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SWVASports Survivor II - Week 6


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Alas, we have our first non-suicidal casualty of Survivor II.  Please bid a somber farewell to Ryan4VT as we send his burning carcass to Survivor Valhalla.  Whereas everyone else in our game picked one of the winning teams from Virginia, Ryan picked Pittsburgh, who could not withstand the mighty surge of the Akron Fighting Terry Bowdens.  Pittsburgh's dreams of being respected died Saturday along with him.  Thus, only six remain.  Six proud people who can say "hey, at least I wasn't last".

 

Now, we tackle Week 6.  Normally, I put the schedule close to last, but here goes:

 

Friday, October 3rd

 

Louisville @ Syracuse - 7:00 PM

 

Saturday, October 4th

 

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina - 12:30 PM

NC State @ Clemson - 3:30 PM

Wake Forest @ #1 Florida State - 3:30 PM

Miami @ Georgia Tech - 7:30 PM

Pittsburgh @ Virginia - 7:30 PM

 

And that leads us to the point in each Survivor season where we collectively say: "OH S***".  Look at that slate of games.  Do any of them make you feel comfortable?  Your options are (1) to burn two stronger teams you'd rather save until last [Florida State, Louisville] or (2) to take HUGE gambles.  Since everyone remaining except cityofRaven has picked Virginia, does anyone feel comfortable taking Pittsburgh when Pittsburgh's played like poo the last two weeks and Virginia's looking semi-respectable.  Does anyone feel comfortable taking Virginia Tech or No Classes, when No Classes can't stop anyone and Virginia Tech can't score on anyone?  Does anyone feel comfortable taking Clemson when NC State gave FSU that game last week?  Does anyone feel comfortable taking either Miami or Georgia Tech, when both teams are very Jekyll and Hyde?

 

This moral confusion is also objective.  Let's take a gander at ESPN's Power Football Index Rankings:

 

5 - Florida State

16 - Clemson

38 - Virginia Tech

39 - Virginia

40 - Miami 

41 - Louisville

44 - Duke

45 - Pittsburgh

47 - NC State

52 - Georgia Tech

54 - No Classes

65 - Syracuse

69 - Boston College

107 - Wake Forest

 

You have 1 superior team, 1 excellent team, 1 horrible team, 2 mediocre teams, and 9 teams in a big slurry somewhere between good and average.  It's amazing to me that the ACC has 9 teams within 17 slots of one another.  It makes this challenge so unpredictable and so impossible to achieve.  

 

Two fascinating notes.  One, only two teams are undefeated against the spread this year: GA Southern and Virginia.  Two, the teams picked 6th and 7th in the Coastal by the media, Pittsburgh and Virginia, have currently the highest odds of anyone in the Coastal to win the ACC Championship out of 10,000 ESPN simulations.  Pittsburgh is at 4.0%.  Virginia is at 2.6%.

 

Current picks can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WsgX4HispOcANdxapb8-8eJsS8Y5fXHLKGmyMnogCvk/edit?usp=sharing

 

UVAObserver's Pick for Week 6

Louisville

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