Playoff Projections/Scenarios

[KW23]

On 10/25/2025 at 6:47 PM, Union_Fan said:

There's definitely a mess brewing in 1D. So many ways these games can go. Add to that mix, the miscalculating of TCC.

Top 4 win out. RR loses their remaining games.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	244	24.4
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	238	23.8
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Honaker	6-4	201	20.1
05.)	Holston	7-3	187	18.7
06.)	Northwood	7-3	184	18.4
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
08.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	148	14.8
09.)	Hurley	5-5	144	14.4

Holston over Chilhowie

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	242	24.2
02.)	Chilhowie	8-2	220	22
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	208	20.8
04.)	Holston	8-2	206	20.6
05.)	Honaker	6-4	202	20.2
06.)	Northwood	7-3	184	18.4
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
08.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	148	14.8
09.)	Hurley	5-5	145	14.5

Holston over Chilhowie, but loses to RR

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	244	24.4
02.)	Chilhowie	8-2	221	22.1
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	208	20.8
04.)	Honaker	6-4	202	20.2
05.)	Holston	7-3	192	19.2
06.)	Northwood	7-3	185	18.5
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
08.)	Rural Retreat	4-6	159	15.9
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	148	14.8

Holston and Honaker lose out.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	248	24.8
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	238	23.8
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	205	20.5
04.)	Northwood	8-2	201	20.1
05.)	Holston	6-4	174	17.4
06.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	173	17.3
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	172	17.2
08.)	Honaker	4-6	168	16.8
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	148	14.8

RR wins out.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	248	24.8
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	238	23.8
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	205	20.5
04.)	Northwood	8-2	201	20.1
05.)	Holston	6-4	174	17.4
06.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	173	17.3
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	172	17.2
08.)	Honaker	4-6	168	16.8
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	148	14.8

 

If RR wins one of their two remaining games, they'll be in at #8. Honaker and Holston are in even if they lose their last 2.
TW has to win out to get in. TS has to win one of their last 2 to get in.

 

What if RR wins out and Honaker beats Northwood.

What if RR beats holston and loses to Honaker...and Honaker beats Northwood.

[swvafbrespect]

Heard that the QB from Honaker struggled with an injury towards the end of the PH game. Someone said he collapsed from some sort of leg injury. If he doesn't play it would hurt Honaker's chances greatly.

[Union_Fan]

10 hours ago, KW23 said:

What if RR wins out and Honaker beats Northwood.

What if RR beats holston and loses to Honaker...and Honaker beats Northwood.

What if RR wins out and Honaker beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	248	24.8
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	240	24
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	205	20.5
04.)	Honaker	5-5	188	18.8
05.)	Northwood	7-3	186	18.6
06.)	Holston	6-4	176	17.6
07.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	175	17.5
08.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	147	14.7

 

What if RR beats holston and loses to Honaker...and Honaker beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	246	24.6
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	240	24
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	207	20.7
04.)	Honaker	6-4	203	20.3
05.)	Northwood	7-3	185	18.5
06.)	Holston	6-4	176	17.6
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
08.)	Rural Retreat	4-6	159	15.9
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	147	14.7

 

Barring anything unforeseen, it does look like RR will snag at least the 8th seed with one more win.

[BobSmith]

27 minutes ago, swvafbrespect said:

Heard that the QB from Honaker struggled with an injury towards the end of the PH game. Someone said he collapsed from some sort of leg injury. If he doesn't play it would hurt Honaker's chances greatly.

Heard it was a possible torn groin.

[Union_Fan]

12 hours ago, bigunionfan_ said:

Is there any chance that Ridgeview could drop to a 4 seed? Or are they locked to at least get a 3?

It's funny you mention this because I was playing around with the numbers more and found a couple of unlikely, but realistic possibilities. I was going to post these today.

 

If GC beats Ridgeview, Va High beats Lebanon, John Battle beats Lee and PH beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	10-0	276	27.6
02.)	Gate City	8-2	247	24.7
03.)	Va High	8-2	237	23.7
04.)	Ridgeview	8-2	236	23.6
05.)	Graham	7-3	228	22.8
06.)	Lebanon	7-3	215	21.5
07.)	Richlands	6-4	194	19.4
08.)	Lee	3-7	156	15.6
09.)	John Battle	2-8	151	15.1

 

I also found this path for Graham to get to #3. Lebanon over Va High,  and any THREE of (Lee over Battle, Northwood over PH, Holston over RR, Northwood over Honaker). News of Honaker's QB makes this scenario even more likely. Like I stated previously, I'm not certain, but I "think" Graham wins the tiebreaker over GC.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	10-0	278	27.8
02.)	Ridgeview	9-1	252	25.2
03.)	Gate City	7-3	228	22.8
04.)	Graham	7-3	228	22.8
05.)	Lebanon	8-2	225	22.5
06.)	Va High	7-3	215	21.5
07.)	Richlands	6-4	195	19.5
08.)	Lee	4-6	168	16.8
09.)	Tazewell	2-8	146	14.6

[BobSmith]

2 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

It's funny you mention this because I was playing around with the numbers more and found a couple of unlikely, but realistic possibilities. I was going to post these today.

 

If GC beats Ridgeview, Va High beats Lebanon, John Battle beats Lee and PH beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	10-0	276	27.6
02.)	Gate City	8-2	247	24.7
03.)	Va High	8-2	237	23.7
04.)	Ridgeview	8-2	236	23.6
05.)	Graham	7-3	228	22.8
06.)	Lebanon	7-3	215	21.5
07.)	Richlands	6-4	194	19.4
08.)	Lee	3-7	156	15.6
09.)	John Battle	2-8	151	15.1

 

I also found this path for Graham to get to #3. Lebanon over Va High,  and any THREE of (Lee over Battle, Northwood over PH, Holston over RR, Northwood over Honaker). News of Honaker's QB makes this scenario even more likely. Like I stated previously, I'm not certain, but I "think" Graham wins the tiebreaker over GC.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	10-0	278	27.8
02.)	Ridgeview	9-1	252	25.2
03.)	Gate City	7-3	228	22.8
04.)	Graham	7-3	228	22.8
05.)	Lebanon	8-2	225	22.5
06.)	Va High	7-3	215	21.5
07.)	Richlands	6-4	195	19.5
08.)	Lee	4-6	168	16.8
09.)	Tazewell	2-8	146	14.6

What happens if Richlands beats Graham (unlikely I know, but humor me)?

[Union_Fan]

1 minute ago, BobSmith said:

What happens if Richlands beats Graham (unlikely I know, but humor me)?

Something like this. With 2D and 1D so intertwined, it's fun to watch the trickle down effect on a single game outcome change.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	10-0	276	27.6
02.)	Ridgeview	9-1	252	25.2
03.)	Gate City	7-3	230	23
04.)	Lebanon	8-2	226	22.6
05.)	Va High	7-3	216	21.6
06.)	Richlands	7-3	212	21.2
07.)	Graham	6-4	211	21.1
08.)	Lee	4-6	169	16.9
09.)	Tazewell	2-8	146	14.6

[KW23]

1 hour ago, Union_Fan said:

What if RR wins out and Honaker beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	248	24.8
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	240	24
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	205	20.5
04.)	Honaker	5-5	188	18.8
05.)	Northwood	7-3	186	18.6
06.)	Holston	6-4	176	17.6
07.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	175	17.5
08.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	147	14.7

 

What if RR beats holston and loses to Honaker...and Honaker beats Northwood.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Eastside	10-0	246	24.6
02.)	Chilhowie	9-1	240	24
03.)	Rye Cove	7-3	207	20.7
04.)	Honaker	6-4	203	20.3
05.)	Northwood	7-3	185	18.5
06.)	Holston	6-4	176	17.6
07.)	Twin Springs	6-4	171	17.1
08.)	Rural Retreat	4-6	159	15.9
09.)	Thomas Walker	4-6	147	14.7

 

Barring anything unforeseen, it does look like RR will snag at least the 8th seed with one more win.

Thanks for doing this one more win will be tough without our QB and now another injury.  Potential was there this year but injuries have really piled up...mix that with the dumb coaching decisions that cost us two wins....Eastside and George Wythe and we might be on the outside looking in ....if our qb doesn't get healthy playoffs won't matter first round will be beat down.  If these last few games is any indication of next year...we are in for a really bad season in 2026

[#1BLUESFAN]

1 hour ago, KW23 said:

Thanks for doing this one more win will be tough without our QB and now another injury.  Potential was there this year but injuries have really piled up...mix that with the dumb coaching decisions that cost us two wins....Eastside and George Wythe and we might be on the outside looking in ....if our qb doesn't get healthy playoffs won't matter first round will be beat down.  If these last few games is any indication of next year...we are in for a really bad season in 2026

That will be ok with me maybe that young stud of a qb ya got will decide to play on the other end of swords creek …he would look great representing that lightning R on his helmet 

[BobSmith]

2 minutes ago, #1BLUESFAN said:

That will be ok with me maybe that young stud of a qb ya got will decide to play on the other end of swords creek …he would look great representing that lightning R on his helmet 

I believe he is talking about Rural Retreat's QB being injured.

[swvafbrespect]

So the Honaker QB is not injured? Looked hobbled on Friday.

[BobSmith]

Just now, swvafbrespect said:

So the Honaker QB is not injured? Looked hobbled on Friday.

Yes, he appears to be injured as well with a possible torn groin (rumored).

[KW23]

Yeah I was talking about rural retreat..I know nothing about honakers QB other than he was good week 1 when i watched him in the coal bowl vs Lebanon.  He will be something special the next three years

[tornado99]

I know football is a rough game and injuries can happen to anyone at anytime, but do you all think there seems to be more recently, especially to high impact players? 
Just speculating, but does anyone think at all levels it could be related to turf and/or many more reps during development whether by overuse or simply more opportunities to get injured?

[1inStripes]

Overuse is a very real thing.  Kids need some down time to recover here and there.  I think turf has some drawbacks but isn't the root cause of the issues we are seeing as a whole.

[Stelley]

1 hour ago, tornado99 said:

I know football is a rough game and injuries can happen to anyone at anytime, but do you all think there seems to be more recently, especially to high impact players? 
Just speculating, but does anyone think at all levels it could be related to turf and/or many more reps during development whether by overuse or simply more opportunities to get injured?

I think turf is a huge risk factor. Using Honaker as an example, Multiple players have blown their ACLs out 

[tornado99]

Just now, Stelley said:

I think turf is a huge risk factor. Using Honaker as an example, Multiple players have blown their ACLs out 

There were some memorable Richlands injuries over the years on that same turf. I don’t know the extent, but Richlands had a couple others go down with knee/lower leg injuries at Tazewell.

[KW23]

Turf is definitely worse than grass that's why pro players prefer grass over turf...unfortunately almost all NC schools now have turf...isnt Honaker the only hogo school with turf?

[Stelley]

11 minutes ago, KW23 said:

Turf is definitely worse than grass that's why pro players prefer grass over turf...unfortunately almost all NC schools now have turf...isnt Honaker the only hogo school with turf?

Yes it is. I think the only schools with it in D are Honaker, Taz Co schools, Central, and Ridgeview if I’m not mistaken

[SwvaOG]

From watching them this year....if Honaker's QB is out....they are going to be really hurting.  His feet bought so many opportunities for WRs to get open.  Unless that have a really good back up....that will be a devastating injury.  If he did have a groin tear....it will nag him the rest of the year.  I had that the preseason of my senior year....took me until the 2nd/3rd game of the year to clear up.  

Additionally, if I was a Honaker fan, I'd buy that kid a truck load of protein powder for Christmas.  He is stick thin.

[techfan]

Is there no way even with a win over Wise that Grundy can sneak into the 8 seed?

[1inStripes]

Grundy will only pick up 20 points with that win in total.  They will probably only end up with a rating around the 14 range at best.

[Wolf1207]

1 hour ago, SwvaOG said:

 

Additionally, if I was a Honaker fan, I'd buy that kid a truck load of protein powder for Christmas.  He is stick thin.

Sounds like a good NIL opportunity! 🙂

[Union_Fan]

1 hour ago, techfan said:

Is there no way even with a win over Wise that Grundy can sneak into the 8 seed?

I listed the only teams eliminated above. Grundy is not one of them.

They are mathematically alive, but they'll need help in addition to beating Central.

[techfan]

On 10/27/2025 at 5:53 PM, Union_Fan said:

I listed the only teams eliminated above. Grundy is not one of them.

They are mathematically alive, but they'll need help in addition to beating Central.

Sorry about that I didn’t see the eliminated team post just that Grundy wasn’t the 8 on any of the scenarios. I don’t see them getting in but was curious