futbolking 766 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter has been a little disappointing thus far.... I'm a fan of snow.. What's up with this weather, huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker 82 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 I blame GMan for getting his ankle fixed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter has been a little disappointing thus far.... I'm a fan of snow.. What's up with this weather, huh? 6 to 8 more weeks before we are out of the woods...give it time...I have a feeling we are going to have some bad weather soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasDenton 79 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 This winter has been a little disappointing thus far.... I'm a fan of snow.. What's up with this weather, huh? I'm pretty disappointed too. All I heard over the summer and fall was that this winter would be pretty bad (lots of snow), especially when people started talking about El Nino and such. But like Lance said, we've still got time. Seems like winter here is being pushed back further and further. No snow in December and most of January, but still get at least flurries in the spring. Maybe we need to update the seasonal calenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 My theory... Does anyone remember the huge earthquake that caused the giant tsunami several years back??? That quake was strong enough to shift the earth's axis...our area is now a little further south than it used to be thus the warmer, milder weather. To back this up, places directly opposite the eastern US on the other side of the globe have been facing much colder than normal temps in the Northern Hemisphere...Russia/Northern China...because they are now a bit further north and much warmer than normal temps in the Southern Hemisphere...Australia...because they are further north and now closer to the equator. BTW...break out your long johns because this time next week it is going to be COLD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 My theory... Does anyone remember the huge earthquake that caused the giant tsunami several years back??? That quake was strong enough to shift the earth's axis...our area is now a little further south than it used to be thus the warmer, milder weather. To back this up, places directly opposite the eastern US on the other side of the globe have been facing much colder than normal temps in the Northern Hemisphere...Russia/Northern China...because they are now a bit further north and much warmer than normal temps in the Southern Hemisphere...Australia...because they are further north and now closer to the equator. BTW...break out your long johns because this time next week it is going to be COLD... interesting. I could see that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 My theory... Does anyone remember the huge earthquake that caused the giant tsunami several years back??? That quake was strong enough to shift the earth's axis...our area is now a little further south than it used to be thus the warmer, milder weather. To back this up, places directly opposite the eastern US on the other side of the globe have been facing much colder than normal temps in the Northern Hemisphere...Russia/Northern China...because they are now a bit further north and much warmer than normal temps in the Southern Hemisphere...Australia...because they are further north and now closer to the equator. BTW...break out your long johns because this time next week it is going to be COLD... interesting. I could see that happening. Even a one degree shift southward would put the Bluefield area where the Mt. Airy area is now. Two degrees you would be in the Charlotte area and three degrees would put you in Columbia, SC. That 9.1 Indonesian earthquake/tsunami occurred at the end of 2004...think about all the crazy weather since then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Even a one degree shift southward would put the Bluefield area where the Mt. Airy area is now. Two degrees you would be in the Charlotte area and three degrees would put you in Columbia, SC. That 9.1 Indonesian earthquake/tsunami occurred at the end of 2004...think about all the crazy weather since then. While true, the earth did wobble on its axis about 2.5 cm., it precessed more due east than southward. This doesn't mean it's insignificant, but it does mean that it's not going to have the effect that you're claiming here. Plus, the Chandler wobble causes Earth to vary some some 15 meters in its tilt every 433 days, and it will offset this. Yay, ASTR 121. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 (edited) I'd say one factor at least could be that we've not had many of our typical northwesterly flow events. That's where most of our snow events come from, not the biggest, but the most common. We had a good period of colder weather again before the big warm up but the northwesterly flow events behind systems have been less numerous. The rain/snow line, like usual, always seem to like set up right along the Ohio River line too and not want to drop much. Big snow events here most often come from southern track systems that turn up the east slopes of the Apps (i.e. Superstorm of '98, Blizzard '93, Dec. '09 storm, and so forth) and those are hard to come by in just the right way. They've got to be close enough to throw a lot of moisture on the north side but not close enough to pull too much warm air up...and you usually want to them to start off weak then strengthen as they turn up the eastern slopes that way they'll drawn in the colder air more rapidly. As GMan said, if you like cold weather, you'll like the arctic plunge next week. The little stretch of warm weather was nice while we had it, haha. If this next pattern shift can hold and we can get a trough established in the east again, that will help our chances out, and I think that's going to happen. By the way, there's a little storm showing up for Thursday on the models that's very similar (although weaker) to the type of big snow producing storms I was referring too before. And it appears to be a GFS vs. NAM war, and most local mets are going with the GFS which has the storm too far south of us to have much, if any, affect. However, the NAM takes the storm farther norther and was dropping a good swath of accumulating snow over much of the region in some of the more recent runs. The latest run (12z) takes it just a bit more eastward and puts western NC in the thumping zone. Still will see it wobble back and forth over the next day, its just how little it will take in the change of track to cause a big difference in totals. Something to keep in mind the next couple of days. Just something to watch the forecasts and see how it goes I guess. I don't care much for how the locals mets are writing it off and almost completely ignoring, too close of a call to do that. Got any thinking of how it will GMan? Edited January 15, 2013 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker 82 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 While true, the earth did wobble on its axis about 2.5 cm., it precessed more due east than southward. This doesn't mean it's insignificant, but it does mean that it's not going to have the effect that you're claiming here. Plus, the Chandler wobble causes Earth to vary some some 15 meters in its tilt every 433 days, and it will offset this. Yay, ASTR 121. See college can broaden the mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Got any thinking of how it will GMan? We will get snow out of this next cold blast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter storm watches going up for parts of the region for this Thursday storm. Models are slowly getting closer to agreeing on the track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep, up to four inches in the Bluefield area on Thursday. At least it isn't freezing rain/ice... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep, up to four inches in the Bluefield area on Thursday. At least it isn't freezing rain/ice... and 50 on Friday...lol...short lived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 (edited) 12z NAM run continues with targeting us with the bigger. 30-33 hr timeframe looks to from rain to heavy wet snow. Dynamic cooling looks to play a role in this one. We'll see if the GFS goes the same route or not when its next run rolls in. 12z NAM 850mb charts, blue line is the freezing line at about 5000 ft. Not an exact rain/snow line indicator with one it being at that elevation and you've got to consider temperatures throughout the entire profile, bit its still often a pretty close estimation. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam&cycle=12&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip Edited January 16, 2013 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS coming in and its in line with the NAM, upping the chances for a heavy snow event, especially for the eastern mountains, and maybe for much of the region. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 there's a little storm showing up for Thursday on the models that's very similar (although weaker) to the type of big snow producing storms I was referring too before. And it appears to be a GFS vs. NAM war, and most local mets are going with the GFS which has the storm too far south of us to have much, if any, affect. However, the NAM takes the storm farther norther and was dropping a good swath of accumulating snow over much of the region in some of the more recent runs. The latest run (12z) takes it just a bit more eastward and puts western NC in the thumping zone. Still will see it wobble back and forth over the next day, its just how little it will take in the change of track to cause a big difference in totals. Something to keep in mind the next couple of days. Just something to watch the forecasts and see how it goes I guess. I don't care much for how the locals mets are writing it off and almost completely ignoring, Looks like you might have nailed this one....way before the local media did.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 By the way, there's a little storm showing up for Thursday on the models that's very similar (although weaker) to the type of big snow producing storms I was referring too before. And it appears to be a GFS vs. NAM war, and most local mets are going with the GFS which has the storm too far south of us to have much, if any, affect. However, the NAM takes the storm farther norther and was dropping a good swath of accumulating snow over much of the region in some of the more recent runs. The latest run (12z) takes it just a bit more eastward and puts western NC in the thumping zone. Still will see it wobble back and forth over the next day, its just how little it will take in the change of track to cause a big difference in totals. Something to keep in mind the next couple of days. Just something to watch the forecasts and see how it goes I guess. I don't care much for how the locals mets are writing it off and almost completely ignoring, too close of a call to do that. Got any thinking of how it will GMan? Looks like you nailed this one way before the local media did.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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