Bluefield Beavers/WV playoffs?

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,718]

Below are the current WV AA rankings.  Bluefield sets at 16, doesn't play this weekend as their regular season is over.  Bluefield Researcher would know better, but I think (keywords- I think) Bluefield needs 2 of 3 games to brake their way to make the playoffs.

Logan Losing- plays Herbert Hoover, and Hoover is favored by 3 touchdowns by Calpreps.  The question I am not sure about it whether a Logan loss will drop them below Bluefield.  I think it will, but not certain.

Point Pleasant Losing- Winfield is favored 34-8 over Point Pleasant

Keyser losing to Frankfort- Frankfort is favored 28-26 over Keyser

If all 3 teams above lose, I look for Bluefield to be the 15 seed.  If 2 of the 3 above lose, look for Bluefield to be the 16 seed.  One other thing,  At the top of the rankings, Roane County and Winfield are favored to win big, and if that happens, I think both might jump Independence who's regular season is over at 9 games, thus putting Indy as the 3 seed, and the 15th or 16th ranked Beavers would avoid that matchup in round 1.

1	INDEPENDENCE	11.89	9	0	0	520	31	81	26
2	ROANE COUNTY	11.78	9	0	0	372	102	75	31
3	WINFIELD	11.67	8	1	0	367	134	72	33
4	SCOTT	11.22	8	1	0	327	166	72	29
5	FRANKFORT	10.89	8	1	0	335	139	75	23
6	NORTH MARION	10.22	7	2	0	312	104	69	23
7	CLAY COUNTY	9.63	7	1	0	265	161	60	17
8	LINCOLN	9	7	2	0	319	186	63	18
9	FAIRMONT SENIOR	8.89	6	3	0	265	152	57	23
9	EAST FAIRMONT	8.89	7	2	0	295	147	66	14
11	HERBERT HOOVER	8.75	6	2	0	331	156	54	16
12	CHAPMANVILLE	7.67	6	3	0	329	222	54	15
13	NICHOLAS COUNTY	7.56	6	3	0	308	153	51	17
14	LOGAN	7.33	6	3	0	235	166	51	15
15	WEIR	7.3	7	3	0	258	174	63	10
16	BLUEFIELD	6.8	5	5	0	306	268	48	20
17	POINT PLEASANT	6.67	5	4	0	271	158	51	9
18	KEYSER	6.22	5	4	0	275	215	39	17
19	ROBERT C. BYRD	5.22	4	5	0	222	248	36	11

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,718]

Princeton is currently ranked 8th in AAA, and hosts the number one ranked team in AAA West Virginia this weekend against Parkersburg South.  Parkersburg South is good, but they are NOT the best AAA team in West Virginia, but they are first in their power ranking system.  Parkersburg South's only loss is to Bridgeport, who Princeton beat this season.  

[Pegasus 27 20]

AA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Winfield	9	1	0	42	81	42	12.300
Independence	9	0	0	29	81	21	12.222
Roane County	10	0	0	36	84	15	12.000
Scott	9	1	0	35	81	35	11.600
Frankfort	9	1	0	26	84	19	11.000
North Marion	8	2	0	29	78	29	10.700
Fairmont Sr.	7	3	0	34	66	34	10.000
Clay County	8	1	0	21	69	10	10.000
Logan	7	3	0	25	60	17	8.500
Lincoln	7	3	0	20	63	20	8.300
East Fairmont	7	3	0	15	66	15	8.100
Nicholas County	7	3	0	21	60	15	8.100
Herbert Hoover	6	3	0	18	54	18	8.000
Weir	7	3	0	11	63	7	7.400
Chapmanville Regional	6	4	0	18	54	18	7.200
Bluefield	5	5	0	21	48	21	6.900
Pt. Pleasant	5	5	0	10	51	10	6.100
Robert C. Byrd	5	5	0	14	45	14	5.900
Keyser	5	5	0	18	39	7	5.700

 

Point Pleasant - Winfield.  Keyser - Frankfort.  Logan - Herbert Hoover.  These are the 3 that matter most.  Man - Chapmanville could matter. Ridgeview - Gate City could matter. Richlands - Va High could matter.

Bluefield almost certainly needs 2 of the 3 to lose.  Logan, Point Pleasant and/or Keyser. All three are underdogs but all three could win.  The above scenario has Logan winning and the other two losing. Logan lost their QB for the season. He was by far and away their best player. Hurt them more than Bluefield losing Hariston.

[Hokiebird7 1,416]

32 minutes ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Princeton is currently ranked 8th in AAA, and hosts the number one ranked team in AAA West Virginia this weekend against Parkersburg South.  Parkersburg South is good, but they are NOT the best AAA team in West Virginia, but they are first in their power ranking system.  Parkersburg South's only loss is to Bridgeport, who Princeton beat this season.  

And Parkersburg south is led by a former Giles star

[Pegasus 27 20]

AA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Winfield	9	1	0	42	81	42	12.300
Independence	9	0	0	29	81	21	12.222
Roane County	10	0	0	36	84	15	12.000
Scott	9	1	0	35	81	35	11.600
North Marion	8	2	0	29	78	29	10.700
Fairmont Sr.	7	3	0	34	66	34	10.000
Clay County	8	1	0	21	69	10	10.000
Frankfort	8	2	0	24	75	17	9.900
Herbert Hoover	7	2	0	23	63	23	9.556
Lincoln	7	3	0	20	63	20	8.300
East Fairmont	7	3	0	15	66	15	8.100
Nicholas County	7	3	0	21	60	15	8.100
Weir	7	3	0	11	63	7	7.400
Keyser	6	4	0	24	48	13	7.200
Chapmanville Regional	6	4	0	17	54	17	7.100
Logan	6	4	0	19	51	11	7.000
Bluefield	5	5	0	21	48	21	6.900
Pt. Pleasant	5	5	0	10	51	10	6.100
Robert C. Byrd	5	5	0	14	45	14	5.900

 

This is the closest scenario. This is with Keyser winning, Logan and Point Pleasant losing. It then comes down to bonus points for Ridgeview and Richlands for Bluefield and Man for Logan. Bluefield wins the tie breaker. In WV you get 1 point for each win from a defeated opponent IF AND ONLY IF they defeat a school in their class or higher. It is harder to get bonus points in WV than VA.

[Pegasus 27 20]

AA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Independence	9	0	0	28	81	21	12.111
Roane County	10	0	0	36	84	15	12.000
Scott	9	1	0	36	81	36	11.700
Frankfort	9	1	0	26	84	19	11.000
Winfield	8	2	0	37	72	37	10.900
North Marion	8	2	0	29	78	29	10.700
Fairmont Sr.	7	3	0	34	66	34	10.000
Clay County	8	1	0	21	69	10	10.000
Herbert Hoover	7	2	0	23	63	23	9.556
Chapmanville Regional	7	3	0	24	60	17	8.400
Lincoln	7	3	0	20	63	20	8.300
East Fairmont	7	3	0	15	66	15	8.100
Nicholas County	7	3	0	21	60	15	8.100
Pt. Pleasant	6	4	0	18	60	18	7.800
Weir	7	3	0	11	63	7	7.400
Bluefield	5	5	0	21	48	21	6.900
Logan	6	4	0	18	51	11	6.900
Robert C. Byrd	5	5	0	15	45	15	6.000
Keyser	5	5	0	18	39	7	5.700

This is with Point Pleasant winning and Keyser and Logan losing. I changed the outcome of the Chapmanville - Man game which gives Logan one less point. As you can see Bluefield wins in the case of tie because Bluefield has more bonus points.

[Pegasus 27 20]

AAA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Hurricane	9	1	0	44	105	35	14.900
Martinsburg	8	2	0	40	93	39	13.300
Parkersburg South	8	2	0	34	96	34	13.000
George Washington	8	2	0	31	96	31	12.700
Huntington	8	2	0	30	96	30	12.600
Bridgeport	8	2	0	39	87	20	12.600
Princeton	7	2	0	30	81	25	12.333
Spring Valley	8	2	0	33	90	27	12.300
Musselman	7	3	0	32	84	32	11.600
Wheeling Park	7	3	0	27	81	23	10.800
Jefferson	7	3	0	22	84	22	10.600
Cabell Midland	6	3	0	22	72	22	10.444
University	7	3	0	19	81	12	10.000
Morgantown	6	4	0	25	69	18	9.400
Woodrow Wilson	6	4	0	16	69	11	8.500
Hedgesville	5	5	0	20	57	13	7.700
Oak Hill	5	5	0	13	57	7	7.000
Brooke	5	5	0	6	54	4	6.000
Buckhannon-Upshur	5	5	0	8	51	3	5.900

 

This is the most likely outcome if Princeton wins.  There are several games in WV AAA that could go either way but this is my best guess. The Huntington - Hurricane is the biggest game Friday.

[Pegasus 27 20]

AAA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Hurricane	9	1	0	43	105	34	14.800
Parkersburg South	9	1	0	39	108	39	14.700
Martinsburg	8	2	0	40	93	39	13.300
George Washington	8	2	0	31	96	31	12.700
Bridgeport	8	2	0	40	87	21	12.700
Huntington	8	2	0	30	96	30	12.600
Spring Valley	8	2	0	33	90	27	12.300
Musselman	7	3	0	32	84	32	11.600
Wheeling Park	7	3	0	27	81	23	10.800
Jefferson	7	3	0	22	84	22	10.600
Cabell Midland	6	3	0	22	72	22	10.444
Princeton	6	3	0	22	69	17	10.111
University	7	3	0	19	81	12	10.000
Morgantown	6	4	0	25	69	18	9.400
Woodrow Wilson	6	4	0	16	69	11	8.500
Hedgesville	5	5	0	20	57	13	7.700
Oak Hill	5	5	0	13	57	7	7.000
Brooke	5	5	0	6	54	4	6.000
Buckhannon-Upshur	5	5	0	8	51	3	5.900

This is how it could look if Princeton loses.

[Pegasus 27 20]

West Virginia has an awesome user generated prognosticator program where you can program the results of every game and see where the points come out.

http://wvtailgatecentral.com/hs/fb2022/prognosticator_old.php

[Pegasus 27 20]

A Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
James Monroe	10	0	0	41	69	41	11.000
Williamstown	8	1	0	39	60	39	11.000
Tucker County	10	0	0	33	66	33	9.900
Cameron	10	0	0	35	63	35	9.800
Wahama	10	0	0	30	63	30	9.300
Wheeling Central	8	1	0	20	60	20	8.889
Van	10	0	0	25	63	25	8.800
Greenbrier West	9	1	0	28	57	28	8.500
St. Marys	8	2	0	33	48	33	8.100
East Hardy	8	2	0	30	48	30	7.800
Doddridge County	8	2	0	28	48	28	7.600
Man	7	3	0	18	54	18	7.200
Montcalm	9	1	0	14	54	14	6.800
South Harrison	6	4	0	20	45	20	6.500
Petersburg	7	3	0	12	51	12	6.300
Clay-Battelle	7	2	0	14	42	14	6.222
Tug Valley	6	4	0	11	45	11	5.600
Tyler Consolidated	5	4	0	18	30	18	5.333
Midland Trail	6	4	0	13	39	13	5.200
Wirt County	6	4	0	13	36	13	4.900

 

this is the projection for WV single A if James Monroe and Montcalm win.

[Pegasus 27 20]

A Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
James Monroe	10	0	0	41	69	41	11.000
Williamstown	8	1	0	39	60	39	11.000
Tucker County	10	0	0	33	66	33	9.900
Cameron	10	0	0	35	63	35	9.800
Wahama	10	0	0	31	63	31	9.400
Wheeling Central	8	1	0	20	60	20	8.889
Van	10	0	0	25	63	25	8.800
Greenbrier West	9	1	0	29	57	29	8.600
St. Marys	8	2	0	33	48	33	8.100
East Hardy	8	2	0	30	48	30	7.800
Doddridge County	8	2	0	28	48	28	7.600
Man	7	3	0	18	54	18	7.200
South Harrison	6	4	0	20	45	20	6.500
Clay-Battelle	7	2	0	15	42	15	6.333
Petersburg	7	3	0	12	51	12	6.300
Montcalm	8	2	0	11	48	11	5.900
Tug Valley	6	4	0	11	45	11	5.600
Tyler Consolidated	5	4	0	18	30	18	5.333
Midland Trail	6	4	0	13	39	13	5.200

 

Montcalm has reasonable chance to get in even if they lose.

[BBHoops_18 206]

I think Bluefield can win their first round matchup if they can avoid getting Independence.

[BBHoops_18 206]

1 hour ago, Pegasus 27 said:

AAA Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	BonusPts	BasePts	TBB	Proj. Final Rating
Hurricane	9	1	0	43	105	34	14.800
Parkersburg South	9	1	0	39	108	39	14.700
Martinsburg	8	2	0	40	93	39	13.300
George Washington	8	2	0	31	96	31	12.700
Bridgeport	8	2	0	40	87	21	12.700
Huntington	8	2	0	30	96	30	12.600
Spring Valley	8	2	0	33	90	27	12.300
Musselman	7	3	0	32	84	32	11.600
Wheeling Park	7	3	0	27	81	23	10.800
Jefferson	7	3	0	22	84	22	10.600
Cabell Midland	6	3	0	22	72	22	10.444
Princeton	6	3	0	22	69	17	10.111
University	7	3	0	19	81	12	10.000
Morgantown	6	4	0	25	69	18	9.400
Woodrow Wilson	6	4	0	16	69	11	8.500
Hedgesville	5	5	0	20	57	13	7.700
Oak Hill	5	5	0	13	57	7	7.000
Brooke	5	5	0	6	54	4	6.000
Buckhannon-Upshur	5	5	0	8	51	3	5.900

This is how it could look if Princeton loses.

If this were to happen Martinsburg would beat Oak Hill so bad. Could hang 70 on them. 

[Pegasus 27 20]

7 minutes ago, BBHoops_18 said:

If this were to happen Martinsburg would beat Oak Hill so bad. Could hang 70 on them. 

Martinsburg would not play Oak Hill. They would play Morgantown. Oak Hill would be 17th. I just put 17th thru 19th in as context.

[BBHoops_18 206]

Bluefield’s chances are pretty good right? Winfield certainly beats Point Pleasant. Frankfort is favored over Keyser. I see some people on tailgate central are picking Keyser. Even if they win Hoover should beat Logan. 

[Pegasus 27 20]

Odds are in their favor but it is no slam dunk. A win by Richlands and Ridgeview would help. A win by Man over Chapmanville helps too. Not because it would eliminate Chapmanville but because it would take a point from Logan. I consider this game a toss up. Just like Ridgeview - Gate City and Richlands - Va High.

[Pegasus 27 20]

If Keyser wins then it depends on bonus points. Bluefield has 3 up for grabs.  Richlands, Ridgeview and Pikeview. There is almost no chance of getting one from Pikeview as they play Nicholas County. Logan's one that is up for grabs is Man - Chapmanville. If Man wins they get a point. Otherwise they don't. The ace in the hole for Bluefield is if they end up tied Bluefield wins the tiebreaker. It is also good for Bluefield that Ridgeview and Richlands have a lot on the line.

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,718]

2 hours ago, Hokiebird7 said:

And Parkersburg south is led by a former Giles star

Yep

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,718]

Frankfort is barely favored over Keyser, only 2 pts by Calpreps, so basically a tossup game. Logan and Point Pleasant are heavy underdogs. 

I think Logan and Point Pleasant lose. Keyser is the one to watch, if they lose, Bluefield is likely in. Like you all wrote, a bunch will determine it and you know far more than me, but if you see that Keyser loses this weekend, things look very, very good for the Beavers. If Keyser wins this weekend, flip a coin. Keyser is the one game (if you could boil it down to one game) to keep an eye on imo.

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,718]

Heck of a football game in Princeton, WV, this weekend with Patriots from P. South coming south. The stadium is going to be near full or full.