GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 snow will happen but nothing major. The reincarnation of Stan Sweet, ladies and gentlemen... If we end up with a boatload of snow, you're fired!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bullseye back to central WV again per the 12z euro. Still looks like several inches being highlighted across the higher elevations and northern most areas of SWVA. Again though, I know some snow lovers are hopeful for a big snow but we do not need anything even decent this time of the year. A heavy wet snow would create a lot if problems with tree damage and power outages. So any trends favoring little snow still yet is a good thing. Not sure what its like where you are, but there are very few leaves left on the trees here in the Bluefield area...most came down with the heavy rain and high wind two weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still a good bit on ours here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 This... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) After the overnight/early morning runs, models coming closer together and focus landfall around the Jersey shore still. Looks as far as snow the eastern WV mountains still looking like a target for a crippling snowstorm. Still see some models trying to bring some heavier snows into this region or nearby. I think the highest elevations stand at least a decent chance of seeing some decent amounts anyway even if lowest elevations get near nothing. Just depends on how close it tracks with that main shield and/or how much moisture it can sling around on the backside. Remember, this thing is expect to crank up and evolve into a nor'easter type storm. It will affect many well away from the center track, its a big storm. The farther south the track the better the precip/wind threats to this region. Even if the main shields stay mostly to the north, it can enhance the northwesterly flow quite a bit and that's the key. Just a couple of the latest model runs... 06z NAM run (move cursor over area to view totals) http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=RLX 06z GFS http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=RLX This is not to go running around saying you see something that said you are going to get 20 inches or whatever. So many things can change, these runs will do that too. Just something to be aware of. Don't look at specific location amount placement either (like going, "Oh, it says 15 inches for my house), especially at this point, think more of it as general area and take into account the higher and lower terrain of the area. IMO, its a little too close for comfort to not at least be a little aware of. Nothing to panic over, at least yet anyway, just something to pay attention to. If anything, instead joking about it or spreading rumors, how about we keep those directly in the worst paths along the east coast and such in ours thoughts and prayers. Don't forget too there's a chance for rain to go over to snow Sunday night in some areas after this front passes through. Higher elevations could see a little accumulation from this. Edited October 27, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z NAM http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=RLX 12z GFS http://grib2.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=RLX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) Check out the size of the wind field on this hurricane. Tropical storm force winds (sustained) extending well out from the center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153841.shtml?radii#contents Edited October 27, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just a couple of the latest model runs... 06z NAM run (move cursor over area to view totals) http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=RLX 06z GFS http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=RLX Sweet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2000wave 67 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 up to 15 inches for clintwood...?? we will be lucky to see 2 inches, I think this storm is being blown way out of wack.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 ....and the first to do what I said not to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2000wave 67 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 I hope I'm right tho...I'd rather not have 15 inches of snow... Weather channel, Noaa, Accuweather, etc....highest total amounts have been maybe 2 inches... Where do you get these maps Beamer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2000wave 67 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 I said what I said because I keep the roads clear for Paramont Mines during the winter...I dunno how I got talked into this job, possibly a company truck to drive. But I hate snow..its a 24 hour battle during good snows, gotta keep the roads clear for ambulances... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHS03 99 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 It is being blown out of proportion. It won't even be cold enough to accumulate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 It is being blown out of proportion. It won't even be cold enough to accumulate. Ye of little faith. The backside of this system will bring plenty of cold air in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 (edited) What I meant was don't look for what its showing for a specific location. It will likely change from run to run. Also terrain and other factors come in to play. They're not forecasts, but computer model runs. They should start coming together better in placement and such throughout tomorrow and on. Its not being blown out of proportion. If anything they're about right on or underplaying this. Generally, our local NWS offices will be conservative especially early on. Morristown NWS is calling for around an inch or so in the lower elevations and up to 4 inches or so in the higher elevations of this part of SWVA down here and some of NE TN. Charleston NWS is expecting 1-2 feet in the mountains and lesser amounts elsewhere. Blacksburg NWS much in line with the others. Those early thoughts from them will likely change some too. Warm ground temps could limit accumulations, although if it comes down hard enough then it can overcome warm ground temps. This is a big and powerful storm that's evolving into a hybrid part hurricane, part nor'easter as we speak. Forecasts up around NYC are calling for wave heights of 20 feet possibly coming into Long Island and storm surge higher than they seen during Irene. Winds from it are far reaching. Some of those eastern WV mountains that could measure in feet of heavy wet snow could see winds gusting over 70. Nothing to take lightly. Edited October 28, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHS03 99 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ye of little faith. The backside of this system will bring plenty of cold air in... If it does then I have an excuse not to go to work for a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 (edited) Winter Storm Watches up for the region. The local NWS offices are highlighting mainly a higher elevation threat. They might be right but still thinking they could be being conservative with this. These will likely be altered some again as time goes on but as for now here's the current thinking from the NWS local offices.... Morristown NWS: Winter Storm Watches for Lee, Wise, Scott, Russell, and Washington Counties in VA. Some TN and NC counties included in this too. **Totals- 1-4 inches in the lower elevations; 4-8 inches above 3000 ft. Charleston NWS: Winter Storm Watches for Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in VA; McDowell and Wyoming Counties in WV **Totals- 1-6 in the River Valleys; up to a foot or more above 2500 ft. Blacksburg NWS: Winter Storm Watches for elevations above 2500 ft for Tazewell, Smyth, Grayson, Bath, and Alleghany Counties in VA; Mercer and Monroe in WV; Ashe and Watauga in NC. **Totals- 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts on westward facing slopes above 3500 ft. Blacksburg NWS: Winter Storm Watches for Summers and Greenbrier Counties in WV **Totals- 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts on westward facing slopes above 3500 ft. Charleston NWS: Winter Storm Watches for Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas, Webster, Pocahontas, and Randolph Counties in WV. **Totals- 2-6 inches in lower elevations; 1-2 feet above 3000 ft. High wind warnings are also up from Tazewell County on eastward. Edited October 28, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 I hope I'm right tho...I'd rather not have 15 inches of snow... Weather channel, Noaa, Accuweather, etc....highest total amounts have been maybe 2 inches... Where do you get these maps Beamer? Accuweather has consistently said 4 to 8 inches.... for Bluefield area.... higher amounts in Northern WV counties....since Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ042&warncounty=WVC055&firewxzone=WVZ042&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Some friends of ours are in Florida this weekend, on the east coast. They sent us a video they took yesterday of the waves crashing up on the seawall and over-running it. The waves were HUGE for Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 (edited) Another perspective on how big this storm is, you've got tropical storm warings in Bermuda and there's a Lakeshore flood watch out for Chicago. They're expecting possibly 20' waves on Lake Erie also. Already have seen storm surge in southeastern VA of 3.5 feet. Edited October 28, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhs7695 185 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here's video from Nags Head: http://www.wavy.com/dpp/weather/hurricane/hurricane-sandy-in-the-outer-banks?ref=scroller&categoryId=20769&status=true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Getting in on some heavier rains down here in Lee County and surrounding areas. As the rains have picked up the temps have dropped a good bit and we're starting to see sleet mixing in with it in the higher elevations. Believe its getting close to it in the lowers too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneWarning 212 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 I broke down and finally bought a generator today. Even if I don't need it this time, I'm sure I will use it eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2012 Morristown NWS upgraded watches to winter storm warnings for Lee, Wise, Scott, Russell, and Washington Counties in VA, along with some in TN/NC. Still going with mainly a higher elevation event with 4-12 mainly above 3000 ft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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