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BC @ VT


Ryan4VT
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You all know I love stats as much as anybody around. Let's break this down, national rank style, thanks to http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2007&div=4&site=org

 

Boston College:

Total offense-16th

Rushing offense-72nd

Passing offense-8th

Total defense-29th

Rushing defense-1st (no, not a misprint...just 46.4 yards per game)

Passing defense-105th

 

Virginia Tech:

Total offense-112th

Rushing offense-90th

Passing offense-101st

Total defense-13th

Rushing defense-17th

Passing defense-40th

 

I think that it's fairly silly to say that Boston College has played no one, when the Virginia Tech schedule has a few cupcakes of its own. Let's be honest, Boston College's schedule isn't awful. In fact, it's minutely BETTER than Virginia Tech's: Wake Forest (5-2), North Carolina State (2-5), Georgia Tech (5-3), Army (3-5), Massachusetts (6-1 I-AA), Bowling Green (4-3), Notre Dame (1-7). That's not awful, considering that 5 of 7 opponents have 3 or more wins. Let's see Virginia Tech's schedule: East Carolina (4-4), LSU (7-1), Ohio (3-5), William and Mary (4-3 I-AA), UNC (2-5), Clemson (5-2), Duke (1-6). The total opponents' records are: Boston College (26-26), Virginia Tech (25-26). Let's not have the pot call the kettle black, now...

For Virgnia Tech's offense to succeed in this game, they must beat Boston College through the air. Boston College's run defense is the best in the nation, and with a recuperating offense line at Virginia Tech, Stinespring would be well advised to predominantly stay away from the run, or at the very most, use a short passing game to perhaps establish the run. This game rests on Sean Glennon's shoulders, if Tyrod Taylor is out. They need every bit of his experience in this one. I like Boston College in this matchup (90th rush offense against 1st rush defense, 101st passing offense against 105th pass defense).

Now, let's look at Boston College's offense against Virginia Tech's defense. Boston College's strength is through the air, obviously, with Heisman candidate Matt Ryan. They will have to succeed through the air in my opinion, for Virginia Tech's rush defense will likely take Andre Callender out of this one. I give Boston College a slight edge here, due to Ryan's efficiency in the passing game (72nd rush offense against 13th rush defense, 8th passing offense against 40th pass defense).

However, we all know this is a Thursday night game in Lane Stadium, and this raucous environment rattles most every team. Boston College also won last year, and that'll be fresh in the minds of the Hokies. However, I just think Boston College has just enough to win it. I really do. The Eagles are still playing for a national title birth, but I HIGHLY doubt they're overlooking this game, especially with two weeks to prepare. I predict a Boston College win, 17-14, on a last second field goal by Steve Aponavicius.

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No Taylor = no chance for Tech.

 

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i have more faith in glennon. I believe he is a man possessed. Tyrod is an excellent athlete and will have his time, but glennon is the better, ESPECIALLY with an offensive line. Give him time to throw, and he will find the open reciever.

 

Tyrod is completing 52% of his passes and in six games has only 3 passing TDs.

 

Glennon on the other hand has a 135 passing rating, competing over 63% of his passes and played brillantly against duke when the offense was stagnant with taylor.

 

IM for glennon. Tech fans threw him under the bus too fast, and he deserves a shot and I hope he gets it...

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I totally agree that Tech fans were far too quick to turn on Glennon for the numbers you just described. However, Taylor hasn't done that badly in relief. Here's a comparison of their stats:

Tyrod Taylor, 53-102, 640 yards, 52.0 completion %, 3 TD, 1 INT, 112.4 rating

Sean Glennon, 48-76, 583 yards, 63.2 completion %, 3 TD, 2 INT, 135.4 rating

 

Save the completion percentage, those stats are very close. Taylor hasn't been statistically as bad as some imply. Also, the offensive line has been the problem as of late. True, Wang's coming back. With a fishy offensive line, however, you need a quarterback who is fleet of foot in order to stave off sacks. Taylor is 2nd on this team in rushing yards, just 122 behind Ore (248 yards, 3 TD). Sean Glennon has -23 yards rushing on the season, sacks included, of course. When you do your homework, you see that Taylor isn't far off Glennon in the passing game, and compensates very well in the running game.

I think it was the wrong decision to activate Taylor, and that Glennon was indeed thrown under the bus too quickly. Virginia very nearly did the same with Sewell, so I know a thing or two about that. I'm just saying, with the offensive line still questionable, and since Taylor's seen a large amount of playing time as it is, he should probably see most of the playing time. It's a shame that the situation was mismanaged as it was, but that's the result now.

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Glennon has much better numbers, I'm glad someone else has done their homework on this!!!

 

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All you need to know about Glennon is to remember back to the first four Tech possessions in Baton Rouge.

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Taylor does have very comparable numbers but lets not forget the defense we are facing... who only allows 47 yards a game on the ground. The offense jus tseems stagnant with tyrod in the red zone, maybe because they often become one dimensional. Im getting sick of deeing judd dunleavy as well. Glennon knows how to win, give him the ball thursday night...

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Glennon has much better numbers, I'm glad someone else has done their homework on this!!!

 

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All you need to know about Glennon is to remember back to the first four Tech possessions in Baton Rouge.

 

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Yep...or just look back at last year's game against Boston College...also, not one of Glennon's "best games"...

 

I hope VT fans aren't fooled by how he did against Duke...I mean, c'mon, it was DUKE. That's kinda like saying you put up 50 on PikeView...

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i never thought glennon was a horrible QB, just thought he needed time to throw. Tyrod couldnt do anyhing against Duke, and it was DUKE. Tyrod hasnt done anything all year against less than mediocre copetition. He cant throw, and has happy feet. Im sick of watching him dance.

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You definitely make a good point. Boston College has the first-ranked rush defense in the whole NCAA at the moment, so Taylor's speed likely would be neutralized. However, from what I've read/heard, he'll be out nursing that injury, so Glennon would get the start anyway in that situation. The key will rest on Glennon. If he can establish a passing game against that 105th-ranked pass defense of Boston College, then the Hokies will most likely pull out a huge upset win Thursday night. If not, Boston College has the offense to battle with Virginia Tech's defense.

Do I think Glannon will come through? No, because Boston College will key in on the passing game and will not stack the box often. Also, Virginia Tech has the 101st-ranked pass attack in the country, so their weakness is Boston College's weakness as well. Statistically, Boston College is superior in rush defense and total offense; I just don't see it. Who knows, though? There appeared to be very little rust on Glannon against Duke. If he can parlay that into a good performance Thursday, Virginia Tech could win.

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That's a great sign for him, especially with the game three days away. However, he might walk without a limp, but the true question is, how would he do scrambling away from a Boston College defensive end? Would he still have the quickness, the extra step, to elude the defender? Could he shake off a linebacker's tackle if necessary? If the injury is to his plant leg, how comfortable would he be planting it to throw anywhere from 25 to 40 times? Would he be able to take a hit on it? If the conditions are rainy, will the leg be in any jeopardy on a rain-slicked or slightly muddy field?

I'm glad he's recuperated as well as he has, and I wish him the best. I would still be wary of how he'll hold up under game conditions, and not only that, the conditions of a Thursday night in Blacksburg.

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Tech wins by 17 hate to say it but they are the best team in on of the weaker leagues this year.

 

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Man I hope you're right. I'm interested to see just how good Matt Ryan is though. As far as tyrod, I would say that most of what he's been through in the past couple of days has been mostly precautionary. He didn't need to finish the duke game, so he didn't. He didn't need to be walking around on that ankle, so they put him on crutches and in a boot.

 

The one thing tyrod needs to do though is hit his receivers on thursday. He's had a tendency to over throw them or miss them completely. Can't afford to do that against the No. 2 team in the nation (which is a joke in and of itself...).

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Sorry, I don't see that happening at all. This game will probably be tighter than my pants after a good Chinese buffet. Let's pull out two more stats that show why this game will not have a 17-point margin of victory either way: scoring defense and scoring offense. For scoring defense, Virginia Tech is 8th in the nation, averaging 16.0 points per game. Boston College is not far behind in 18th, allowing just 17.7 points per game. For scoring offense, Boston College is 29th in the nation, averaging 34.57 points per game. Virginia Tech is 55th, averaging 28.14 points per game.

For hoots, let's see what Vegas thinks about a 17-point victory. http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/virginia-tech/team-page/ is the place to turn to for this. Virginia Tech has had 6 bettable games. For three, they have failed to cover the line. For this game, Vegas lists Virginia Tech at -3. Yes, Virginia Tech is favored, with the 2.5 point margin customarily awarded to the home team. On a neutral field, Vegas thinks Virginia Tech is a mere .5 point favorite over Boston College. A virtual toss-up. They run an industry off sports gaming, so I think they have a slight idea about setting the line for these games. In essence: 17-point victory? HIGHLY unlikely.

Seriously, given the multiple analyses of this game listed earlier in this post and thread, there is nothing at all to suggest a 17-point victory for either team! Heck, 17 points might be enough to win it. There are two realistic scenarios in which there could be a 17-point Hokie victory. One, if Matt Ryan goes out early. Second, if Boston College commits three or more turnovers. Even then, the margin of victory will probably be closer than that.

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i can not see either team beating another by over 17, and i think the team that gets to 24 will win. Not much offense in this one...

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Tyrod couldnt do anyhing against Duke, and it was DUKE.

 

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Uhh..he was 5 of 7 for 88 yards and a TD before he got hurt.

 

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and how many TDs did tech put up before he got hurt? only one. twice they were stopped in the red zone with Tyrod in the game. I have said it before, tech is stagnant in the red zone with tyrod.

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and how many TDs did tech put up before he got hurt? only one. twice they were stopped in the red zone with Tyrod in the game. I have said it before, tech is stagnant in the red zone with tyrod.

 

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That isn't Taylor's fault...that's STINESPRING'S fault...he gets in the red zone and goes brain dead with the play calling...

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