Election Tracker:

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Since we're 6 weeks out, I figure a nice, detailed analysis of the election trends is in order.

 

Most of you know the drill. 538 votes, 270 needed to win.

 

As it stands right now, I have the count of "ironclad locks" at Obama-237, Romney-206.

 

Here's the breakdown:

 

Obama

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (20)

Maine (4)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (11)

Michigan (16)

Minnesota (10)

New Jersey (14)

New Mexico (5)

New York (29)

Oregon (7)

Pennsylvania (20)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (12)

 

Romney

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (11)

Arkansas (6)

Georgia (16)

Idaho (4)

Indiana (11)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Missouri (10)

Montana (3)

Nebraska (5)

North Carolina (15)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (9)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (38)

Utah (6)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

 

That leaves us with exactly 95 votes from 8 toss-up states. Those are:

 

Colorado (9)

Florida (29)

Iowa (6)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

 

There are as many polls out there as elbows and a-holes. However, when you want to determine a presidential election as closely as possible, you want to look at the people who will actually show up to vote. The poll that does by far the best job of this is Rasmussen. It's not even close, actually. For whatever reason, polls that do not do this always have an error favoring Democrats by as many as 2-10%. Rasmussen was within half (no, really...HALF) a percentage point in 2004, and was within 1% in 2008. Dat's good. If you factor the polls in, here's how the toss-up states look (O for Obama, R for Romney, +% as the percentage ahead):

 

Colorado (R +2%)

Florida (O +2%)

Iowa (R +3%)

Nevada (O +2%)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (O +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

As a refresher, the count is Obama-237, Romney-206. Obama needs 33 votes to win, Romney needs 64. As I see it, Romney MUST take Florida and Ohio to stand a reasonable chance. Virginia, while heartbreaking to lose, would give Romney at least a sliver of hope. With a Virginia/Nevada/Wisconsin combo, that's just 29 votes. Give Romney the 3 states he leads + Florida + Ohio, and Virginia becomes irrelevant.

 

Florida's numbers, it should be said, should be taken with a grain of salt, due to the RNC in Tampa last month.

 

Two statistics that should give Republicans hope:

1. 58% of Republicans are following this election daily. 47% of Democrats are. That is a variable highly influencing turnout.

2. 64% of Americans believe that people in the United States are too entitled.

 

Going to be an interesting stretch.

Edited September 24, 2012 by UVAObserver

[Hacker 82]

I am pulling for a Constitutional crisis of a tie in the Electoral College. This of course throws the election to the House, and expose the flaw with the Electoral College. It will be great if the majority vote getter ends up losing in what will most likely be a Republican majority House.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

I am pulling for a Constitutional crisis of a tie in the Electoral College. This of course throws the election to the House, and expose the flaw with the Electoral College. It will be great if the majority vote getter ends up losing in what will most likely be a Republican majority House.

 

The doomsday scenario happens if Obama can get 32 more votes. Some possible ones are:

 

Colorado, Iowa/Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia

Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia

 

I cannot find any including Nevada and Wisconsin, the two states of that bunch most likely to go for Obama.

[bucfan64 307]

I am pulling for a Constitutional crisis of a tie in the Electoral College. This of course throws the election to the House, and expose the flaw with the Electoral College. It will be great if the majority vote getter ends up losing in what will most likely be a Republican majority House.

 

There are Flaws with any system, but the last thing we would want is for the popular vote nationwide to determine the President of the U.S., for that reason I still support the electoral college system, with a popular vote scenario, small population states would be out voted and their voice would not be heard in the same manner that larger states would be, therefore rendering them "less important" to candidates.

 

I don't mind your scenario of having the house determine the outcome, but I don't see that happening, but then again, this election is going to be very interesting!

[Deleted Account 5,203]

As a small aside, my dream scenario is to see Obama get 270 to Romney's 268, only to have a faithless elector tie it up from a place like PA, which has some rabidly conservative districts, many of which are in the western part of the state, many of which are big coal producers. And PA has no laws punishing faithless electors or invalidating such votes.

 

And, if Wisconsin/Nevada/Ohio all go for Obama, it would have the tiniest of chances.

 

Of course, I hope Romney wins outright. But still.

Edited September 24, 2012 by UVAObserver

[Hacker 82]

As a small aside, my dream scenario is to see Obama get 270 to Romney's 268, only to have a faithless elector tie it up from a place like PA, which has some rabidly conservative districts, many of which are in the western part of the state, many of which are big coal producers. And PA has no laws punishing faithless electors or invalidating such votes.

 

And, if Wisconsin/Nevada/Ohio all go for Obama, it would have the tiniest of chances.

 

Of course, I hope Romney wins outright. But still.

 

We also need to factor in that Nebraska and Maine proportion their votes by Congressional District.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

We also need to factor in that Nebraska and Maine proportion their votes by Congressional District.

 

Crap, that's right.

 

Last election was the only one in my parents' lifetimes that Nebraska and Maine didn't go straight Republican or straight Democrat. Obama received 1 of Nebraska's votes, the first time a Democrat got a Nebraska vote since Lyndon Johnson.

 

Though not common, and not predicted this time, it is something that might swing a very, very close election.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Time for an update on this bad boy.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

 

My, my, my. How things are in flux just 4 weeks from the big day.

 

Here is how things looked two weeks ago in our 9 toss-up states:

 

Colorado (R +2%)

Florida (O +2%)

Iowa (R +3%)

Nevada (O +2%)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (O +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

Here's how things look today:

 

Colorado (O +1%)

Florida (R +2%)

Iowa (O +2%)

Nevada (even)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (R +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

My bolding shows that 4 states have flipped, 2 for each candidate. I had a suspicion that Florida and VA would turn Republican as time went on, as I did that Iowa and Colorado might turn Democrat.

 

As we recall, the total toss-up votes were:

 

Colorado (9)

Florida (29)

Iowa (6)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

 

And the scorecard of locks read: Obama-237, Romney-206.

 

The total, if things stood as today, would be: Obama-280, Romney-252, with Nevada's 6 votes just a' danglin'.

 

Winning Ohio would be JUST enough for Romney. It would take him to exactly 270. He needs to focus on keeping VA and FL, and just hammer Ohio like his life depends on it. NH is likely safe this time around.

Edited October 10, 2012 by UVAObserver

[wave316 64]

Since we're 6 weeks out, I figure a nice, detailed analysis of the election trends is in order.

 

Most of you know the drill. 538 votes, 270 needed to win.

 

As it stands right now, I have the count of "ironclad locks" at Obama-237, Romney-206.

 

Here's the breakdown:

 

Obama

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (20)

Maine (4)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (11)

Michigan (16)

Minnesota (10)

New Jersey (14)

New Mexico (5)

New York (29)

Oregon (7)

Pennsylvania (20)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (12)

 

Romney

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (11)

Arkansas (6)

Georgia (16)

Idaho (4)

Indiana (11)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Missouri (10)

Montana (3)

Nebraska (5)

North Carolina (15)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (9)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (38)

Utah (6)

West Virginia (5)

Wyoming (3)

 

That leaves us with exactly 95 votes from 8 toss-up states. Those are:

 

Colorado (9)

Florida (29)

Iowa (6)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

 

There are as many polls out there as elbows and a-holes. However, when you want to determine a presidential election as closely as possible, you want to look at the people who will actually show up to vote. The poll that does by far the best job of this is Rasmussen. It's not even close, actually. For whatever reason, polls that do not do this always have an error favoring Democrats by as many as 2-10%. Rasmussen was within half (no, really...HALF) a percentage point in 2004, and was within 1% in 2008. Dat's good. If you factor the polls in, here's how the toss-up states look (O for Obama, R for Romney, +% as the percentage ahead):

 

Colorado (R +2%)

Florida (O +2%)

Iowa (R +3%)

Nevada (O +2%)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (O +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

As a refresher, the count is Obama-237, Romney-206. Obama needs 33 votes to win, Romney needs 64. As I see it, Romney MUST take Florida and Ohio to stand a reasonable chance. Virginia, while heartbreaking to lose, would give Romney at least a sliver of hope. With a Virginia/Nevada/Wisconsin combo, that's just 29 votes. Give Romney the 3 states he leads + Florida + Ohio, and Virginia becomes irrelevant.

 

Florida's numbers, it should be said, should be taken with a grain of salt, due to the RNC in Tampa last month.

 

Two statistics that should give Republicans hope:

1. 58% of Republicans are following this election daily. 47% of Democrats are. That is a variable highly influencing turnout.

2. 64% of Americans believe that people in the United States are too entitled.

 

Going to be an interesting stretch.

 

Rasmussen Polls have Romney leading in Florida and Va...

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Rasmussen Polls have Romney leading in Florida and Va...

 

Hence, my update today. :)

 

Rasmussen is the only commercial service I trust, really. They are accurate every election to within tenths of a percent.

[wave316 64]

Time for an update on this bad boy.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

 

My, my, my. How things are in flux just 4 weeks from the big day.

 

Here is how things looked two weeks ago in our 9 toss-up states:

 

Colorado (R +2%)

Florida (O +2%)

Iowa (R +3%)

Nevada (O +2%)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (O +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

Here's how things look today:

 

Colorado (O +1%)

Florida (R +2%)

Iowa (O +2%)

Nevada (even)

New Hampshire (R +3%)

Ohio (O +1%)

Virginia (R +1%)

Wisconsin (O +3%)

 

My bolding shows that 4 states have flipped, 2 for each candidate. I had a suspicion that Florida and VA would turn Republican as time went on, as I did that Iowa and Colorado might turn Democrat.

 

As we recall, the total toss-up votes were:

 

Colorado (9)

Florida (29)

Iowa (6)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

 

And the scorecard of locks read: Obama-237, Romney-206.

 

The total, if things stood as today, would be: Obama-280, Romney-252, with Nevada's 6 votes just a' danglin'.

 

Winning Ohio would be JUST enough for Romney. It would take him to exactly 270. He needs to focus on keeping VA and FL, and just hammer Ohio like his life depends on it. NH is likely safe this time around.

 

Winning Ohio will depend on winning the womens vote..some republican leaders are asking that Mitt Romney's wife do a tv ad to target this critical block of voters.... I agree with your strategy of focosing on Va ,Florida hammer Ohio !

[Hacker 82]

Dang there are so many polls and so much data that the water is completely muddied. I long for the simpler time when George Gallup, and Elliot Roper were the only pollsters around.

 

Did you see the Daily Show take on all of the polls and pundits last night? It ended with them saying that the polling shows a 100% certainty that on Nov. 5th no one will care about polling.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Dang there are so many polls and so much data that the water is completely muddied. I long for the simpler time when George Gallup, and Elliot Roper were the only pollsters around.

 

Did you see the Daily Show take on all of the polls and pundits last night? It ended with them saying that the polling shows a 100% certainty that on Nov. 5th no one will care about polling.

 

On one hand, it's true that after November 5th, polling's a null set.

On another, their boy's taking a smacking in the polling data this week.

 

If Obama were leading 53-45 or something like that, the take would be different.

[Hacker 82]

I was referring to the mocking of the plethora of polls, with often contradictory results. I think the media encourages the minutia in polling to gin up discussion to fill the endless news cycle.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

I was referring to the mocking of the plethora of polls, with often contradictory results. I think the media encourages the minutia in polling to gin up discussion to fill the endless news cycle.

 

I think the media's interest is different and more sinister.

[Hacker 82]

I think the media's interest is different and more sinister.

 

You are way to young to be such a cynic. That usually is the case with old goats, like me.

[swvacsas2 15]

A poll is only as good as its methodology. Some polls are plainly wanting- generalized telephone surveys etc. It takes good research and time to set up a proper poll. Some states are more difficult to get in a good statistical breakdown because of the available information- as no party registration et al. A lot of the better polls are not released for public consumption. Most polls have a basis in fact, but an error in one paradigm can mess things up.

[Hacker 82]

A poll is only as good as its methodology. Some polls are plainly wanting- generalized telephone surveys etc. It takes good research and time to set up a proper poll. Some states are more difficult to get in a good statistical breakdown because of the available information- as no party registration et al. A lot of the better polls are not released for public consumption. Most polls have a basis in fact, but an error in one paradigm can mess things up.

 

Polling now has the additional challenge of getting a cross-section of the population. Phone surveys are limited in that many no longer have land lines and mobile lines are harder to tie to individuals. Also there is the added factor of folks (like me) who refuse to respond to surveys. And finally, there are those who intentionally lie to skew the date. (incredible common in exit polling.)

[legend11 32]

Thoughts on the VP debate last night? Here are mine if anyone cares:

 

1.) I didn't appreciate Joe Biden's incredulous smile, interruptions, and condescending tone he had the entire night. It came across as patronizing, dismissive, and impatient.

 

2.) In the same vein of being condescending, Joe Biden needs to not say things like, "who do you trust here?" and "use common sense, America." It seems like he thinks the electorate is dumb.

 

3.) It seems odd that the VP's would have to spend so much time talking foreign policy. I would hope it is discussed more in the upcoming presidential debates.

 

4.) Ryan still has trouble getting into the nuances of the R&R tax plan. They say they are going to "close loopholes," but when pressed on the issue, both Romney and Ryan still clam up. At least Ryan last night said something about "bi-partisan support..." for which loop holes to close, which is still a non-answer answer. It leads me to believe that the Romney/Ryan ticket is hiding something that wouldn't be appealing to an electorate in the days before an election.

 

5.) What kind of toothpaste does Biden use? Dude's got some white teeth.

[hokie07 11]

My thoughts on the VP debate:

 

1.) I don't think there is a person in this world that I wouldn't love to punch right in the face more than Joe Biden. The guy is a prick and it legitimately pissed me off just looking at him last night.

 

2.) Once again, the moderator was terrible.

 

That's about all I got out of the debate last night. Nothing really stands out to me because most of the time I couldn't concentrate on what was actually being said due to the distractions of points 1 and 2 (mostly 1). I'll spend the morning reading followup articles for a refresher and report back with a little more intellectual insight.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

My thoughts on the VP debate:

 

1.) I don't think there is a person in this world that I wouldn't love to punch right in the face more than Joe Biden. The guy is a prick and it legitimately pissed me off just looking at him last night.

 

2.) Once again, the moderator was terrible.

 

That's about all I got out of the debate last night. Nothing really stands out to me because most of the time I couldn't concentrate on what was actually being said due to the distractions of points 1 and 2 (mostly 1). I'll spend the morning reading followup articles for a refresher and report back with a little more intellectual insight.

 

This is closer to my thoughts, TBH.

 

Biden should've cleaned Ryan's clock with how uninspiring Ryan's performance was. Instead, Joe "The Human Gaffe Machine" Biden spent the entire time revelling in his "victory". He should've taken a page out of Romney's playbook. I cannot get past it: Joe Biden, of all people, being condescending toward someone who's making a mistake. That's a rare irony, folks.

[BHS03 99]

Just a little statistic that I gathered. Important stat? Maybe.

 

Moments before the debate I visited the Facebook pages of Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. At the time Joe Biden had 418,283 likes. Paul Ryan had 4,142,616.

 

At this minute Biden has nearly 444,000 likes, an addition of 25,717. Paul Ryan has nearly 4,347,000 likes, an addition of 204,384 likes.

 

Maybe it's a meaningless stat because there is no way of knowing the number of those people who are likely to go out in vote. What it does tell me is that Paul Ryan is favored 8 to 1 compared to Joe Biden.

[redtiger 1,740]

I thought Ryan came across as real and Biden came across as a politician. It felt like Ryan had a plan(even if a vague one) and Biden was just jockeying for position.

 

Im with Hokie 07, I really, really dont like Biden. He kept interrupting and that smile is just sleazy. I thought he put on a clinic last night in how to be a jackass.

[wave316 64]

I thought Ryan came across as real and Biden came across as a politician. It felt like Ryan had a plan(even if a vague one) and Biden was just jockeying for position.

 

Im with Hokie 07, I really, really dont like Biden. He kept interrupting and that smile is just sleazy. I thought he put on a clinic last night in how to be a jackass.

 

Have to agree with you redtiger... think what Biden was hoping to accomplish was fire up the democratic base...because of the presidents awful performance earlier....but it may have hurt Biden with independants as he came across as a bully ...

[Deleted Account 5,203]

I'm very, very close to putting Florida in the lock column for Romney.

 

Romney's up by 4 in FL, crossing the 50% threshold, and the deficit-now-lead has been growing in Romney's favor for the past 4 weeks. If he gains another 1% this week, Florida's going to be a Romney lock.

 

Virginia's still R +2%. Ohio is still O +1%, but...more people in Ohio are undecided than have been in weeks past. That's a small victory for Romney, as it brings Obama under 50%.

Edited October 15, 2012 by UVAObserver