Reg 2D Playoff Scenarios

[Union_Fan 2,154]

*Disclaimer -  not predicting these finishes, just showing scenarios based on likely outcomes of remaining games.

This is shaping up to be an unusual finish to 2D. Not so much for the "anything can happen" finishes, but more so for the "anything has ALREADY happened." Most teams are already set in a very narrow area of seeding.

Ridgeview is finishing #1 as long as they beat either Pikeville or Abingdon. If they lose to both then only an 8-2 Union can overtake them. Ridgeview is guaranteed at least the #2 spot.
Union is guaranteed at least #2 unless Richlands beats Graham and all the rider points fall Richlands way.
Gate City is trapped at #7 unless Tazewell really flubs up and loses one of their remaining 3 games. Even if they defeat Central, they will still be #7 without a Tazewell loss.
#8 seed will be a battle between Marion and Va High. Winner of that game gets in, loser stays home. There is a narrow window for Marion to get in with a loss, but it would take some upsets for certain.
#3 seed goes to the winner of Graham/Richlands. Graham cannot overtake a 7-3 Union. Richlands can, but will need help with riders.
Central can go as high as #4 with a win over GC AND a Richlands win over Graham or #5 with a Graham win over Richlands. Could get #4 with the Graham win with rider point help. They are a lock for #6 if they lose to GC.
Tazewell's fate rests with Central. #6 with a Central win, #5 with a GC win. Can't really go anywhere else.

Lee and Lebanon are out. John Battle could only get in with a Lee win and an upset over GC or Union.

In each of these, I'm giving Letcher Co 1 more win, Paintsville 2 more, Radford 3 more wins, Pikeville at least 1 more win depending on Ridgeview game and Bluefield 3 more wins. Paintsville's remaining 2 games are 50/50 shot.

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Graham over Richlands. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	250	25
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Central	8-2	217	21.7
5.)	Richlands	6-4	215	21.5
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	175	17.5
8.)	Va High	2-8	149	14.9
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	250	25
3.)	Richlands	7-3	233	23.3
4.)	Central	8-2	217	21.7
5.)	Graham	7-3	210	21
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	177	17.7
8.)	Va High	2-8	149	14.9
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Abingdon over Union.  Ridgview over Abingdon. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	257	25.7
2.)	Richlands	7-3	234	23.4
3.)	Union	7-3	234	23.4
4.)	Central	8-2	216	21.6
5.)	Graham	7-3	209	20.9
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	177	17.7
8.)	Va High	2-8	150	15
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Graham over Richlands. GC over Central. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	251	25.1
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Richlands	6-4	216	21.6
5.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
6.)	Central	7-3	202	20.2
7.)	Gate City	5-5	193	19.3
8.)	Va High	2-8	148	14.8
9.)	Marion	3-7	147	14.7

 

Marion over VA High regardless of everything else.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	251	25.1
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Richlands	6-4	216	21.6
5.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
6.)	Central	7-3	200	20
7.)	Gate City	5-5	195	19.5
8.)	Marion	4-6	159	15.9
9.)	John Battle	2-8	141	14.1

 

I did give Pikeville the win over Ridgeview in each scenario just to show how cemented Ridgview is in at least the #2 spot with an 8-2 record. It will be a difficult game though. Union would win the head to head tie breaker if they and Richlands finish tied, but Richlands' rider points will be easier to come by than Union, so there may not be a tie.

Also, keeping track of the top few teams from C for semi-final purposes. As it stands now, only Ridgeview has a chance of outpointing a 9-1 Radford team, and it will be close. If Radford loses to Glenvar Friday, and realistically this is the only shot of them not being 9-1, then they will fall to 2nd or 3rd with Appomattox taking the #1 spot at approximately 247-249 points. If that happens only an 8-2 or better Union or Ridgeview team will be able to outpoint them. So, if a team other than Ridgeview or Union represents D they will be traveling for the semis unless the 3rd seed or lower wins Region C.

[jarhead24219 440]

This gives me a headache  but it’s good

[UNION#ATW 105]

As a UNION fan...We really shot are self in the foot with the loss to Central...I hope everything works out for us...going forward 

 

[Falcon Mania 235]

16 minutes ago, UNION#ATW said:

As a UNION fan...We really shot are self in the foot with the loss to Central...I hope everything works out for us...going forward 

 

Not really shot in the foot.

#1 priority- Get on the playoffs.  Anything can happen

#2 priority- Be a 1-4 seed.  At least you will have a home playoff game, possibly 2

#3 priority- Be playing your best football once the playoffs start.  This actually could be #2

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

You are a saint, @Union_Fan

[grandpaw trojan 17]

I still say if you dont have a winning record you should not be in the playoffs, just my thoughts.

[Hokiebird7 1,416]

8 minutes ago, grandpaw trojan said:

I still say if you dont have a winning record you should not be in the playoffs, just my thoughts.

I agree

[Gridiron60 2,554]

1 hour ago, grandpaw trojan said:

I still say if you dont have a winning record you should not be in the playoffs, just my thoughts.

#this VHSL is a money racket plain & simple 

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

Given the M7 dominance of the SWD, the playoffs should be RV/Central/Union and the RLands/Graham winner. Regular season is cheapened with this format. 

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

11 minutes ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

Given the M7 dominance of the SWD, the playoffs should be RV/Central/Union and the RLands/Graham winner. Regular season is cheapened with this format. 

You think the Richlands/Graham loser should be left out of the playoffs?? HAHAHAH 

[BBHoops_18 206]

15 minutes ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

Given the M7 dominance of the SWD, the playoffs should be RV/Central/Union and the RLands/Graham winner. Regular season is cheapened with this format. 

the region championship last year was two swd teams

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

5 minutes ago, Ryan4VT said:

You think the Richlands/Graham loser should be left out of the playoffs?? HAHAHAH 

Yes. I think the playoffs should be four teams. 

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

1 minute ago, BBHoops_18 said:

the region championship last year was two swd teams

Could be this year also. I prefer the old 4 team playoff. Reward the regular season. The M7 has kicked the SWDs ass up one side and down another, why should they have to do it again?

[Ol Dawg 59]

9 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

*Disclaimer -  not predicting these finishes, just showing scenarios based on likely outcomes of remaining games.

This is shaping up to be an unusual finish to 2D. Not so much for the "anything can happen" finishes, but more so for the "anything has ALREADY happened." Most teams are already set in a very narrow area of seeding.

Ridgeview is finishing #1 as long as they beat either Pikeville or Abingdon. If they lose to both then only an 8-2 Union can overtake them. Ridgeview is guaranteed at least the #2 spot.
Union is guaranteed at least #2 unless Richlands beats Graham and all the rider points fall Richlands way.
Gate City is trapped at #7 unless Tazewell really flubs up and loses one of their remaining 3 games. Even if they defeat Central, they will still be #7 without a Tazewell loss.
#8 seed will be a battle between Marion and Va High. Winner of that game gets in, loser stays home. There is a narrow window for Marion to get in with a loss, but it would take some upsets for certain.
#3 seed goes to the winner of Graham/Richlands. Graham cannot overtake a 7-3 Union. Richlands can, but will need help with riders.
Central can go as high as #4 with a win over GC AND a Richlands win over Graham or #5 with a Graham win over Richlands. Could get #4 with the Graham win with rider point help. They are a lock for #6 if they lose to GC.
Tazewell's fate rests with Central. #6 with a Central win, #5 with a GC win. Can't really go anywhere else.

Lee and Lebanon are out. John Battle could only get in with a Lee win and an upset over GC or Union.

In each of these, I'm giving Letcher Co 1 more win, Paintsville 2 more, Radford 3 more wins, Pikeville at least 1 more win depending on Ridgeview game and Bluefield 3 more wins. Paintsville's remaining 2 games are 50/50 shot.

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Graham over Richlands. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	250	25
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Central	8-2	217	21.7
5.)	Richlands	6-4	215	21.5
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	175	17.5
8.)	Va High	2-8	149	14.9
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	250	25
3.)	Richlands	7-3	233	23.3
4.)	Central	8-2	217	21.7
5.)	Graham	7-3	210	21
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	177	17.7
8.)	Va High	2-8	149	14.9
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Abingdon over Union.  Ridgview over Abingdon. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	257	25.7
2.)	Richlands	7-3	234	23.4
3.)	Union	7-3	234	23.4
4.)	Central	8-2	216	21.6
5.)	Graham	7-3	209	20.9
6.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
7.)	Gate City	4-6	177	17.7
8.)	Va High	2-8	150	15
9.)	Marion	3-7	146	14.6

 

Ridgview loses to Pikeville. Union and Ridgview over Abingdon. Graham over Richlands. GC over Central. Va High over Marion.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	251	25.1
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Richlands	6-4	216	21.6
5.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
6.)	Central	7-3	202	20.2
7.)	Gate City	5-5	193	19.3
8.)	Va High	2-8	148	14.8
9.)	Marion	3-7	147	14.7

 

Marion over VA High regardless of everything else.

1.)	Ridgeview	8-2	256	25.6
2.)	Union	8-2	251	25.1
3.)	Graham	8-2	227	22.7
4.)	Richlands	6-4	216	21.6
5.)	Tazewell	7-3	207	20.7
6.)	Central	7-3	200	20
7.)	Gate City	5-5	195	19.5
8.)	Marion	4-6	159	15.9
9.)	John Battle	2-8	141	14.1

 

I did give Pikeville the win over Ridgeview in each scenario just to show how cemented Ridgview is in at least the #2 spot with an 8-2 record. It will be a difficult game though. Union would win the head to head tie breaker if they and Richlands finish tied, but Richlands' rider points will be easier to come by than Union, so there may not be a tie.

Also, keeping track of the top few teams from C for semi-final purposes. As it stands now, only Ridgeview has a chance of outpointing a 9-1 Radford team, and it will be close. If Radford loses to Glenvar Friday, and realistically this is the only shot of them not being 9-1, then they will fall to 2nd or 3rd with Appomattox taking the #1 spot at approximately 247-249 points. If that happens only an 8-2 or better Union or Ridgeview team will be able to outpoint them. So, if a team other than Ridgeview or Union represents D they will be traveling for the semis unless the 3rd seed or lower wins Region C.

What would it look like if RV lost to Pikeville and Abingdon?

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

2 hours ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

Could be this year also. I prefer the old 4 team playoff. Reward the regular season. The M7 has kicked the SWDs ass up one side and down another, why should they have to do it again?

What in the world are you talking about???

Lets go back the last 6 seasons (2014 through this season) and see if your theory pans out:

Richlands vs. M7: Abingdon 1-0, Central 2-0, Gate City 5-1, Battle 1-0, Ridgeview 1-0, Union 1-5  --- So Richlands is 11-6 agaisnt the M7 in the past 6 seasons. You can argue that Union has had Richlands number, for sure. But not the rest.

Graham vs. M7: Central 2-0, Gate City 0-1, Battle 1-0, Union 1-3  --- Graham is 4-4 agaisnt the M7. Still not "kicking the SWD's ass" as you like to put it.

Tazewell vs. M7: Union 0-1

Virginia vs. M7: Abingdon 1-2, Central 2-1, Gate City 0-3, Battle 5-1, Lee 2-1, 

Marion vs. M7: Gate City 2-1, Battle 1-0, Ridgeview 1-1, Union 1-1

Lebanon vs. M7: Central 1-3, Gate City 0-1, Battle 2-3, Lee 0-4

 

So extrapolating that data you get this record for the SWD vs. the M7: 31-33.   I don't know what your metric is, but "Kicked the SWDs ass up one side and down another" doesn't seem to apply when the M7 has won all of 2 more games against the SWD than they've lost. 

Also, if you take Lebanon out for the SWD, it's 28-22 for the SWD. Lebanon is the anchor that is dragging the SWD back. Without them, the SWD has owned the M7 (Except for Union).

Also, last year's Region 2D final was two SWD teams, with the state champion coming from the SWD. Richlands (the 5 seed) upset top seeded Ridgeview last year to get there. Union has saved the Mountain 7 district. Without them, it hasn't been a great league for a while, imo. Adding Abingdon will help.

So please, take your trash elsewhere.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

8 hours ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

Given the M7 dominance of the SWD, the playoffs should be RV/Central/Union and the RLands/Graham winner. Regular season is cheapened with this format. 

The SWD is 31-33 against the M7 since the realignment.  Were it not for Lebanon (3-11), the series would be decisively SWD.  What “dominance”!  🤣

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

55 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

The SWD is 31-33 against the M7 since the realignment.  Were it not for Lebanon (3-11), the series would be decisively SWD.  What “dominance”!  🤣

What does past seasons have to do with this year? This year the SWD has one win if I remember correctly and it’s over the 3A school in the M7.

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

5 hours ago, Ryan4VT said:

What in the world are you talking about???

Lets go back the last 6 seasons (2014 through this season) and see if your theory pans out:

Richlands vs. M7: Abingdon 1-0, Central 2-0, Gate City 5-1, Battle 1-0, Ridgeview 1-0, Union 1-5  --- So Richlands is 11-6 agaisnt the M7 in the past 6 seasons. You can argue that Union has had Richlands number, for sure. But not the rest.

Graham vs. M7: Central 2-0, Gate City 0-1, Battle 1-0, Union 1-3  --- Graham is 4-4 agaisnt the M7. Still not "kicking the SWD's ass" as you like to put it.

Tazewell vs. M7: Union 0-1

Virginia vs. M7: Abingdon 1-2, Central 2-1, Gate City 0-3, Battle 5-1, Lee 2-1, 

Marion vs. M7: Gate City 2-1, Battle 1-0, Ridgeview 1-1, Union 1-1

Lebanon vs. M7: Central 1-3, Gate City 0-1, Battle 2-3, Lee 0-4

 

So extrapolating that data you get this record for the SWD vs. the M7: 31-33.   I don't know what your metric is, but "Kicked the SWDs ass up one side and down another" doesn't seem to apply when the M7 has won all of 2 more games against the SWD than they've lost. 

Also, if you take Lebanon out for the SWD, it's 28-22 for the SWD. Lebanon is the anchor that is dragging the SWD back. Without them, the SWD has owned the M7 (Except for Union).

Also, last year's Region 2D final was two SWD teams, with the state champion coming from the SWD. Richlands (the 5 seed) upset top seeded Ridgeview last year to get there. Union has saved the Mountain 7 district. Without them, it hasn't been a great league for a while, imo. Adding Abingdon will help.

So please, take your trash elsewhere.

This season pal. 
 

Richland is 1-2 against M7

Graham is 0-1 against M7

VA High is 0-3

Lebanon is 0-1

Marion is 0-2

So if 1-9 is competitive to you then you’re lost. Other years it’s been different. This year, the M7 has kicked the SWDs ass. I’m a believer of a four team playoff. In that setup the only SWD team that should get in is the league champ due to the league’s poor performance against the M7. 
 

 

[Bulldog05 69]

9 hours ago, Ryan4VT said:

You think the Richlands/Graham loser should be left out of the playoffs?? HAHAHAH 

Sounds like your a little worried about Friday!?🤣

[Union_Fan 2,154]

7 hours ago, Ol Dawg said:

What would it look like if RV lost to Pikeville and Abingdon?

This would be the top 5 with a 7-3 Ridgeview. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Union 8-2.

1.)	Union	8-2	250	25
2.)	Ridgeview	7-3	240	24
3.)	Richlands	7-3	235	23.5
4.)	Central	8-2	217	21.7
5.)	Graham	7-3	210	21

 

This would be the top 5 with a 7-3 Ridgeview. Richlands over Graham. Central over GC. Union 7-3.

1.)	Ridgeview	7-3	240	24
2.)	Richlands	7-3	236	23.6
3.)	Union	7-3	233	23.3
4.)	Central	8-2	216	21.6
5.)	Graham	7-3	209	20.9

 

This would be the top 5 with a 7-3 Ridgeview. Graham over Richlands. Central over GC. Union 7-3.

1.)	Ridgeview	7-3	240	24
2.)	Union	7-3	233	23.3
3.)	Graham	8-2	226	22.6
4.)	Richlands	6-4	218	21.8
5.)	Central	8-2	216	21.6

 

In any of these scenarios, if GC defeats Central, Tazewell would go to #5 and Central would be #6.

 

[packfan17 17]

I know its highly unlikely but what if Abingdon upsets both THE PACK and Union?

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

1 hour ago, Bulldog05 said:

Sounds like your a little worried about Friday!?🤣

You think I’m worried because I said the loser shouldn’t be left out? If the Blues win — and it’s a big IF — then Graham shouldn’t be sitting at home. Same as Richlands. Both would be/will be favored over Central. 

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

1 hour ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

I’m a believer of a four team playoff. In that setup the only SWD team that should get in is the league champ due to the league’s poor performance against the M7. 

I’m glad I think nothing like you. 

[Burrall’s Pearls 61]

Just now, Ryan4VT said:

I’m glad I think nothing like you. 

I understand why. You’ve bought into thy everyone deserves a shot/trophy mentality. When Graham beats Richlands Friday, the Blues will finish second in their district and will have lost to the 5th place team in the other 2A district in the region. That ain’t playoff caliber to me, but hey, everyone deserves to play in November. Expand the playoffs even more,...

[Ryan4VT 4,550]

21 minutes ago, Burrell’s Pearls said:

I understand why. You’ve bought into thy everyone deserves a shot/trophy mentality. When Graham beats Richlands Friday, the Blues will finish second in their district and will have lost to the 5th place team in the other 2A district in the region. That ain’t playoff caliber to me, but hey, everyone deserves to play in November. Expand the playoffs even more,...

You don’t get to tell me what mentality I bring. I’ve said 100 times that we don’t need 8. We need 6. The two district winners getting BYE’s and the other 4 coming from the highest points from the system. 
But 4 is too little. You lose teams that play for regional titles and state titles when you say that 5th place team shouldn’t be there. And you can trot GC out all day long. We lost to them. But we’ve also beaten Radford, which outside of Union, no one else in the region has as good of a win.