Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess some have already been hearing about the upcoming brutal cold threat looming. Got some advisories/winter storm warnings (higher elevations) going up from the NWS in Morristown (should see some from Blacksburg eventually) now for the Thursday system, another snow threat Sunday/Monday. Looks quite cold Friday, but that may pale in comparison to Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. NWS and some locals going conservative with highs in the teens (and some still saying 20s) for highs. I remember yesterday the NWS in Morristown had a forecasted high of 25 for my locale for Tuesday and now down to the middle teens for highs. Most are still going with the GFS which had the highest temps and its been slowly dropping them and catching up with the extreme values the Euro and Candian models had been showing. If the Euro/CMC hold truer then we're looking at some temps we haven't seen in some 18 or so years, but that's IF those models are correct on what they're showing now. Some snow on the ground would certainly help bring those temps down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wouldn't mind the snow, but could do without the cold..... Been kind of a disappointing season thus far as far as snow goes, but its still early.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 How cold is the Euro model projecting? The Euro's done horribly thus far this winter, so I'm more inclined to trust the NWS predictions (which still show a high of 12 on Tuesday). Since I'm on an iPhone and it's freaking hard to get anything to show, what is the Euro saying for Tuesday's H/L? Around -10 for lows and 0 for high would be in the ballpark of the 18-year forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro usually is a little too aggressive on the cold. but it will be pretty damn cold. NWS has clintwood on monday with a chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Monday night cloudy at 5F for the low. Tuesday, sunny, High of 15, Tue. night with a low of 7F.......Way too cold for me. With regards to the snow, Sposed to get about 2-4, but i have a fear that the best moisture will be gone when the rain changes over to snow, so the storm may under perform. with the Sunday-monday system, still some differences in the models, but looks like an Appalachian runner, rain with some snow on the back end, might end up with the same as this one. I would like to see it come more eastward, sorta had a snow drought lately. But eh, im just an amateur, i'll leave the forecast to the pros lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro usually is a little too aggressive on the cold. but it will be pretty damn cold. NWS has clintwood on monday with a chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Monday night cloudy at 5F for the low. Tuesday, sunny, High of 15, Tue. night with a low of 7F.......Way too cold for me. With regards to the snow, Sposed to get about 2-4, but i have a fear that the best moisture will be gone when the rain changes over to snow, so the storm may under perform. with the Sunday-monday system, still some differences in the models, but looks like an Appalachian runner, rain with some snow on the back end, might end up with the same as this one. I would like to see it come more eastward, sorta had a snow drought lately. But eh, im just an amateur, i'll leave the forecast to the pros lol. That would certainly be far colder than I'd like, but definitely not the historic cold of the Euro model. I would like to see something truly frigid. Would remind me of my childhood, when below-zero temps would come at least once per winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Fox 59 predicting a low of zero and a high of 10 on tuesday....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Had some freezing rain this morning in Clintwood. Nearly did a 7-10 split in the parking lot of food city this morning. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Freezing rain over in Lee and Scott County too, wrecks everywhere around here. Caught a lot of people off guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 How cold is the Euro model projecting? The Euro's done horribly thus far this winter, so I'm more inclined to trust the NWS predictions (which still show a high of 12 on Tuesday). Since I'm on an iPhone and it's freaking hard to get anything to show, what is the Euro saying for Tuesday's H/L? Around -10 for lows and 0 for high would be in the ballpark of the 18-year forecast. Yeah, the CMD/Euro were both projecting temps to tank out -10 - -20 range. Not sure about now, they've probably come up from that. With that said, just two days ago the NWS had high temps of 25 for Tuesday, today. The Weather Channel had a high 18 yesterday, today they've a high of 12 and a low of 4 Tuesday morning. The NWS has a high 22 and a low of 5, So they keep dropping it as we closer, which is the usual way they do it. The GFS is showing temps going below zero and struggling to get above 0 for even highs now. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/index.php?model=gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Freezing rain over in Lee and Scott County too, wrecks everywhere around here. Caught a lot of people off guard. Oddly enough, some in McDowell, too. Definitely caught WVDOT off guard. Wife barely made it in to work today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, the CMD/Euro were both projecting temps to tank out -10 - -20 range. Not sure about now, they've probably come up from that. With that said, just two days ago the NWS had high temps of 25 for Tuesday, today. The Weather Channel had a high 18 yesterday, today they've a high of 12 and a low of 4 Tuesday morning. The NWS has a high 22 and a low of 5, So they keep dropping it as we closer, which is the usual way they do it. The GFS is showing temps going below zero and struggling to get above 0 for even highs now. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/index.php?model=gfs Will be interesting to see what does happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, the CMD/Euro were both projecting temps to tank out -10 - -20 range. Not sure about now, they've probably come up from that. With that said, just two days ago the NWS had high temps of 25 for Tuesday, today. The Weather Channel had a high 18 yesterday, today they've a high of 12 and a low of 4 Tuesday morning. The NWS has a high 22 and a low of 5, So they keep dropping it as we closer, which is the usual way they do it. The GFS is showing temps going below zero and struggling to get above 0 for even highs now. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/index.php?model=gfs NWS now shows -8F monday night for clintwood. It started the day showing 2F, so they def. keep dropping it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, they've got our local forecast down to 17 for a high for both Monday and Tuesday now, down from the 20s, and a low -1 Monday night/Tues. morning and 9 for Tues. night/Wed. morning. They do this often, go with the higher values then drop it as the time nears, they like the GFS MOS guidance a lot. WJHL just had a low of 0 for Johnson City Monday night and a high of 17..if that says anything. Just seen a tweet regarding 12z guidance for GFS MOS showing a HIGH of -2 for Cincinnati on Monday. Per records, that would be the 6th subzero high in 140 years for Cinci. There's a strong north polar vortex that's going to get caught up in this deep trough swinging across the U.S. and may drop it down into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. *Just checked my local forecast from the Weather Channel, they've got -3 for a low Monday night, with 17 and 16 for highs. Don't forget about tonight and tomorrow either. Tonight's lows down into the low teens and single digits, with a gusty northwest wind dropping wind chills below zero. High temps tomorrow struggle to get to 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1inStripes 932 Report Share Posted January 2, 2014 Read where there were around 40 wrecks in Scott County this morning. The wife waited to go into work until it warmed up a bit thankfully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2014 ...and they still lowering those forecasted temps, haha. If it's any indication, most now are projecting the Bristol/Kingsport, etc. to go below zero. So, yeah pretty cold. Wind Chills look to be dangerously cold, winds 5-15 with gusts over 20, that will drop wind chills below zero and as low as -20 (or even -30 possible in the mountains) overnight/early mornings. Falling snow and snow on the ground could get blown around quite a bit, so whiteout conditions possible. Looks like a long duration upslope event for the mountains. Any water standing Sunday could flash freeze after the front passes and those temperatures plummet. Layer of ice, snow pack, frozen surface of snow.....sounds like some good fun there. The most impressive thing about this shot of arctic air is the long duration, we'll be below freezing for 2 days and a possibility of 3 for some if highs don't reach 32 on Wednesday. Yet another system works in here late next week. I worry with this one, especially at the onset, with the cold ground it could mean another freezing rain threat. Speaking of freezing rain, watch out for that if the rain Sunday works in here in the morning, could see a little bit of that if so. 2014 starting off wildly. I'd say the active/wet pattern will continue for a while too. I've been reading up on some saying there's a good chance for a major sudden stratospheric warming event in mid-January or so, which may lead to more of these extreme, long duration cold snaps later on down the road. Hooray!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted January 4, 2014 The arctic blast is gonna be something else. lol we will probably pick up 2-4 maybe 5 inches of snow in the most favored spots, but im gonna freeze my beard off Monday night/Tuesday morning.....going to be pretty darn near 6 to 10 below zero as actual air temps.......and every single state, even Hawaii will be below freezing Tuesday morning. Its been a LONG time since its been this cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 4, 2014 I notice the NWS forecasts dipping about 2 degrees every day. Good call, BB. :) I'm interested to see exactly what the lows actually are on Tuesday morning. The snow concerns me, but I love the large variation in air temps compared to what we're used to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted January 4, 2014 I notice the NWS forecasts dipping about 2 degrees every day. Good call, BB. :) I'm interested to see exactly what the lows actually are on Tuesday morning. The snow concerns me, but I love the large variation in air temps compared to what we're used to. If you like large temperature variations, you should have been around in January, 1985...in Bluefield, the high for the month was 72*, the low was -21*. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 I believe that the official low for Bluefield was -7. Unofficially -11 in the 'Ville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redtiger 1,742 Report Share Posted January 7, 2014 Lowest I've seen here was -4 last night(about midnight), highest in the past 2 days was 17 and it only lasted for about a half hour yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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