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Computer Predictions and Chances of Winning for State Semi's


BandanaVTDavis4321
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Class 1

Riverheads 35, Essex 28.  65% chance for Riverheads of winning.  I'm taking Essex.

George Wythe 31, Grundy 27.  60% chance for Wytheville winning.

Hypothetical matchup- Riverheads 40, Wytheville 24, 86% chance of Riverheads winning.

Class 2

Central Woodstock 26, Poquoson 7,  88% chance of Woodstock winning per Calpreps.

Graham 41, Appomattox County 24.  88% chance of Graham winning per Calpreps as both Graham and Central are favored by 17.  The problem is, the two teams that are 17 point dogs don't like to play by the odds in big games, and both have a history of rising to the occasion.  

Hypothetical matchup- Graham 31, Central-Woodstock 21, Graham with a 74% chance of winning.

Class 3

Heritage 27, Christiansburg 14.  80% chance of Heritage winning.

Phoebus 44, Brentsville District 7.  Phoebus with 99% chance of winning.

Hypothetical Matchup- Phoebus 34, Heritage 12.  Phoebus with an 88% chance of winning.

Class 4

EC Glass 31, Kettle Run 28. 58% chance of Glass winning

Dinwiddie 38, Warwick 17.  90% chance of Dinwiddie winning.

Hypothetical Matchup- Dinwiddie 41, Glass 26.  84% chance of winning for Dinwiddie.

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6 hours ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Class 1

Riverheads 35, Essex 28.  65% chance for Riverheads of winning.  I'm taking Essex.

George Wythe 31, Grundy 27.  60% chance for Wytheville winning.

Hypothetical matchup- Riverheads 40, Wytheville 24, 86% chance of Riverheads winning.

Class 2

Central Woodstock 26, Poquoson 7,  88% chance of Woodstock winning per Calpreps.

Graham 41, Appomattox County 24.  88% chance of Graham winning per Calpreps as both Graham and Central are favored by 17.  The problem is, the two teams that are 17 point dogs don't like to play by the odds in big games, and both have a history of rising to the occasion.  

Hypothetical matchup- Graham 31, Central-Woodstock 21, Graham with a 74% chance of winning.

Class 3

Heritage 27, Christiansburg 14.  80% chance of Heritage winning.

Phoebus 44, Brentsville District 7.  Phoebus with 99% chance of winning.

Hypothetical Matchup- Phoebus 34, Heritage 12.  Phoebus with an 88% chance of winning.

Class 4

EC Glass 31, Kettle Run 28. 58% chance of Glass winning

Dinwiddie 38, Warwick 17.  90% chance of Dinwiddie winning.

Hypothetical Matchup- Dinwiddie 41, Glass 26.  84% chance of winning for Dinwiddie.

I think it’s nuts that there is a chance that graham wins class 2, and has a win over gw (possible class 1 champ) and half a win over glass (scrimmage possible class 4 champ.) I get that there is a lot of football left, but the fact that it’s a possibility blows my mind.

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42 minutes ago, Faithful G-man said:

I think it’s nuts that there is a chance that graham wins class 2, and has a win over gw (possible class 1 champ) and half a win over glass (scrimmage possible class 4 champ.) I get that there is a lot of football left, but the fact that it’s a possibility blows my mind.

I think it show’s strength of schedule matters when it comes to making a deep run. 

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6 hours ago, Gridiron60 said:

You love this computer stuff , don’t you, @BandanaVTDavis4321! You got As in math, didn’t you? I heard there were actually people who love math in this world! 😂

I hope CalPreps is accurate at least one one of those projections! 😂 

Thanks for sharing! 

Go GMen! 

Nerd, I am.  I excelled in Basic Math.  I excelled in English 9th and 10th grade, by 11th grade, things got to tough.  If I had enough difficulty with English, imagine when they tried to teach me Spanish.

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Graham and Princeton...... just bad luck for Graham.  If I'm not mistaken (Bluefield Researcher would know this), Graham has done this before with Princeton when Graham and Princeton have a series, and Princeton is God awful, then the series ends, and Princeton gets some wins.  It just isn't meant to be for Graham by having a series with Princeton.  It's as if the God's are in play and it's meant for Princeton to be terrible when they play one another.  Princeton did have a really good team this year.  Several very close losses that involved a turnover inside the opponents 10 yd line.  The loss to Parkersburg South by a touchdown, and Parkersburg South is playing for the state title next weekend, and of course, Princeton playing in a monsoon against GW where passing the football is just near impossible.  I know many may not believe this, but Princeton, even with the record, might have been the 2nd best team in the coverage area behind Graham.

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10 minutes ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Graham and Princeton...... just bad luck for Graham.  If I'm not mistaken (Bluefield Researcher would know this), Graham has done this before with Princeton when Graham and Princeton have a series, and Princeton is God awful, then the series ends, and Princeton gets some wins.  It just isn't meant to be for Graham by having a series with Princeton.  It's as if the God's are in play and it's meant for Princeton to be terrible when they play one another.  Princeton did have a really good team this year.  Several very close losses that involved a turnover inside the opponents 10 yd line.  The loss to Parkersburg South by a touchdown, and Parkersburg South is playing for the state title next weekend, and of course, Princeton playing in a monsoon against GW where passing the football is just near impossible.  I know many may not believe this, but Princeton, even with the record, might have been the 2nd best team in the coverage area behind Graham.

Princeton won't play Graham. Maybe this changes with a new coach at Princeton.

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