Ryan4VT 4,557 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 Some of y'all know what CalPreps is. It's an algorithm based website that projects high school football across the country. It's usually pretty accurate. They've predicted season records and district standings for all of our SWVA teams. In some cases, they also give top players and team strengths and weaknesses. I'll post them here for discussion. Southwest: Graham 9-1 1st Richlands 6-4 2nd Virginia 4-6 3rd Marion 3-7 4th Tazewell 3-7 5th Lebanon 1-9 6th Mountain 7: Abingdon 9-1 1st Ridgeview 8-2 2nd Union 5-5 3rd Battle 6-4 4th Central 4-6 5th Gate City 2-8 6th Lee 2-8 7th Black Diamond: Grundy 7-3 1st Honaker 6-4 2nd Hurley 4-6 3rd Twin Valley 4-6 4th Cumberland: Burton 8-2 1st Thomas Waker 7-3 2nd Eastside 5-5 3rd Castlewood 3-7 4th Rye Cove 5-5 5th Twin Springs 3-7 6th Hogo: Chilhowie 10-0 1st Patrick Henry 9-1 2nd Holston 5-5 3rd Rural Retreat 3-7 4th Nothwood 1-9 5th MED: Galax 8-2 1st George Wythe 8-2 2nd Grayson Co. 8-2 3rd Ft. Chiswell 4-6 4th Auburn 5-5 5th Misc: Narrows 8-2 1st in Pioneer Pulaski 8-2 2nd River Ridge Radford 10-0 1st Three Rivers Giles 4-6 4th Three Rivers Carroll Co. 4-6 5th Three Rivers Bluefield 10-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer pride 70 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 From what I've seen in the projections its not that accurate. It has Grundy at 7-3, they are in for a rebuilding season. I also disagree with where Lebanon and Tazwell finish. Tazwell is primed for a good year and Lebanon won't go 1-9, they will win at least 4. Virginia High might not win 4 the way they looked in the benefit game. Marion will also struggle. In the Southwest I would have Tazwell at 3 and Lebanon at 4, Virginia High 5, and Marion 6. I would also argue Patrick Henry not Chilhowie runs the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan4VT 4,557 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, Pioneer pride said: From what I've seen in the projections its not that accurate. It has Grundy at 7-3, they are in for a rebuilding season. I also disagree with where Lebanon and Tazwell finish. Tazwell is primed for a good year and Lebanon won't go 1-9, they will win at least 4. Virginia High might not win 4 the way they looked in the benefit game. Marion will also struggle. In the Southwest I would have Tazwell at 3 and Lebanon at 4, Virginia High 5, and Marion 6. I would also argue Patrick Henry not Chilhowie runs the table. These are just preseason projections based on stats and who left the program and such. They’ll start predicting matchups on Oct 1st and they’re usually over 90% on those. This is the first time I’ve seen them do a preseason thing like that. Pioneer pride 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandpaw trojan 17 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 Gate City has too many returning players back to just win 2 games, an new coach will see to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westisthebest 88 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 Edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westisthebest 88 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 Seems about right for Richlands. I see losses to Union, Bluefield, Graham, Abingdon and Radford. May sneak in a win with one of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokie1Pokie 350 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 6 hours ago, Ryan4VT said: These are just preseason projections based on stats and who left the program and such. They’ll start predicting matchups on Oct 1st and they’re usually over 90% on those. This is the first time I’ve seen them do a preseason thing like that. Yep, preseason not accurate. The accuracy increases as more data is entered (teams playing teams and those teams playing other teams), etc. Any study or statistic is stronger or less prone to error by having more data (sample size). Its very accurate, but in preseason it's of little value. For example, it has no idea how solid Tazewell or Richlands has looked in the preseason scrimmages. The eyeball test tells most of us Tazewell is going to be better than 3-7. Late last year, it did have East Rockingham beating Goochland and if I'm not mistaken it had Poquoson beating Goochland in their region championship the week before. It had Appo over Radford and projected East Rockingham beating Graham. I suspect the out of state projections like Graham vs whoever South Dakota is mostly fun and the accuracy and reliability on these projections is probably much lower because there isn't as much data, not as much sample size to go into their algorithm for a projection Gridiron60 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan4VT 4,557 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 33 minutes ago, Hokie1Pokie said: Yep, preseason not accurate. The accuracy increases as more data is entered (teams playing teams and those teams playing other teams), etc. Any study or statistic is stronger or less prone to error by having more data (sample size). Its very accurate, but in preseason it's of little value. For example, it has no idea how solid Tazewell or Richlands has looked in the preseason scrimmages. The eyeball test tells most of us Tazewell is going to be better than 3-7. Late last year, it did have East Rockingham beating Goochland and if I'm not mistaken it had Poquoson beating Goochland in their region championship the week before. It had Appo over Radford and projected East Rockingham beating Graham. I suspect the out of state projections like Graham vs whoever South Dakota is mostly fun and the accuracy and reliability on these projections is probably much lower because there isn't as much data, not as much sample size to go into their algorithm for a projection Exactly. These aren’t meant to be the definitive season projections. Just something fun to look at. By week 6 or, they’ll have it pretty accurate week to week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva_havok_fan 1,261 Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 21 hours ago, Hokie1Pokie said: Yep, preseason not accurate. The accuracy increases as more data is entered (teams playing teams and those teams playing other teams), etc. Any study or statistic is stronger or less prone to error by having more data (sample size). Its very accurate, but in preseason it's of little value. For example, it has no idea how solid Tazewell or Richlands has looked in the preseason scrimmages. The eyeball test tells most of us Tazewell is going to be better than 3-7. Late last year, it did have East Rockingham beating Goochland and if I'm not mistaken it had Poquoson beating Goochland in their region championship the week before. It had Appo over Radford and projected East Rockingham beating Graham. I suspect the out of state projections like Graham vs whoever South Dakota is mostly fun and the accuracy and reliability on these projections is probably much lower because there isn't as much data, not as much sample size to go into their algorithm for a projection Whenever the Class 2 playoff bracket was released last year, I actually used CalPreps to predict it all the way through for the Bracket Challenge contest that Ryan does here on the site. It actually had Ridgeview and East Rock playing for it all in Salem using their site. Well, it didn't quit turn out that way much to my dismay. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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