Election Tracker:

[swvacsas2 15]

Think the key for Romney is the Philly suburbs. The city has been trending pretty bad for a long time. Chester, Delaware, Bucks, and Montgomery are the keys, You need to try to use those counties to break even or at least reduce the loss in Philly. This election is different because of the situation in the mining areas. These have been- along with Philly- the keys to Democratic wins in the state. Westmoreland, Greene, etc. in the SW usually roll up good Democratic margins. Same with Lackawanna, Lizern, Northampton in the NE. If these areas do not go Obama or if Romney breaks even- Obama will have to do as well or better than he did in the Philly suburbs in '08.

[bluefieldRocks 14]

saw this on another website

 

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Time to make my final predictions:

 

With my locks, we are at Obama-237, Romney-235.

 

Here are the final swing states, and final reliable polling data:

 

Colorado (R +3%)

Iowa (R +1%)

Nevada (O +3%)

New Hampshire (O +2%)

Ohio (even)

Virginia (R +2%)

Wisconsin (even)

 

Here are the points for each:

 

Colorado (9)

Iowa (6)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

 

I believe Colorado will go for Romney.

I believe Virginia will go for Romney.

I believe New Hampshire will go for Romney.

I believe Iowa will go for Romney.

I believe Ohio will go for Romney.

 

I believe Wisconsin will go for Obama.

I believe Nevada will go for Obama.

 

My final prediction is: Romney-285, Obama-253.

[hokie07 11]

The money lines in Vegas for today are Romney -250 and Obama +300.

 

Seriously thought about making a little on Romney, but ultimately didn't place a bet.

[swvacsas2 15]

Hate to say but I feel its going to be 291-257 Obama. Romney will pick up 5 states from Obama- IN, NC, Fl, VA, and CO. Can't see him taking Ohio.

[RichlandsAlum 678]

Hate to say but I feel its going to be 291-257 Obama. Romney will pick up 5 states from Obama- IN, NC, Fl, VA, and CO. Can't see him taking Ohio.

 

My son's elementary school conducts a mock election which has been surprisingly accurate with regard to past presidential cycles. For the first time this year, they introduced an "Electoral College" element. Not sure about the methodology employed for the latter. This year's result....

 

Romney won the popular vote 205 to 201.

 

Obama captured the school's "Electoral College" by one vote.

[rebel1 35]

So if Romney were to win the popular vote and Obama the Electoral, who wins? I don't really know a whole lot about the way that works.

[stu_bean 1,058]

So if Romney were to win the popular vote and Obama the Electoral, who wins? I don't really know a whole lot about the way that works.

In all reality the popular vote means nothing in the presidential election.

[RichlandsAlum 678]

In all reality the popular vote means nothing in the presidential election.

 

Actually, it does. But only on a "state by state" basis. (Except for states that choose electors based on congressional district -- Maine and Nebraska currently.)

[RichlandsAlum 678]

So if Romney were to win the popular vote and Obama the Electoral, who wins? I don't really know a whole lot about the way that works.

 

In that scenario, Obama. The President is officially selected by the Electoral College. By casting a vote, we are really voting for a slate of electors who have pledged to support a particular candidate. Those electors will convene in each state capital on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their votes and officially elect the President and Vice President.

 

A little complicated, but that's the gist of it.

[HurricaneWarning 212]

In that scenario, Obama. The President is officially selected by the Electoral College. By casting a vote, we are really voting for a slate of electors who have pledged to support a particular candidate. Those electors will convene in each state capital on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their votes and officially elect the President and Vice President.

 

A little complicated, but that's the gist of it.

 

I`ve always said the electoral college is a joke. If you want people to vote, take the popular vote and crown the president.

[RichlandsAlum 678]

I`ve always said the electoral college is a joke. If you want people to vote, take the popular vote and crown the president.

 

It has its place, IMO. It is designed to preserve the relevance and sovereignty of all states in the election process. Without the Electoral College system, you'd probably never see candidates campaign outside the five or so most populous states (or metropolitan areas, for that matter).

 

Our system has its idiosyncrasies, but it's still highly functional. And keep in mind the precise form of government that we have.....

 

"A Republic, if you can keep it."

[futbolking 766]

i say they have to thumb wrestle, if it's too close to call.....

[HurricaneWarning 212]

It has its place, IMO. It is designed to preserve the relevance and sovereignty of all states in the election process. Without the Electoral College system, you'd probably never see candidates campaign outside the five or so most populous states (or metropolitan areas, for that matter).

 

Our system has its idiosyncrasies, but it's still highly functional. And keep in mind the precise form of government that we have.....

 

"A Republic, if you can keep it."

 

Yeah but sometimes it is hard to see that.

[RichlandsAlum 678]

Personally, I find the "two party" system to be much more maddening.

 

It is not constitutional, yet it forms the entire basis for the organizational structure of our constitutional offices at the federal level. It results in the effective appointment of a vice president (who is always a "heartbeat away" from the presidency) by a single individual. It produces national candidates who are severely flawed and compromised by the time most of the public ever gets to vote for them. And it diverts allegiance away from the national interest, divides the public, and diverts huge sums of money that could be better spent on other activities.

 

Yet we as a public swallow it hook, line, and sinker.

[bhs7695 185]

I was watching CNBC this morning talking about the possible fiscal cliff coming up with the current administration. The markets in the east were still doing fairly well and the NTSE futures were holding steady with a marginal gain. Around 7:05-7:15 a.m. they all started dropping. The Euro to Dollar ratio closed almost $0.70 (in currencies that substantial) and oil a barrel was down over $1.25 (over $2.25 now). All of that in a span of 10-15 min.

 

Why can't a majority of the under age 30 crowd including the minorities in the U.S. not pay attention to the problems that are going on in Europe? Do they really think the U.S. is immune to those kinds of problems of over spending & hand outs?

 

Even the exit polls showed public opinion feels the U.S. is going in the wrong direction, but the current administration stays along with the gridlock in Washington.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

I was watching CNBC this morning talking about the possible fiscal cliff coming up with the current administration. The markets in the east were still doing fairly well and the NTSE futures were holding steady with a marginal gain. Around 7:05-7:15 a.m. they all started dropping. The Euro to Dollar ratio closed almost $0.70 (in currencies that substantial) and oil a barrel was down over $1.25 (over $2.25 now). All of that in a span of 10-15 min.

 

Why can't a majority of the under age 30 crowd including the minorities in the U.S. not pay attention to the problems that are going on in Europe? Do they really think the U.S. is immune to those kinds of problems of over spending & hand outs?

 

Even the exit polls showed public opinion feels the U.S. is going in the wrong direction, but the current administration stays along with the gridlock in Washington.

 

"Substantial" is almost putting it too lightly with a $.70 Euro/Dollar close.

 

There will be a time of reckoning, and no amount of "liking" the president or "hope/change/forward" garbage is going to stave it off. We will learn the hard way.

[swvacsas2 15]

"Why can't a majority of the under age 30 crowd including the minorities in the U.S. not pay attention to the problems that are going on in Europe? Do they really think the U.S. is immune to those kinds of problems of over spending & hand outs?"

 

 

Be hitting the fiscal cliff soon.

 

Its just not under 30's and minorities that did Romney in. In the Midwest Romney did not get a big enough percentage of the blue-collar and lower-middle to middle-middle sector to win. Same happened in parts of VA.

 

Truth of the matter is the countries in Europe in so much trouble- Greece and Italy etc.- do not practice Scandinavian style socialism. They spend money and dodge taxes, etc. You can keep a lot of programs if you adopt the Scandinavian model- 80% tax rates, little defense spending, and so forth. This is the model that a lot of the Obama supporters want. Have a cousin who went Obama and is infatuated with that brand of socialism.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

Truth of the matter is the countries in Europe in so much trouble- Greece and Italy etc.- do not practice Scandinavian style socialism. They spend money and dodge taxes, etc. You can keep a lot of programs if you adopt the Scandinavian model- 80% tax rates, little defense spending, and so forth. This is the model that a lot of the Obama supporters want. Have a cousin who went Obama and is infatuated with that brand of socialism.

 

Those same people don't realize that the U.S. has 320 million people, while Sweden has 10 million. Those same people don't realize that Norway hasn't undertaken the obligation to be a major police force for the world. Those same people don't realize that Denmark has some of the most austere immigration policies in the world. Those same people don't realize that the United States has active blocks of people who will fight these measures tooth and nail and will grind the system down to gridlock. Something about cake, and the having and eating it at the same time.

 

They'll learn. We're headed for something that'll make the Great Depression look like Clinton's era by comparison.

[bhs7695 185]

Also, per capita, I would bet the U.S. likes to spend more personal wealth on big ticket items ($55K SUVs) and properties ($400K four bedroom homes) not to mention how much more available land there is in the U.S. compared to Europe for big ticket items. I still don't believe that most of the U.S. wants 60%-80% tax rates because of the less likelihood of choice for big ticket items of personal preference.

 

Capitalism thrived in this country for over 200 years for a reason.

[Hacker 82]

The markets loathe uncertainty. The whole sequestration gambit was just a convenient move to buy time. Now both sides have to come to a compromise in order to avoid cuts. The markets, based on the last two years, are not sure Congress can get the problem resolved.

[RichlandsAlum 678]

While realclearpolitics.com was pretty close on the outcome in the Electoral College, and their polling averages pointed to a win for Obama, I was surprised by how far some of the exact polls were off. Of course, I'll admit that I wasn't expecting the turnout model from 2008 to repeat itself either.