Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2012 (edited) And on Friday's update, Florida is now 51-46 Romney. Florida becomes a Romney lock in my eyes. VA's next on that list. VA's crossed the 50% threshold in VA. Another point or two, I'll move it. However, Romney had some poor polling come from NV (Obama 50-47). Obama still leads by 1 in OH, CO, and NH, and 2 in IA and WI. Edited October 20, 2012 by UVAObserver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redtiger 1,740 Report Share Posted October 20, 2012 Have to agree with you redtiger... think what Biden was hoping to accomplish was fire up the democratic base...because of the presidents awful performance earlier....but it may have hurt Biden with independants as he came across as a bully ... I think Biden looks bad but its part of the Democratic strategy. Obama can look respectable and Biden can do the attacking. Makes sense but makes Biden look terrible, doesent reflect too well on Obama either The point was to put up the immage that the Democrats wont be pushed around but instead it makes them look like the aggressors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 HUGE swing in Colorado in the last week. Went from O +1% to R +4%. Iowa, likewise, has went from O +2% to a dead heat. I think a recap is prudent here, just 2 weeks out: Additions to "lock" status: Obama-none, Romney-Florida Lock tally: Obama-237, Romney-235 Swing States: 2 weeks ago: Colorado (O +1%) Iowa (O +2%) Nevada (even) New Hampshire (R +3%) Ohio (O +1%) Virginia (R +1%) Wisconsin (O +3%) Swing States TODAY: (bolded means a flip from one side to another) Colorado (R +4%) Iowa (even) Nevada (O +3%) New Hampshire (O +1%) Ohio (O +1%) Virginia (R +3%) Wisconsin (O +2%) As we recall, the total toss-up votes were: Colorado (9) Iowa (6) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Ohio (18) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) Ohio's still awfully important. If Obama wins Ohio, he's at 255. That means that he needs 15 more votes for a majority. As we see above, Obama leads in NV, NH, and WI. Assume, for a minute, that Romney carries VA, CO, and IA. But...Nevada has the highest unemployment percentage in the nation at 13.5%. If Romney were to make a late push, that would leave Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Which would result in the dreaded 269-269 tie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 The updates yesterday did the following: (1) Flip NH back to Romney +2% (2) Push NV back with Obama +2% (3) Make me dangerously close to putting MN as a toss-up (Obama +5%) (4) Put OH at even for the first time. OH is big, big, big. It is interesting to note, though, that Obama is strongly ahead among early voters in OH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2012 Romney FINALLY overtakes Obama in OH: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president The data is still concerning that early voting is coming back favorably for Obama, but this is a first: Romney leading OH. Expect many, many, many articles from CNN about how Obama leads OH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wave316 64 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Romney FINALLY overtakes Obama in OH:http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president The data is still concerning that early voting is coming back favorably for Obama, but this is a first: Romney leading OH. Expect many, many, many articles from CNN about how Obama leads OH. Where are you getting the data that early voting in Ohio is favoring Obama...sites I have checked have not released which way the early votes have favored..the sites do show percents of county early voting but not whether for Romney or Obama... Nevada early voting is different which shows what party votes totals are... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHS03 99 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Should we start a swvasports.com Presidential election poll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Should we start a swvasports.com Presidential election poll? funny...i was just making one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbgfan 855 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/10/31/presidential-candidates-reduce-a-4-year-old-to-tears/ Life has many choices---eternity two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHS03 99 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Drudge is teasing that a sex scandal is going to hit the campaign. Apparently involving a powerful Senator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbgfan 855 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Life has many choices---eternity two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend11 32 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Should we start a swvasports.com Presidential election poll? What. To see who members of swvasports.com will vote for? That's about as useful as a thread started by Southbound or Falconman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueTornadoFan 17 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 What. To see who members of swvasports.com will vote for? That's about as useful as a thread started by Southbound or Falconman. Hey now, their threads are useful! They give us laughs when we need them. It's fun when they're around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHS03 99 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 What. To see who members of swvasports.com will vote for? That's about as useful as a thread started by Southbound or Falconman. Not suppose to be useful. Just for fun. If you look though Lance has posted one with a different twist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Where are you getting the data that early voting in Ohio is favoring Obama...sites I have checked have not released which way the early votes have favored..the sites do show percents of county early voting but not whether for Romney or Obama... Nevada early voting is different which shows what party votes totals are... Going on a week-old Rasmussen report, which may be in need of some tweaking now as we're just 5 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1inStripes 932 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Drudge is teasing that a sex scandal is going to hit the campaign. Apparently involving a powerful Senator. Bob Menendez, not paying hookers in the Dominic what he said he would. http://www.caintv.com/DemocratSenatoraccusedofhiringprostitutesinDominicanRepublic-670 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueinbama 259 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Drudge is teasing that a sex scandal is going to hit the campaign. Apparently involving a powerful Senator. It couldn't be any worse than how we're being screwed now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker 82 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Bob Menendez, not paying hookers in the Dominic what he said he would. http://www.caintv.com/DemocratSenatoraccusedofhiringprostitutesinDominicanRepublic-670 Unless something breaks over the weekend, the Oct. Surprise has been Sandy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wave316 64 Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Going on a week-old Rasmussen report, which may be in need of some tweaking now as we're just 5 days out. Rasmussen just posted that Romney takes the lead in the state of Iowa...49-48 %I believe.... NPR has Romney recieving 51 to 39 % of Independants polled..called the ''Hidden Vote''. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2012 Rasmussen just posted that Romney takes the lead in the state of Iowa...49-48 %I believe.... NPR has Romney recieving 51 to 39 % of Independants polled..called the ''Hidden Vote''. That's great news! The trend for the last 4 weeks has been for undecideds to shift to Romney, and that's what we're seeing here. One small note, the sample size for the Iowa sample was larger than the previous samples. And this is the blurb I'm referring to: "Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote.": http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trublue 939 Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just one day out, and there's still not a lot of moving and shaking. Overall, Obama and Romney are deadlocked at 49%. Ohio is deadlocked at 49-49. Wisconsin is deadlocked at 49-49. Those two states are the key. If Romney wins OH, with wins in VA and FL, he'll need one of the following states: NH (up 2 and at 50%), CO (up 3 and at 50%), IA (up 1), or NV (down 2). If Romney loses OH, he MUST take Wisconsin or else sweep all the other toss-ups (including what would be considered an upset in NV). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wave316 64 Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just one day out, and there's still not a lot of moving and shaking. Overall, Obama and Romney are deadlocked at 49%. Ohio is deadlocked at 49-49. Wisconsin is deadlocked at 49-49. Those two states are the key. If Romney wins OH, with wins in VA and FL, he'll need one of the following states: NH (up 2 and at 50%), CO (up 3 and at 50%), IA (up 1), or NV (down 2). If Romney loses OH, he MUST take Wisconsin or else sweep all the other toss-ups (including what would be considered an upset in NV). Ohio will be quite interesting ...Hamilton County ,where Cincinatti is I believe went for Bush in 04 then to Obama in 08 ...needs to go to Romney this time..Independants are leaning toward Romney... Who gets the voters to turn out will be key.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvacsas2 15 Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 I believe PA could be as close or closer than Ohio. Romney has about as good a chance there- based on some of the better polls. Mining is more significant to the PA economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2012 I believe PA could be as close or closer than Ohio. Romney has about as good a chance there- based on some of the better polls. Mining is more significant to the PA economy. PA would've gone Romney this time if Tom Corbett weren't driving the state into the ground. Corbett was the Republican governor elected in the anti-Obama referendum of 2010, and he set some kind of national record in making the entire state hate him. To his credit, he made a balanced budget. To his discredit, he cut from places like education, which was the only state-funded program that wasn't in the red, and he did it so badly that most school districts in PA don't even have kindergarten anymore. Of course, in liberal strongholds like Philadelphia County, this is a disastrous proposition. To compound the problems, he didn't close obvious money-hemorrhaging loopholes in PA law, of which there are legion. Plus, Corbett launched the grand jury investigation that netted Sandusky. Take that as you will. Romney will probably lose Philadelphia County by something like a 80-20 margin, where he really needed something in the neighborhood of 65-35 to have a chance. It doesn't matter if the rest of the state separate from Philly would go Romney. Gotta do well in Philadelphia County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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