Jump to content
SWVASPORTS.COM

Recommended Posts

Posted

There's obviously multiple toss-up games left on the schedule, so I'm not predicting the winner of those, just projecting the points on a what-if scenario. For teams/games I'm not familiar with I used Massey Ratings to predict those outcomes. They have a very nice setup to just go down the line on the weekly schedule without having to look up each individual team. That can be found here: https://www.on3.com/high-school/scores/football/virginia/

In a battle of 10-0 teams, Union easily outpoints Glenvar. It doesn't matter if Union loses to Lebanon or Abingdon, a 9-1 Union team will not outpoint a 10-0 Glenvar. Daniel Boone has been a boat anchor this year.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
         
01.) Glenvar 10-0 266 26.6

 

If Union, Graham and Ridgeview win out. If just one game flips, Graham can get the 4th seed. Like Central losing to Grundy(very possible).

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Ridgeview 9-1 250 25
03.) Lebanon 8-2 237 23.7
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Graham 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Union, Graham and GC win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Gate City 8-2 249 24.9
03.) Lebanon 8-2 237 23.7
04.) Ridgeview 8-2 232 23.2
05.) Graham 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon and GC win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Lebanon 10-0 274 27.4
02.) Union 9-1 258 25.8
03.) Gate City 8-2 248 24.8
04.) Ridgeview 8-2 231 23.1
05.) Va High 7-3 220 22
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 197 19.7
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon and Ridgeview win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Lebanon 10-0 274 27.4
02.) Union 9-1 258 25.8
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 249 24.9
04.) Gate City 7-3 229 22.9
05.) Va High 7-3 220 22
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon beats Union, but loses to Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 259 25.9
02.) Lebanon 9-1 257 25.7
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 249 24.9
04.) Graham 7-3 230 23
05.) Gate City 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 220 22
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon loses to Union, but beats Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Lebanon 9-1 254 25.4
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 250 25
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

 

Posted

1D doesn't have nearly the drama at the top. Eastside will cruise to #1. Rye Cove will finish #2 or #3. Chilhowie, Holston, Rural Retreat and possibly Northwood battling for #2-#6. Massey doesn't like Northwood at all.

For the purpose of PPs, I am including Tri-Cities Christian into the equation even though the "Official" 1D PP numbers have some phantom points mixed in for Hurley and Twin Valley.

Chilhowie wins out. Twin Springs/Thomas Walker may very well determine the #8 seed.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Eastside 10-0 252 25.2
02.) Chilhowie 9-1 242 24.2
03.) Rye Cove 7-3 206 20.6
04.) Rural Retreat 6-4 191 19.1
05.) Honaker 5-5 186 18.6
06.) Holston 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Northwood 6-4 168 16.8
08.) Thomas Walker 5-5 165 16.5
09.) Hurley 6-4 156 15.6

Rye Cove wins out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Eastside 10-0 252 25.2
02.) Rye Cove 8-2 225 22.5
03.) Chilhowie 8-2 224 22.4
04.) Rural Retreat 6-4 190 19
05.) Honaker 5-5 186 18.6
06.) Holston 6-4 172 17.2
07.) Northwood 6-4 169 16.9
08.) Twin Springs 6-4 167 16.7
09.) Hurley 6-4 156 15.6

What if RR wins out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Eastside 10-0 252 25.2
02.) Rye Cove 8-2 223 22.3
03.) Rural Retreat 7-3 208 20.8
04.) Chilhowie 7-3 207 20.7
05.) Honaker 5-5 186 18.6
06.) Holston 6-4 172 17.2
07.) Northwood 6-4 169 16.9
08.) Twin Springs 6-4 167 16.7
09.) Hurley 6-4 156 15.6

What if RR wins out and Chilhowie beats RC.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Eastside 10-0 252 25.2
02.) Chilhowie 8-2 225 22.5
03.) Rural Retreat 7-3 210 21
04.) Rye Cove 7-3 205 20.5
05.) Honaker 5-5 186 18.6
06.) Holston 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Northwood 6-4 170 17
08.) Twin Springs 6-4 166 16.6
09.) Hurley 6-4 156 15.6
Posted

1 C shapes out like this. With a win over either Grayson or GW, Giles gets the #1 spot. These are all assuming forfeits are taken for Galax's remaining games.

Giles over Grayson.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 209 20.9
02.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
03.) Narrows 5-5 194 19.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
05.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
06.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Giles over GW.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 210 21
02.) Grayson Co 6-4 196 19.6
03.) Narrows 5-5 194 19.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
05.) George Wythe 6-4 186 18.6
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Giles loses to both GW and Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
02.) Grayson Co 6-4 195 19.5
03.) Giles 7-3 193 19.3
04.) Narrows 5-5 193 19.3
05.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

If Narrows beats Honaker and Giles loses to both GW and Grayson. Things get a little more interesting.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Narrows 6-4 208 20.8
02.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
03.) Giles 7-3 195 19.5
04.) Grayson Co 6-4 195 19.5
05.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Narrows over Honaker. Giles over Grayson.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 211 21.1
02.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
03.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
05.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
06.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Narrows over Honaker. Giles over GW.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 212 21.2
02.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
03.) Grayson Co 6-4 196 19.6
04.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
05.) George Wythe 6-4 186 18.6
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3
Posted

2 C isn't super complicated. Glenvar will be #1 barring a spectacular upset. Floyd is looking like the #2 seed.

If Floyd wins out, besides their loss to Glenvar.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Glenvar 10-0 266 26.6
02.) Floyd Co 9-1 260 26
03.) Gretna 8-2 242 24.2
04.) Radford 6-4 212 21.2
05.) Nelson Co 7-3 201 20.1
06.) James River-B 5-5 195 19.5
07.) Appomattox 5-5 191 19.1
08.) Dan River 4-6 165 16.5
09.) Liberty-Bed 2-8 156 15.6

Radford over Floyd.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Glenvar 10-0 266 26.6
02.) Floyd Co 8-2 243 24.3
03.) Gretna 8-2 242 24.2
04.) Radford 7-3 231 23.1
05.) Nelson Co 7-3 201 20.1
06.) James River-B 5-5 195 19.5
07.) Appomattox 5-5 191 19.1
08.) Dan River 4-6 165 16.5
09.) Liberty-Bed 2-8 156 15.6

What if Floyd goes 10-0.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Floyd Co 10-0 280 28
02.) Glenvar 9-1 246 24.6
03.) Gretna 8-2 242 24.2
04.) Radford 6-4 212 21.2
05.) Nelson Co 7-3 201 20.1
06.) James River-B 5-5 195 19.5
07.) Appomattox 5-5 191 19.1
08.) Dan River 4-6 165 16.5
09.) Liberty-Bed 2-8 155 15.5

Even though they're underdogs, what if Appo wins out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Glenvar 10-0 266 26.6
02.) Floyd Co 9-1 260 26
03.) Appomattox 7-3 227 22.7
04.) Gretna 7-3 226 22.6
05.) Radford 6-4 212 21.2
06.) Nelson Co 7-3 201 20.1
07.) James River-B 5-5 195 19.5
08.) Dan River 4-6 165 16.5
09.) Liberty-Bed 2-8 156 15.6
Posted
52 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

There's obviously multiple toss-up games left on the schedule, so I'm not predicting the winner of those, just projecting the points on a what-if scenario. For teams/games I'm not familiar with I used Massey Ratings to predict those outcomes. They have a very nice setup to just go down the line on the weekly schedule without having to look up each individual team. That can be found here: https://www.on3.com/high-school/scores/football/virginia/

In a battle of 10-0 teams, Union easily outpoints Glenvar. It doesn't matter if Union loses to Lebanon or Abingdon, a 9-1 Union team will not outpoint a 10-0 Glenvar. Daniel Boone has been a boat anchor this year.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
         
01.) Glenvar 10-0 266 26.6

 

If Union, Graham and Ridgeview win out. If just one game flips, Graham can get the 4th seed. Like Central losing to Grundy(very possible).

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Ridgeview 9-1 250 25
03.) Lebanon 8-2 237 23.7
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Graham 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Union, Graham and GC win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Gate City 8-2 249 24.9
03.) Lebanon 8-2 237 23.7
04.) Ridgeview 8-2 232 23.2
05.) Graham 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon and GC win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Lebanon 10-0 274 27.4
02.) Union 9-1 258 25.8
03.) Gate City 8-2 248 24.8
04.) Ridgeview 8-2 231 23.1
05.) Va High 7-3 220 22
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 197 19.7
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon and Ridgeview win out.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Lebanon 10-0 274 27.4
02.) Union 9-1 258 25.8
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 249 24.9
04.) Gate City 7-3 229 22.9
05.) Va High 7-3 220 22
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon beats Union, but loses to Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 259 25.9
02.) Lebanon 9-1 257 25.7
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 249 24.9
04.) Graham 7-3 230 23
05.) Gate City 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Va High 7-3 220 22
07.) Richlands 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Lee 4-6 172 17.2
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

If Lebanon loses to Union, but beats Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 278 27.8
02.) Lebanon 9-1 254 25.4
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 250 25
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Va High 7-3 219 21.9
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 173 17.3
09.) Tazewell 2-8 146 14.6

 

Could you add what happens if Va high wins out or splits with Leb/graham

Posted
3 minutes ago, Stelley said:

Could you add what happens if Va high wins out or splits with Leb/graham

Certainly!

Va High wins out and Lebanon finishes 7-3

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 274 27.4
02.) Va High 9-1 250 25
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 248 24.8
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Lebanon 7-3 213 21.3
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 171 17.1
09.) Tazewell 2-8 147 14.7

Va High loses to Graham, beats Lebanon.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 9-1 248 24.8
03.) Va High 8-2 233 23.3
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Graham 7-3 229 22.9
06.) Lebanon 7-3 213 21.3
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 171 17.1
09.) Tazewell 2-8 147 14.7

Va High beats Graham, loses to Lebanon. Lebanon loses to Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 9-1 248 24.8
03.) Lebanon 8-2 232 23.2
04.) Va High 8-2 232 23.2
05.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
06.) Graham 6-4 211 21.1
07.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
08.) Lee 4-6 171 17.1
09.) Tazewell 2-8 147 14.7

Va High beats Graham, loses to Lebanon. Lebanon beats Graham.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Lebanon 9-1 248 24.8
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 248 24.8
04.) Va High 8-2 231 23.1
05.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
06.) Richlands 6-4 195 19.5
07.) Graham 5-5 192 19.2
08.) Lee 4-6 171 17.1
09.) Tazewell 2-8 147 14.7
Posted
53 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

1 C shapes out like this. With a win over either Grayson or GW, Giles gets the #1 spot. These are all assuming forfeits are taken for Galax's remaining games.

Giles over Grayson.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 209 20.9
02.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
03.) Narrows 5-5 194 19.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
05.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
06.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Giles over GW.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 210 21
02.) Grayson Co 6-4 196 19.6
03.) Narrows 5-5 194 19.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
05.) George Wythe 6-4 186 18.6
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Giles loses to both GW and Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
02.) Grayson Co 6-4 195 19.5
03.) Giles 7-3 193 19.3
04.) Narrows 5-5 193 19.3
05.) Craig Co 7-3 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 182 18.2
07.) Bath Co 5-4 142 15.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

If Narrows beats Honaker and Giles loses to both GW and Grayson. Things get a little more interesting.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Narrows 6-4 208 20.8
02.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
03.) Giles 7-3 195 19.5
04.) Grayson Co 6-4 195 19.5
05.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Narrows over Honaker. Giles over Grayson.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 211 21.1
02.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
03.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
04.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
05.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
06.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Narrows over Honaker. Giles over GW.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 8-2 212 21.2
02.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
03.) Grayson Co 6-4 196 19.6
04.) Craig Co 7-3 192 19.2
05.) George Wythe 6-4 186 18.6
06.) Parry McCluer 7-3 183 18.3
07.) Bath Co 5-4 143 15.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Fort Chiswell 1-9 113 11.3

Could you do a scenario where Giles beats Grayson, loses to GW and Craig only loses to Narrows? 

Posted
4 minutes ago, SWVAgridiron said:

Could you do a scenario where Giles beats Grayson, loses to GW and Craig only loses to Narrows? 

But of course...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Craig Co 9-1 224 22.4
02.) Giles 8-2 211 21.1
03.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
04.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
05.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 164 16.4
07.) Bath Co 4-5 125 13.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Bland Co 2-8 114 11.4
Posted
3 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

But of course...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Craig Co 9-1 224 22.4
02.) Giles 8-2 211 21.1
03.) Narrows 6-4 209 20.9
04.) George Wythe 7-3 204 20.4
05.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 164 16.4
07.) Bath Co 4-5 125 13.88889
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Bland Co 2-8 114 11.4

You’re awesome. Final question… who gets the #1 spot if Giles and Craig both finish 9-1?

Posted
1 minute ago, SWVAgridiron said:

You’re awesome. Final question… who gets the #1 spot if Giles and Craig both finish 9-1?

Looks like Giles unless Bath Co beats Narrows.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 9-1 226 22.6
02.) Craig Co 9-1 223 22.3
03.) Narrows 5-5 195 19.5
04.) George Wythe 6-4 185 18.5
05.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 163 16.3
07.) Bath Co 4-5 124 13.77778
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Bland Co 2-8 114 11.4

Bath over Narrows. Tie breakers make my head hurt.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Giles 9-1 224 22.4
02.) Craig Co 9-1 224 22.4
03.) George Wythe 6-4 185 18.5
04.) Narrows 4-6 180 18
05.) Grayson Co 5-5 177 17.7
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 164 16.4
07.) Bath Co 5-4 139 15.44444
08.) Auburn 5-5 137 13.7
09.) Bland Co 2-8 114 11.4
Posted
2 hours ago, TigerPride said:

Honaker might need some luck to go 3-1 to finish the season, without Musick the youngsters are gonna have to step up.

Is Musick done for the year?

Posted
19 minutes ago, THS6805 said:

What would it take for tazewell to get 8 seed?

Tazewell would have to beat Richlands and Marion. Then, Battle would need to beat Lee. Not out of the realm of possibility, but a task for sure.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 10-0 280 28
02.) Lebanon 9-1 252 25.2
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 250 25
04.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
05.) Va High 7-3 215 21.5
06.) Graham 6-4 210 21
07.) Richlands 5-5 180 18
08.) Tazewell 3-7 163 16.3
09.) Lee 3-7 158 15.8

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...