Beamerball

Article in Lebanon's paper says Region D's will be like last year. Top 4 seeds host, semis would be at Castlewood and Lebanon, and the finals at Virginia High.

From the Kingsport-Times... "The VHSL Division Playoff Study Group appears to have backed away from a proposal to divide Virginia’s schools into five classifications. In a meeting in Charlottesville last Friday, the committee voted 12-0 to recommend suspending further consideration of the most recent five- and six-division proposals. While an assortment of concerns were cited, the deal-breaker seems to be recognition that, according to a VHSL press release, “it will be important not to reduce the number of state-level football and basketball games since these are crucial for sustaining the operations and programs of the league.” "

No anti-global warming arguments or any that bash Gore over it should ever start off like this. No matter how bad Gore is, this isn't any better. Its too easily countered. They can even use these to support their extreme weather pattern portion. Don't make it easier for them. By the way, he must not be in Florida either, haha...record lows being set down there.

Most of this was from the clipper system. The lake enhanced snows and the upslope just started this morning. The lakes haven't really gotten much involved with this, the upslope hasn't been much yet for some either, and as a result some of the snows haven't been as good today. Amounts did vary, as they said it would, that's just the nature of it. But all in all a decent one, at least from a northwest flow event that is. The snowfall rates in some of the bands were impressive though. Conditions were pretty bad at times. It certainly wasn't what could have been, but nonetheless, not a bad little shot from this type of system.

Still coming down here. Roads are in very bad shape. A good number of wrecks reported, traffic backed up a good distance in some places. VDOT having trouble getting through to clear roads because of the number of vehicles that have wrecked and blocking the roads.

J.I. Burton has only won 3 games. George Mason 5. Lebanon girls have only won 3 games this season and none in the district. Chesterfield Community doesn't have a girls basketball team.

Its the warning issued by the NWS that they have up on there. The lake enhanced snows will kick up especially later tonight. These are driven by the daytime heating. We are under a heavy snow squall now. Roads turned completely white in about 2-3 minutes..very heavy snow, white out conditions.

There's a little disturbance diving down into the area and beginning to interact with the mountains. Believe things are really supposed to pick up tonight after the front kicks through and northwest winds pick up. Some of the heavier showers/bands you get under can put down some pretty heavy bursts quickly. (3 inches in 2 hours from one in Indianapolis this morning). Snow ratios should be high due to the cold temps and they're indicating there's a lot of lift with this and some instability over the region.

Winter storm watches up for Lee, Wise, Scott, Washington, and Russell Counties from Tuesday afternoon through late Wed. night. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ008&warncounty=VAC191&firewxzone=VAZ600&local_place1=Abingdon+VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Winter storm warnings up, including Tazewell, Smyth, and Mercer counties from Tuesday afternoon until Thursday morning. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ007&warncounty=VAC185&firewxzone=VAZ007&local_place1=North+Tazewell+VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Charleston NWS ahead of everyone else as usual I see ;)

Back edge of the snow is moving through Lee County now, we have around an inch here. Depending on how much is left tomorrow, we'll probably add to the totals as a couple of little disturbances (and any upslope snow) may drop down Tuesday and Wednesday and give the area some accumulating snows. Still could end up with a decent snowfall event after all for some. The low is moving well off to the east. That threat for the major snowstorm lasted about one day, the rest was just watching to see if the models would go back to it, and they didn't. Again, maybe it'll still surprise us, or maybe still wishful thinking, haha ;) Amazing how consistent they were and then the shift so far east. I hope they look into it, I'd like to see what happened (the accuweather guy's claim may have been bogus, but then again?).

Some of the models can be seen here... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Usually I just view the medium..the "850mb temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn" is the most commonly view and easier to see for most. (The 0c line is typically the rain/snow indicator, its more complicated than that, but that's an easier way to look at it). You can see the newest under the 00 UTC runs. Anyway, and remember this is just the most recent runs..may change again with the next ones, some of the latest are beginning to bring the front dropping down from Canada in slower. This would help get this developing and give us a batter shot a seeing this storm. Would like to see the area across Miss. to hold and the front allow it move up into the area, then hopefully things begin to wrap up along the VA/NC coast. The NGM model is the slowest with the front now and actually is now back to bringing the storm up along the Appalachians again. This puts us back in the snowstorm..but it might be just a bit too close for comfort (rain/mix threat). Should be interesting to see if the following runs continue this trend, if they do, then its back to being a likely storm threat.

Haha, love it. A westward shift (as some of us expected) with some of the models tonight on the 0z runs. GFS, NAM, and especially the NGM..that I've seen.

They've been consistently right the past few days...more times than not they are. People just remember a miss more than a do a correct, sunny day. The bigger systems are the more difficult, but they're also more rare. Of course not everyone has a job that's ever changing like the weather and has so much involved either.

Hmm.. http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2009/01/theory_on_why_models_made_big_shift_in_storm.asp The front is looking to push too far to the coast. It still may not be that far east, but its getting awfully late now for the usual westerward trend. As one said though, the south's biggest snow usually are the unexpected ones...and now that everyone is jumping off this one, that probably raises the chances, lol.

Just as it was early with the hype, it might be just a bit early for the people jumping off the bandwagon, although now most of the models are in agreement with this shift..and the closer you get, well... This thing has not been totally discounted by everyone just yet though. Almost always you will see the models shift west a day or so before its hits..and often will still be too far east. Still might not shift enough, but we'll see. This may be one of those times they don't do that though, knowing our luck. Of course, it could also be one of those that catches people off guard again (after the early letdown), like has happened. There's still a few who don't think this will go out to sea or be that far east. We'll see what tomorrow's trend brings now I guess. Then again, it could be even farther to the east, lol. Don't get excited days out on these things, just be aware of the potential. This thing hasn't even begun to take shape yet for that matter, harder to get a handle on in that case too. Gman, what's the earliest you usually can tell?

Today's models runs have taken it out farther east and off the coast, but, not surprisingly there's at least one trend back....the 18z NAM just brought it up west. Often they'll trend back westward as we get closer, so being well off to the east isn't necessarily a bad thing right now. Its funny watching how many were on it yesterday, are now jumping back off...too much relying on that. As Gman pointed out, they've not ruled it out yet, just even more uncertain now. Wouldn't be surprised for this to come back farther west as it often does. But, either way, Gman is right on it. Up the east side..boom. Out to sea..ah, not so much, lol. Hope the two meet up right and can phase with each other.

Taken as most of the models are showing now, this would one of the big ones like we haven't seen in some time. Some trying to compare the projected strength of the storm to the '93 Blizzard. It still showing up as an eastern slope tracking storm and staying fairly well to the south, which is good. The NWS in Morristown mentions the possibility for it to start as rain or a mix, but they also remind that if it pulls to the east and bombs out near us then even with a light mix to start, when the heavier precip begins you can get the dynamic cooling process, if its strong enough, and the rapid changeover. That's a process we've seen in the past big snows too...'98 a key example. Also looks like winds will be strong...if it intensifies near us and with the winds, we could be in that blizzard area. I think its quite early for they hype too, but the models have really been consistent so far, and the longer it shows up, its harder to ignore the chances, haha. I know people over in KY are worried because they've still not recovered over there and still have plenty of ice and snow left. Things look really good for now and the pattern is changing, usually a big storm will accompany that. We are due also. Who knows?

Well if they did go through with it (the 5 division model that is), and assuming that they choose the 450-800 or so set for Div.2 (which I don't they're set on the breakdown yet either) and assuming Grundy falls in that range as now...then they would go into Div. 2. Each of the 5 divisions are to be divided into four sections (kind of like regions are now). So they would into this area's section. Using the presentation, that would be "section A"...and in the western super section (two super sections, east and west for each division). Based on current figures (although they're also not sure what set of numbers they'll be using), Div. 2 would look something like this.. Div. 2 (451-800) Eastern Super Section Section D Greensville Co. Nottoway Bluestone Brunswick Warhill Bruton Arcadia Nandua Northampton Essex Lancaster Northumberland Washington & Lee King William Matthews Windsor Park View (SH) Section C Goochland Thomas Jefferson Maggie Walker Warren County Wilson Memorial Clarke Co. Madison Co. Manassas Park George Mason Strasburg Buffalo Gap Central (W) East Rockingham (2010)* Jackson Stonewall-Q Luray Page County Nelson Co. Western Super Section Section B Central (Lunenburg) Amelia County Fort Defiance Stuarts Draft Riverheads Cumberland Randolph-Henry Buckingham Co. Appomattox Chatham Dan River Gretna James River Floyd Co. Glenvar Section A Martinsville Giles Radford Fort Chiswell Grayson Co. Patrick Henry (GS) Graham Grundy Richlands Tazewell John Battle Gate City Lebanon Virginia J.J. Kelly Powell Valley Of course, that could all change too (that's the way the presentation had things broken down for now). And some have drifted back and forth, like Lee, so they could end up in Div. 3 or Div. 2, depending on how things work out. They've said in the forums that may freeze the current districts for a couple of years or so while going to this format. Look at it like football and basketball with teams within different divisions within the district, and come postseason time they enter their division for the playoffs. The sections can decide how teams will advance into postseason play. So it could be like the current process. The "overall record" and others were just examples given. But it does look like they want to eventually get away from district play. Once regular season is up, the teams go on to the Sectional playoffs..the Sectional champs move on to the two Super Sectionals (ex. winner of section D would play the winner of section C and Section B champ would play the Section A champ), the winners there would play for the state title. Hope I explained all that correctly. Again, some of it could change..still have another vote, some more discussion, and the a "final" vote. They've also mentioned other models for discussion (like 6 division).

As posted on the other page....there's a question and answer type forum summary on here... http://www.vhsl.org/MoreAboutVHSL/RR.htm

Looks like they'll have the final vote on it in May. That would probably be a section (one of four across the state). From what I've read most are wanting to keep the current districts in place and they've said they're considering freezing them maybe for a cycle. There's a power point presentation and a summary of the meetings they've held, here... http://www.vhsl.org/MoreAboutVHSL/RR.htm

I believe these are a little more current... http://www.vhsl.org/MoreAboutVHSL/0911adoptedplan.doc

Yeah, every one of them showed up. Wasn't much of anything there on the mods forum that hadn't been said on the actual forum though, lol. Don't know why people were surprised there was one anyway? The topics were in reverse order too, but there was a display option at the top that sort of fixed that a bit. Try logging in as imported_[your usernamen here]. You can go over the help desk and they should be able to fix it and get the imported part off.

So they would just point the gun at him???

http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/191909

This was posted a couple or so years back I think, but here's an outdoor forum for Southwest Virginia and the area for anyone interested... http://hunter316.proboards45.com/index.cgi