Burton plays Thomas walker that could be a loss

Guess that's possible, but surely not. Haha 

[EH31 2,518]

@Union_Fan for graham, are you giving Princeton any wins? Or finishing 0-10?

[goose111874 967]

Thomas Walkers played good this year so u never know

[goose111874 967]

So if Grayson loses last 2 Richlands moves up to 4th.  I don't know anything about G. Wythe and galax would Grayson be favored vs. either one of them.

[Union_Fan 2,154]

Just now, EH31 said:

@Union_Fan for graham, are you giving Princeton any wins? Or finishing 0-10?

I gave Princeton a win over Brooke, but a loss to Greenbrier East.

[Union_Fan 2,154]

8 minutes ago, goose111874 said:

So if Grayson loses last 2 Richlands moves up to 4th.  I don't know anything about G. Wythe and galax would Grayson be favored vs. either one of them.

Possible. Two bonus points here or there would make the difference. So many of these games are toss-ups.

Galax should be favored in the last game, but GW is anyone's guess.

[goose111874 967]

1 minute ago, Union_Fan said:

Possible. Two bonus points here or there would make the difference. So many of these games are toss-ups.

Galax should be favored in the last game, but GW is anyone's guess.

I appreciate all the work you've put into this.  It gives me a headache just thinking about it.

[Optimal62 178]

6 hours ago, sixcat said:

Grayson (and Mcpherson) play/coach to their strength year in and year out.  Last year, it was a loaded receiving core as you suggest.  This year, it's a big, physical OL.  They overload the line of scrimmage and let the QB mostly run.  Fort Chiswell took the Hollingsworth kid out of the game Friday night and still lost.  He finished with 29 yards on 18 carries.  

Just saying, it isn't enough to just take away Hollingsworth.  Teams still need to score points against a very solid Grayson defense that has allowed 53 points all season not including Glenvar.  Even including the Glenvar game, Grayson has only allowed 89 points or 12 points per game.  GW has struggled all season to move the football for large portions of games against lesser defenses than Grayson's.  Which is why I say Grayson matches up well with GW. 

But as you say, if Grayson gets caught looking ahead to Galax, GW will beat them!

 We will find alot more out about Grayson County Friday night. There could be some noise in the numbers when you look at their stats as they have only played one  team with a winning record.  Not a knock against GC. It just is what it is and they have took care of the people in front of them so you have to give credit where it's due. 

 Auburn was up on them 14-0 until they lost their QB at the end of the half and fort was up on them until late in the game and threw a costly interception. 

 Again we will know alot more after Friday, as the following week  being a rivalry game with Galax, they will give it everything and anything can happen. 

 Hollingsworth is a tuff kid and his dad is an assistant coach. This year he has over 1000 yards as a QB, that doesn't happen often. Unless you run a single wing like Giles. Haha  As well as Cassell their middle  backer comes from a long line of Grayson County  for them. Both his dad and uncle was all state linebackers. 

In my opinion of GW plays good it will be a good game as GW has the line size to rival GC. If they play subpar not GC wins  by two TDs. 

[sixcat 2,919]

8 hours ago, Optimal62 said:

 We will find alot more out about Grayson County Friday night. There could be some noise in the numbers when you look at their stats as they have only played one  team with a winning record.  Not a knock against GC. It just is what it is and they have took care of the people in front of them so you have to give credit where it's due. 

 Auburn was up on them 14-0 until they lost their QB at the end of the half and fort was up on them until late in the game and threw a costly interception. 

 Again we will know alot more after Friday, as the following week  being a rivalry game with Galax, they will give it everything and anything can happen. 

 Hollingsworth is a tuff kid and his dad is an assistant coach. This year he has over 1000 yards as a QB, that doesn't happen often. Unless you run a single wing like Giles. Haha  As well as Cassell their middle  backer comes from a long line of Grayson County  for them. Both his dad and uncle was all state linebackers. 

In my opinion of GW plays good it will be a good game as GW has the line size to rival GC. If they play subpar not GC wins  by two TDs. 

Again, just trying to be clear, I graduated from Grayson with the Cassell twins and I know Todd, although not well. Still talk to Brant fairly often even though he doesn't live here anymore.  I don't recall either of the Cassell twins being "all-state" but they were very good.  They very well could have been.  I'll ask Brant next time I talk to him.   

I don't like using transitive properties, especially for high school football.  Different teams match up in different ways.  

If Mark Dixon has taught us anything, it's that line size is irrelevant.  Galax has been out-sized along the line of scrimmage for the better part of a decade, yet continually win at the point of contact.  Size doesn't help you much if you don't have strength, stamina and proper technique.  GW probably played Galax better than anyone since the Glenvar game in the trenches.  But lets be honest, Dixon has struggled to find a cohesive unit along the line of scrimmage since Andrew Belcher tore up his knee.  With a healthy Belcher, Galax is a much better football team! 

Grayson's defense will keep them in a lot of games they can win if the offense can score enough points. 

[Hokiebird7 1,416]

8 hours ago, Optimal62 said:

 We will find alot more out about Grayson County Friday night. There could be some noise in the numbers when you look at their stats as they have only played one  team with a winning record.  Not a knock against GC. It just is what it is and they have took care of the people in front of them so you have to give credit where it's due. 

 Auburn was up on them 14-0 until they lost their QB at the end of the half and fort was up on them until late in the game and threw a costly interception. 

 Again we will know alot more after Friday, as the following week  being a rivalry game with Galax, they will give it everything and anything can happen. 

 Hollingsworth is a tuff kid and his dad is an assistant coach. This year he has over 1000 yards as a QB, that doesn't happen often. Unless you run a single wing like Giles. Haha  As well as Cassell their middle  backer comes from a long line of Grayson County  for them. Both his dad and uncle was all state linebackers. 

In my opinion of GW plays good it will be a good game as GW has the line size to rival GC. If they play subpar not GC wins  by two TDs. 

Giles doesn't even have a QB lol...messing with ya