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VT vs UVA and Coaching Search


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These playoff match-up discussion are starting to drag on and the 2 threads about firing a coach and starting a petition….well ummm yeah not a fan of either topic; seems like nitpicking to me. Just thought we’d switch gears a little something fresh lol.

I’m not a VT fan, nor UVA fan, I do think UVA has had a better season and most will pick them to win, but, but if there’s a team that plays down and figures out a team to lose a game it’s UVA. VT guys always figure out a way to get that 6th win and make a bowl game (even though there’s way too many bowl games; yet more football=AWESOME). I think a lot are saying it’ll be a high scoring shoot out, I see it the opposite for some reason; VT-24, UVA-17.

The VT coaching search on the other hand is a make or break moment for AD; I think he’s on thin ice and this is his last chance to save his job. That being said I don’t think the VT job is that desirable for a big name guy. I know several names are being thrown around, Billy Napier (Louisiana), Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina), Dave Clawson (Wake Forest), Hugh Freeze (Liberty). There’s more to the list but those seem to be the top guys. I think there should be a hire in the next week or so; part of the reason they let Fu go so soon. What’s everyone’s thought here?

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Napier will go big time he can have Florida or LSU or even Ole Miss depending on what Kiffin does. Chadwell can't be trusted to do the right things but in the NIL era he doesn't have to be so careful, Clawson can wait out Mack Brown and get the UNC job and may have a suitor in Gainesville. Freeze seems to have revived himself at Liberty and can bring Kaidon Salter the 4 star QB from Texas with him (Salter was kicked out of Tennessee for two issues before school even started) where ever he goes if anywhere. Of the 4 you mentioned you have two with bigger ambitions and two with NCAA issues. Choose wisely! 

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20 minutes ago, Tru Blue 72 said:

What about Frank Beamers son, think he has a shot at VT HC?

Shane needs to stay where he's at and make his mark as a head coach. He's stated publicly he has no interest in taking the VT job and he's not going to be the savior of the program because he's a Beamer. I've read his name mentioned many times on TSL and Hokie nation needs to get that through their heads and drop Shane from the conversation. 

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Napier is fools gold in my opinion and here is why he is very, very similar to the other non-P5 coaches that have failed at the next level.  Napier may be the next Bear Bryant for all I know, but I'm telling you this, his resume and patterns are incredibly close to the guys below and it's based on a pattern of two things.  

1.  A short time at the non-P5 school.  Not large enough of a sample size to truly evaluate the Head Coach.

2.  An elite QB for the conference the non P5 coach is coaching in.

Tom Herman- Houston/Texas.  Only at Houston for......2 years.  That's it.  2 years is so short that if you get a couple of bounces or plays that go your way, you can have a solid record.  2 years is NOT enough time statistically to evaluate how well a Head Coach might do.  Herman had a solid QB

Brown at WVU/Troy-  At Troy for 4 years only.  First year was a losing record, and the last 3 years, he had an All Conference QB for 2 of those 3 years that made an NFL roster for a brief amount of time.

Fuente/Tech/Memphis- 4 years was it at Memphis and the first two were losing seasons.  He only had 2 winning seasons and yep, you guessed it, a future NFL QB

Napier- Louisiana.  This is only his 4th season at Louisiana.  He went around .500 his first year, and the last 3 years, he has a QB that is projected by some, to possibly go as high as the late 4th round.  Napier is the exact same thing that Tech, Texas, and WVU got burned on.  Very similar resume and situation with a short sample size (not at the school very long) and an elite QB which can hide the true ability of the coach over the long haul.  Again, Napier may do well at Tech if hired.  I'm not saying he will not.  ANY coach Tech hires offers some risk.  That's a given and there's no way around it and no way to 100% be sure that the guy will win or lose, but with Napier, the pattern with the other 3 above is there.  It's spot on and dangerous in my opinion.  The trend in college football or "way of thinking" has been to look for the non-P5 coach who might be a "genius" and if he's winning, hire him.  That's not a bad way of thinking, as long as you take a deep look into the coach at the non P5 school.

Chadwell and why he is DIFFERENT- 10 years...  10 years of sample size, not 2 or 4 years, but 10.  That's a decade.  He has won at 3 different schools and not only that, at 3 different levels of play in college football with multiple quarterbacks and teams.  This is why he is DIFFERENT from the rest in my opinion regarding risk......or less risk.   

Just my take on Napier.  I'm not sold.  I've seen this film before and I'm not a fan of rinsing and repeating.  If not Chadwell, I would prefer Tech get a coordinator at a P5 school (if that's possible).  Grimes obviously, the guy at Notre Dame (DC) who is a great recruiter.  I even like Leftwich. The risk with these types is that they haven't been a Head Coach.  Always......there will be some risk unless we land Nick Saban, lol.  No way to avoid risk, but I think some......are less risky than others.  Napier fits the bill of the 3 mentioned above that didn't work out. For me, the guy at ND, Grimes, Chadwell, Leftwich, O'Brian are better choices regarding less risk.

Freeze- Fools Gold.  My initial take was that he was the guy.  I feel completely opposite now.  At Mississippi, he went 12-25 over 5 years.  I know, it's Mississippi, but there's nothing there special with that record.  Now at Liberty....in his third year.  Who's the QB?  He struck gold with a portal transfer, and a QB who is going to get drafted and play in the NFL.  Again, it's the absolute perfect setup just like Fu, Brown, Herman, and Napier.  It's a bad choice, especially when you had the morality component with Freeze.

The above are just one dude's opinions, with a few supporting facts to make my opinion.  Whoever Va Tech gets, I will support em and will be very excited compared to the dumb dumb we just ran off.  Key takeaway point I'm trying to make (and struggle to do so as usual) is that if you start thinking non P5 Head Coach who is currently winning, you better take a deep look a how long (or how short) that coach has been at the non P5 school, and you need to take a look if they won the lottery by having an elite QB for that conference or level of play which can make that non-P5 coach look like a "genius" when he's actually anything but a genius.  Fu, Brown, and Herman are perfect examples.  Although, in Herman's defense, he actually is a genius.  Herman is a member of Mensa Society and has an IQ in the top 99 percent of the United States (I'm not making that up, it's true).

Clawson- what's all the hype about?  He's 139-126 as a Head Coach over about 22 years.  In his 8th year at Wake, he's 49-47.  Ok, that's pretty good, I guess, but it's not blowing me away.  The ACC is pretty weak, and I know this, you are not having a coach who has been a Head Coach for 22 years to go 139-126 come to Va Tech, then all of a sudden in year 23 through 26, bust out 9-3 or 10-2's.  He's had plenty of sample size to suggest he's not average, but above average to pretty good, but not a big splash hire for Tech whatsoever.  I just don't see it, but again, emotion trumps thought in the US.  Wake has a 9-2 season and people just seem oblivious and lost all memory of the overall 139-126 record over 22 years as a Head Coach which is nothing special.

 

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I for one do not want Shane Beamer for exactly reasons stated above.  He may be great in the future and there is a possibility for him to come back down the road.

Clawson to me is a good choice for the simple reason what was said above is accurate, it is Wake Forest and they are not going to get high end recruits so he is doing what he has done in the past years with lesser recruits.  

Chadwell I think is still the best overall choice as years of experience plus the fact of taking a school that just moved up from D2 and made them successful.

Stay away from Freeze, that is all I will say there.

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4 hours ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Napier is fools gold in my opinion and here is why he is very, very similar to the other non-P5 coaches that have failed at the next level.  Napier may be the next Bear Bryant for all I know, but I'm telling you this, his resume and patterns are incredibly close to the guys below and it's based on a pattern of two things.  

1.  A short time at the non-P5 school.  Not large enough of a sample size to truly evaluate the Head Coach.

2.  An elite QB for the conference the non P5 coach is coaching in.

Tom Herman- Houston/Texas.  Only at Houston for......2 years.  That's it.  2 years is so short that if you get a couple of bounces or plays that go your way, you can have a solid record.  2 years is NOT enough time statistically to evaluate how well a Head Coach might do.  Herman had a solid QB

Brown at WVU/Troy-  At Troy for 4 years only.  First year was a losing record, and the last 3 years, he had an All Conference QB for 2 of those 3 years that made an NFL roster for a brief amount of time.

Fuente/Tech/Memphis- 4 years was it at Memphis and the first two were losing seasons.  He only had 2 winning seasons and yep, you guessed it, a future NFL QB

Napier- Louisiana.  This is only his 4th season at Louisiana.  He went around .500 his first year, and the last 3 years, he has a QB that is projected by some, to possibly go as high as the late 4th round.  Napier is the exact same thing that Tech, Texas, and WVU got burned on.  Very similar resume and situation with a short sample size (not at the school very long) and an elite QB which can hide the true ability of the coach over the long haul.  Again, Napier may do well at Tech if hired.  I'm not saying he will not.  ANY coach Tech hires offers some risk.  That's a given and there's no way around it and no way to 100% be sure that the guy will win or lose, but with Napier, the pattern with the other 3 above is there.  It's spot on and dangerous in my opinion.  The trend in college football or "way of thinking" has been to look for the non-P5 coach who might be a "genius" and if he's winning, hire him.  That's not a bad way of thinking, as long as you take a deep look into the coach at the non P5 school.

Chadwell and why he is DIFFERENT- 10 years...  10 years of sample size, not 2 or 4 years, but 10.  That's a decade.  He has won at 3 different schools and not only that, at 3 different levels of play in college football with multiple quarterbacks and teams.  This is why he is DIFFERENT from the rest in my opinion regarding risk......or less risk.   

Just my take on Napier.  I'm not sold.  I've seen this film before and I'm not a fan of rinsing and repeating.  If not Chadwell, I would prefer Tech get a coordinator at a P5 school (if that's possible).  Grimes obviously, the guy at Notre Dame (DC) who is a great recruiter.  I even like Leftwich. The risk with these types is that they haven't been a Head Coach.  Always......there will be some risk unless we land Nick Saban, lol.  No way to avoid risk, but I think some......are less risky than others.  Napier fits the bill of the 3 mentioned above that didn't work out. For me, the guy at ND, Grimes, Chadwell, Leftwich, O'Brian are better choices regarding less risk.

Freeze- Fools Gold.  My initial take was that he was the guy.  I feel completely opposite now.  At Mississippi, he went 12-25 over 5 years.  I know, it's Mississippi, but there's nothing there special with that record.  Now at Liberty....in his third year.  Who's the QB?  He struck gold with a portal transfer, and a QB who is going to get drafted and play in the NFL.  Again, it's the absolute perfect setup just like Fu, Brown, Herman, and Napier.  It's a bad choice, especially when you had the morality component with Freeze.

The above are just one dude's opinions, with a few supporting facts to make my opinion.  Whoever Va Tech gets, I will support em and will be very excited compared to the dumb dumb we just ran off.  Key takeaway point I'm trying to make (and struggle to do so as usual) is that if you start thinking non P5 Head Coach who is currently winning, you better take a deep look a how long (or how short) that coach has been at the non P5 school, and you need to take a look if they won the lottery by having an elite QB for that conference or level of play which can make that non-P5 coach look like a "genius" when he's actually anything but a genius.  Fu, Brown, and Herman are perfect examples.  Although, in Herman's defense, he actually is a genius.  Herman is a member of Mensa Society and has an IQ in the top 99 percent of the United States (I'm not making that up, it's true).

Clawson- what's all the hype about?  He's 139-126 as a Head Coach over about 22 years.  In his 8th year at Wake, he's 49-47.  Ok, that's pretty good, I guess, but it's not blowing me away.  The ACC is pretty weak, and I know this, you are not having a coach who has been a Head Coach for 22 years to go 139-126 come to Va Tech, then all of a sudden in year 23 through 26, bust out 9-3 or 10-2's.  He's had plenty of sample size to suggest he's not average, but above average to pretty good, but not a big splash hire for Tech whatsoever.  I just don't see it, but again, emotion trumps thought in the US.  Wake has a 9-2 season and people just seem oblivious and lost all memory of the overall 139-126 record over 22 years as a Head Coach which is nothing special.

 

So who should they hire and why?

And you keep bringing up how good the QB is for some of the coaches...do you realize most of the time this coach is the reason the QB is there in the first place?

Sample size lol...how long should a coach be somewhere before they can be judge good or bad coach...good grief nobody knows how a coach will perform at a new place

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57 minutes ago, Hokiebird7 said:

So who should they hire and why?

And you keep bringing up how good the QB is for some of the coaches...do you realize most of the time this coach is the reason the QB is there in the first place?

Sample size lol...how long should a coach be somewhere before they can be judge good or bad coach...good grief nobody knows how a coach will perform at a new place

Question 1. I don't know. I'm not Babcock. I'm a fan and gave my opinion (like 1000s of other Tech fans) on who I feel they shouldn't hire. Back at ya, who should they hire?

Statement 2. Debatable. It's sometimes true and sometimes not true. A qb could be at a school for a combination of reasons.

Statement 3. Sample size. That's basic statistics in which the more you have, the greater confidence you have to predict less error. That's taught around the US in every college for decades in basic stats class, so I'm not sure what your argument is. But, to break it down to your level, common sense tells the normal person if we have a coach that has won for 10 years and a coach that's won for 2 years and all things are equal, we feel better or little more confident in the 10 yr guy.

Your last good grief statement on nobody knowing on how well a coach will perform at the new place. I agree, and I echoed the same thing two times in the post. 

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Last of all, Who should we hire? I told you, I don't know. Babcock has a shi+ton more info in details than you and I.  As a fan, from my perspective as to who I would be really happy with? Leftwich, Grimes, and Chadwell tied for 1st. O'Brian and Freeman from ND tied for 2nd. Any of those 5 and I'm elated.

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4 minutes ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Question 1. I don't know. I'm not Babcock. I'm a fan and gave my opinion (like 1000s of other Tech fans) on who I feel they shouldn't hire. Back at ya, who should they hire?

Statement 2. Debatable. It's sometimes true and sometimes not true. A qb could be at a school for a combination of reasons.

Statement 3. Sample size. That's basic statistics in which the more you have, the greater confidence you have to predict less error. That's taught around the US in every college for decades in basic stats class, so I'm not sure what your argument is. But, to break it down to your level, common sense tells the normal person if we have a coach that has won for 10 years and a coach that's won for 2 years and all things are equal, we feel better or little more confident in the 10 yr guy.

Your last good grief statement on nobody knowing on how well a coach will perform at the new place. I agree, and I echoed the same thing two times in the post. 

Im not one to say I want this guy or this guy...as you said it's whit's job and he better get it right this time....or his arrogant smug ass will be the next one out of town.

I just think it's comical watching fans say this guy or that guy isn't going to do good because of this or that. People change their opinion on a person based off of one game....Louisiana scores 10 points all the sudden the "UL offense is same as VTs" crowd...etc....never fails

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2 minutes ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Last of all, Who should we hire? I told you, I don't know. Babcock has a shi+ton more info in details than you and I.  As a fan, from my perspective as to who I would be really happy with? Leftwich, Grimes, and Chadwell tied for 1st. O'Brian and Freeman from ND tied for 2nd. Any of those 5 and I'm elated.

Leftwich? Be realistic...he isn't leaving NFL for VT...hell may as well shoot for Saban or Dabo

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8 minutes ago, Hokiebird7 said:

Im not one to say I want this guy or this guy...as you said it's whit's job and he better get it right this time....or his arrogant smug ass will be the next one out of town.

I just think it's comical watching fans say this guy or that guy isn't going to do good because of this or that. People change their opinion on a person based off of one game....Louisiana scores 10 points all the sudden the "UL offense is same as VTs" crowd...etc....never fails

Agree with everything you said. In my post, I pointed out that Napier may be the next Bear Bryant at Tech and that I have no idea how he would do. At Tech as a freshmen, an instructor taught me, if you give an opinion, at least give reasons why you feel that way and some facts to support it. I have the opinion that the ones I named are risky in my opinion only and gave reasons. That's far better than TSLs standard.

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1 minute ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Agree with everything you said. In my post, I pointed out that Napier may be the next Bear Bryant at Tech and thst I have no idea how he would do. At Tech as a freshmen, an instructor taught me, if you give an opinion, at least give reasons why you feel that way and some facts to support it. I have the opinion that the ones I named are risky in my opinion only and gave reasons. That's far better than TSLs standard.

Every new coach is risky

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Even if Tech gets Napier, Clawson or Freeze, I will he happy and support em. The guy we had was just incompetent in so many ways. Theres a great RT article on how he kind lost the program and it gives an insiders look, or a viewpoint from within/from the standpoint of VT coaches, players, AD, former players. 

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2 minutes ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Even if Tech gets Napier, Clawson or Freeze, I will he happy and support em. The guy we had was just incompetent in so many ways. Theres a great RT article on how he kind lost the program and it gives an insiders look, or a viewpoint from within/from the standpoint of VT coaches, players, AD, former players. 

I see a Fuente article in the paper I just bypass it...he's finally gone that's all I'm worried about

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