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Scheduling for victory...


GMan
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There has been a lot of talk over the last week or so about the scheduling non-district opponents. Some think its better to schedule the easy win, some think its better to schedule tougher opponents to prepare for the playoffs. Well, I did a little research using Graham and Grundy as my models.

 

Going back over the last three seasons...2001, 2002, and 2003...I rounded up the records and results for games in which both teams played common opponents and for games against non-common opponents.

 

In 2001, Graham and Grundy both played Richlands, Carroll Co., and Tazewell. Graham went 3-0 vs. these teams outscoring them 120-18. Grundy went 2-1 vs. these teams outscoring them 72-36. Graham's non-common opponents included Bluefield, Blacksburg, Mount View, Marion, Patrick Henry (Roanoke), and Greeneville, TN. Graham went 5-1 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 36-31. Grundy's non-common opponents included Shelby Valley, KY, Powell Valley, Twin Valley, Virginia, Abingdon, and Hurley. Grundy went 6-0 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 25-38. In 2001, Graham and Grundy played twice with Graham winning 35-34 in OT and 45-14. Graham advanced to the VA Group AA, Division 3 Championship game.

 

In 2002, Graham and Grundy both played Richlands, Carroll Co., and Tazewell. Graham went 3-0 vs. these teams outscoring them 111-47. Grundy went 2-1 vs. these teams outscoring them 62-59. Graham's non-common opponents included Bluefield, Blacksburg, Woodrow Wilson, Marion, Patrick Henry (Roanoke), and Greeneville, TN. Graham went 4-2 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 46-26. Grundy's non-common opponents included Jenkins, KY, Powell Valley, Twin Valley, Virginia, Abingdon, and Hurley. Grundy went 6-0 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 20-42. In 2002, Graham defeated Grundy during the regular season 37-14 while Grundy won 21-14 in the Region IV Finals. Grundy advanced to the VA Group AA, Division 3 State Semi-Finals.

 

In 2003, Graham and Grundy both played Richlands, Carroll Co., Tazewell, Abingdon, Marion, and Virginia. Graham went 6-0 vs. these teams outscoring them 249-97. Grundy went 4-2 vs. these teams outscoring them 138-113. Graham's non-common opponents included Bluefield, Blacksburg, and G.W.-Danville. Graham went 1-2 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 24-10. Grundy's non-common opponents included Twin Valley, Shelby Valley, KY, and Paintsville, KY. Grundy went 3-0 vs. these teams who had a combined record of 10-22. In 2003, Graham defeated Grundy twice by the scores of 42-7 and 32-7. Graham advanced to the VA Group AA, Division 3 State Semi-Finals.

 

What do these numbers prove? I have my thoughts about it but I will let you draw your own conclusions...

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tells me one thing...Grundy and Graham have been pretty dominant in Region IV..Div 3 over the past few years...with Graham obviously getting the better end of it...

 

Scheduling can be tough for both schools...Grundy played TN High etc...for a couple of years...and I don't really know what happened with them...wouldn't mind seeing them back on the schedule again...but location does play an important role in trying to get a home and home with somebody...I wish Grundy would try and schedule a bluefield...that would be very good for the program...or at least Pikeville in place of these mediocre ass Kentucky teams they are playing....

 

but until somethin is changed in the AD's office and Grundy works harder at toughening up there schedule we are going to continue to see the debacles that we saw against Richlands...

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Some interesting trends:

 

1. Graham went undefeated against all common opponents all three years while Grundy lost once every three times they played a common opponent (Grundy went 2-1 the years they shared 3 opponents, 4-2 the year they shared 6).

 

2. Graham's non-common opponents had a combined winning record all three years (+5, +20, & +14; this is number of games above/below .500%), where as Grundy's non-common opponents had a combined losing record all three years (-13, -22, & -12; this is number of games above/below .500%).

 

3. Graham and Grundy played 6 times over these three years, once each season and in the playoffs every year.

 

Anaylsis:

 

Graham went 5-1 versus Grundy over this span. I think this can be attributed to scheduling. Graham's non-common teams finished with a strong winning record each year, where as Grundy's finished with a losing record each year.

 

Its a matter of preparation. By the time Graham plays its SWD schedule, they have done fought harsh battles with Bluefield and Blacksburg (these three years of discussion).

 

From these stats, Graham seems to be scheduling teams that will test them the hardest, and quite possibly beat them (sometimes, thump them). These are teams who are projected to go deep into the playoffs, but are not in Region IV, Division 3. Therefore, Graham gets a stiff test, possibly a whooping, but something they can build off of and use to make them better.

 

Grundy schedules teams that are typically much weaker than Grundy (only Powell Valley over this span has played close with Grundy), winning all of there non-common games. Grundy saw little adversity in these contests, most of the time the starters didn't play over 2 quarters.

 

Final result: Graham won three SWD titles, lost only one game to a SWD team in 3 years (Grundy, in the playoffs), and had trips to the State Finals and Semi-Finals.

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[ QUOTE ]

Graham went 5-1 versus Grundy over this span. I think this can be attributed to scheduling. Graham's non-common teams finished with a strong winning record each year, where as Grundy's finished with a losing record each year.

 

[/ QUOTE ]

 

 

Two words: Ahmad Bradshaw

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You don't know what you're talking about, man. The '94 and '95 Chicago Bulls would have gone all the way if they hadn't played those weakass Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets so many times. grin.gif

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Here's my input into the conundrum:

Ahmad Bradshaw couldn't win games without a strong offensive line and supporting cast ahead of him (Kirk and Williams-2001; Taylor and Mullins 2002). Elder Matthews lead a strong role at quarterback (AA 1st team, 2001) with 46 (correct me if I'm wrong) touchdowns that year. You need a good receiving corps to do that, which Belcher (1/3 of his catches were touchdowns), Bradshaw, and elder Elswick did efficiently.

The 2002 Region IV final loss was in the sloppy mud and snow at Mitchell Stadium. Matthews and Bradshaw couldn't maneuver in the conditions while a powerful Grundy offensive line marched the ball down with 3 scores for the win (and younger Taylor dropping a 4th down pass in the end zone with 11 seconds to go didn't help either). Grundy was also machined by Liberty-Bedford the week after.

 

That said, we come to the issue of scheduling. G-Man went to the troubles to dig up the records to prove his points. I agree, partially. The VHSL rating system does not reward Grundy as richly as some may believe, for the scores drop with each loss. Grundy's records were nearly flawless over that period, suggesting that Grundy went with the surefire points for the playoff birth. That seems a little manipulative to me (just a personal thought). That being said, I believe Graham is as guilty for playing up. Carlock has not schedule a single-A football team (apparently: no teams the G-Men played were single-A) in quite some time. I do believe to an extent he uses the VHSL rating system slyly in order to milk every point in order for a playoff birth. It's not dirty, it's smart.

Personally, I'd pay good money to see a Graham-Gate City rematch, or a Graham-Lebanon matchup, or a Graham-Radford, Graham-Powell Valley, etc. I think it denies the fans the matchups they'd like to see when coaches schedule up like that; at least, I feel that way. However, in both instances I think it's more about the playoff births than about playing a game and pleasing the fans.

I look forward to hearing the comments against me tomorrow grin.gif.

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*you forgot to mention that "the whole team had the flu"...how could you forget that?

 

..and yes, Bradshaw WAS the difference in at least 3 of those games, without him Grundy wins...and if you think Graham could have beaten Liberty Bedford that year you are sadly mistaken. If Graham couldn't beat Grundy to get there, they were not going to beat them...and yes it was also frozen and muddy at Bedford.

 

Get over it already.

 

Bradshaw and his 6 TD nights killed Grundy and a lot of it was him making stuff happen on his own...not because his line was so awesome...he had that much talent. Why is it any other time besides when Graham fans are talking about these Grundy games you guys talk Bradshaw up like he can walk on water...then when it's convenient for your argument you talk him down and say how good the supporting cast was...without Bradshaw those Graham teams were nothing more than average at the best.

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In my sporadic posts, I've never compared Bradshaw to Jesus. I just thought I'd leave that tidbit of information out there.

Scottie Pippen couldn't win the title without Michael Jordan. Ralph Sampson couldn't win it alone at UVA (not even with Olajuwon in Houston). To say Ahmad Bradshaw won those games by himself is insanely ludicrous. The line at Graham was far larger and far more powerful than it is now. That line in 2001 with Kirk, Williams, Taylor, Fountain, and Mullins was the most powerful line I'd seen at Graham in quite sometime. I don't think it was totally unrelated that Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 2,000 yards that season. He also didn't catch all 46 touchdown passes. It's lunacy to credit him with all the offense.

That doesn't even touch defense. Yes, he was a talented defensive back, and that's what he originally was slated to do at UVA. That doesn't compensate for the other 10 members on the field who machined opponents until a slow, wet astroturf stopped them in Lynchburg. The wet conditions disrupted the passing game, not as much the running game.

The field in Bedford in 2003 was rock solid from a week of sub-freezing DRY weather. Mud freezes very quickly when exposed to that kind of weather, and I don't want to get into the physics of it at 12:45 AM. Ergo, the field was hard and fast. Also, Graham beat then 37-14 earlier that season. Grundy did not get THAT good THAT fast; that was apparent in the Liberty-Bedford game. It was more the elements then, which Grundy was better suited for and ultimately won; I give Grundy all the credit in the world for that.

 

Cliff's notes:

Ahmad Bradshaw does not count for 11 people. Team efforts won those games.

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I agree with Lance that Bradshaw made the difference more often than not. Graham had a good team while he was there but several of their wins were by 1-2 TD's. If you remove Bradshaw from those games and replace him with an average, or even an above average back Graham probably loses some of those games.

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You make a vaild point, but if I'm not mistaken, it can only be taken on the 35-34 overtime win in 2001. The other games were no closer than 37-14 win in last year's Region IV finals. That game, he most likely did make the difference. Still, Graham would've went 4-2 without Bradshaw (granted he was responsible for two touchdowns himself), which proves two points: that he was not the entire offensive makeup of that team, and that Graham would've won 4 games without him.

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First i never said he did it alone, i said you take him away grundy does no worse than 3-3, counting last years playoff game that was 7-7 at the half and the overtime loss where Grundy went for two...thats 3-3.

 

and please stop whining about the field conditions...good god it's been almost two years already. Or at least break out some cheese for the rest of us. Grundy played on the same field as Graham and they won...with Bradshaw playing.

 

I was not talking "directly" to you saying you in particular change your arguments concerning him...but it does happen...he's either the born savior of Graham who has his very own "day" or at least did have...or he's just another member of the team? Which one is it?

 

A kid like him only comes along every so often...you watch Graham play this year running the same plays they ran with him in there and it's night and day...he can not "just" be replaced...he was something special. Henry is good, but could not put up those kind of numbers if AB wasn't there.

 

And no if Graham couldn't beat Grundy they would not have beaten Bedford...I don't care what you say...those guys looked like a college team in that game...Grundy couldn't do anything with them and they went on to win state very easily. Graham didn't win state either of the other two years we are talking about either so stop this non-sense about how great they are/were...what about those other two years you did beat Grundy to advance, what's the "excuse" there? Turf Toe? whole team had meningitis? They have a problem adjusting to the difference in altitude from wherever they were playing compared to Mitchell Stadium? Come on I know you have some...lay them on me!

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Some things I'd like to point out...

 

#1...Bradshaw may have been the difference in the three years used as examples. HOWEVER, how do you explain the 27-7 series edge Graham has over Grundy since 1973.

 

#2...I "dug up" these numbers not to prove "my point", I posted them so everyone can draw there own conclusions. Its been proven that the two teams can make the playoffs and advance by scheduling either way.

 

#3...True, Carlock has never scheduled a VA Class A team in all the years he has been at Graham. But, in recent years with the drop in enrollments, BLUEFIELD is considered a CLASS A team under the VHSL ratings system.

 

Just a few more things for you folks to ponder...

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I don't know about the other 27 times, but I know during the 6 games in question...without a doubt, he WAS the difference in the ballgame. I went to every one of them, have all of them on tape, it is a fact he tore us up...and most of his TD's we get hands on him or almost have him tackled and he somehow manages to break free...Graham had a "good" offensive line...not a great one...Graham consistantly puts a good - above avg. defense on the field year in and year out. You guys always seem to have at least 1 or 2 fast RB's to get the job done as well on offense.

 

Bradshaw was great...you guys were lucky to have him...and yes he was the difference in those games.

 

This year may be different? Or, someone else might step up and score 6 td's for Graham...at which point, I'll say...hey that kid was the difference in this game...if Aaron Looney scores 6 for Grundy and they win 42 - 7 I'll say...hey Looney was the difference in the game...if it happens, right now Grundy has only an avg. line...I'm not about to say they are a powerhouse when they are not. Can't compare any of these kids to Bradshaw though at this point, the numbers and the films speak for themselves.

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First, I mentioned Grundy was the team better suited for that night, therefore Grundy won the game.

Second, the field was better suited for Grundy. I honestly could give a hoot about who won the game-it's about the students progressing themselves as individuals, and doing the best they can for themselves, the school, and the loyal fans. I cheer for Graham because it's my hometown; Grundy won the game because they were better suited for it.

Third, yes, Graham would've lost handily to Liberty-Bedford. I never mentioned that. Grundy got machined, and so did every other team that played (a la Gretna last year).

Fourth, Ahmad Bradshaw is not Jesus incarnate. I cannot stress this point enough. He was a playmaker, and a one-of-a-kind one at that. Graham fielded a spectacular offensive line in 2001, and that cannpot be disputed. It's ridiculous to believe that in 2001 he was the sole reason Graham beat Liberty-Bedford 56-14 in the state semi-finals, and beat Bluefield 56-8, and rolled over Laurel Park 49-14, etc. He made the difference in 2002 moreso than 2001, and 2003 moreso than that. He was not the ultimate deciding factor in those contests, though: football is a team sport. That's what separates it from fencing, bass fishing, and other similar sports.

 

Also, this is the reason they play the games. Who cares if Bradshaw was there; Graham won, and won handily, and Grundy will have its chance October 8th.

May God bless.

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People seem to forget that Bradshaw was the third or fourth option during the 2001 season behind Paco Jones, Reed Oaks, and HT Matthews. Bradshaw was a huge reason for Graham's success last year, but in 2001 he was a part of a machine and in 2002 HT Matthews was also equally as important as Bradshaw was...

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one last time and i will type slowly for you this time --- we are talking about the 6 games between grundy and graham and AB being the difference in those particular games.

 

 

eh...i already said what i wanted to...u guys keep talking about it.

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I'm not trying to flame here, but the only reason Grundy beat Graham in 02 was because over half our offensive line was out with injuries that game. Granted you guys wanted it more than the sorry bunch we put on the field that night, but without the injuries to the line, that game is a no contest.

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First it was the weather, the field conditions, the flu, now half of the O-line was out with injuries. I'm not trying to flame here either but this is the first time that I have ever heard this one.

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Lance, my friend if you have the tapes from the last three years as you claim notice the 2002 films. Notice how the entire left side of the line from 1st game is different. I don't need to claim to have the films, I actually do have them. Put up or shut up. But hey, it isn't just Grundy. To be honest we were never the same after Todd Goodson went down at Carroll Co with the shoulder. It was just a matter of time until someone embarassed us. Grundy just happened to be the ones who got us. Didn't help you at all the next week did it? And by the way, I do think Grundy will win the region this year, go to Gretna and get utterly embarassed. Lets see if I am right..........

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