GMan 3,569 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 NOAA to Eastern US: Beware of coming 'Frankenstorm' Thursday - 10/25/2012, 2:59pm ET http://www.wtop.com/884/3092498/NOAA...g-Frankenstorm This NOAA satellite image taken Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM EDT shows Hurricane Sandy over the Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and moving toward the north. Farther east, Tropical Storm Tony southwest of the Azores has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND) What's the worst case scenario for D.C. area? WASHINGTON (AP) - An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey. Government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday. Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damage. The storm is a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio. The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco. But this is a storm that will affect a far wider area, so people all along the East have to be wary, Cisco said. Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, mostly from the hurricane part, he said, and the other parts of the storm will reach inland from North Carolina northward. Once the hurricane part of the storm hits, "it will get broader. It won't be as intense, but its effects will be spread over a very large area," the National Hurricane Center's chief hurricane specialist, James Franklin, said Thursday. One of the more messy aspects of the expected storm is that it just won't leave. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say. Weather may start clearing in the mid-Atlantic the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the Northeast, Cisco said. "It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," Cisco said Thursday from NOAA's northern storm forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread serious storm." With every hour, meteorologists are getting more confident that this storm is going to be bad and they're able to focus their forecasts more. The New York area could see around 5 inches of rain during the storm, while there could be snow southwest of where it comes inland, Cisco said. That could mean snow in eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and the Shenandoah Mountains, he said. Both private and federal meteorologists are calling this a storm that will likely go down in the history books. "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting," Cisco said. It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn't hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast. "The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. "Yeah, it will be worse." But this is several days in advance, when weather forecasts are usually far less accurate. The National Hurricane Center only predicts five days in advance, and each long-range forecast moves Sandy's track closer to the coast early next week. The latest has the storm just off central New Jersey's shore at 8 a.m. on Tuesday. As forecasts became more focused Thursday, the chance of the storm bypassing much of the coast and coming ashore in Maine faded, Cisco said. The hurricane center's Franklin called it "a big mess for an awful lot of people in the early part of next week." ___ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 It shouldnt snow that much in the general area, the hardest hit spouse should be the norther appie's PA and northern WV. We probably will see some now flurries/showers but nothing to to bad. Will be really cold though, upper 30's low 40's for highs monday/tuesday. Good little taste of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 Dang...if I didn't see the satellite images myself... this would be the perfect halloween prank to pull on everybody...similar to that radio prank done back in the 50's that scared everybody of martians coming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigcotton 40 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 That really wasnt a prank, the was a live adaptaion of orson well's the war of the worlds, rather realistic broadcast back in the day, freaked a lot of peaople out. But anyways, Its going to be a pretty nasty storm. Gonna be hell at work next week, our other call center is in the middle of maryland, just praying they dont lose power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 (edited) I wouldn't count anyone out at this point. Its a hurricane and there's still a lot at play. The European model (most reliable model usually) is now bringing the storm int D.C. The storm then tracks west from there. Looks like accumulating snows through Indiana, Ohio, West Va, Kentucky, and now down into Virginia (including SWVA). Should bring some strong, gusty winds with it of course. But that's if these latest runs were to verify and most likely will change again. Would not take much of a shift to bring more impacts into this region. Possibility exists for it to throw enough moisture back around to enhance the northwest flow/Lake effect, which could bring some rain/snow showers for this region even if it tracks farther north. Very interesting situation though and not much for forecasters to compare it with given there aren't any storms to have been absorbed like this and veered directly west into the coast. Edited October 25, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Account 5,203 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) It shouldnt snow that much in the general area, the hardest hit spouse should be the norther appie's PA and northern WV. We probably will see some now flurries/showers but nothing to to bad. Will be really cold though, upper 30's low 40's for highs monday/tuesday. Good little taste of winter. That is not what the models are suggesting. I'm seeing some...VERY reliable ones...predicting 16-30 inches. Don't shoot the messenger. Edited October 26, 2012 by UVAObserver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is not what the models are suggesting. I'm seeing some...VERY reliable ones...predicting 16-30 inches.Don't shoot the messenger. i remember 36 inches of snow in grundy in 1985...it was actually really late in the season and caused a pretty good sized flood...that, finished off what was left of old Grundy and never was the same again. I know it was 36 inches exactly because thats how tall the back porch was and it was even with the back porch...the cat walked out across it and the dog followed and sunk...i had to dig him out lol...also had to get on the roof and shovel it off after it got to about 2 ft so it wouldn't do damage...i've got pics at my parents house if i can find them i'll post them up...it's odd to see that much snow in your yard. I doubt here in Abingdon we will see anywhere near that, but you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) The GFS model is showing over a foot in the northern WV, 3-6 across much of the rest if the state, and lighter accumulation elsewhere in southern WV/SW VA. Its been back forth in its placements a good bit though. The European model, which has been more consistet, brings a good 6+inch swath across this region and over a foot for the higher elevations. Even if you get just a few inches that's not good at all. There's still too much foliage on the trees and combine that with a wet snow/winds and downed trees/power lines are a great likelyhood. Edited October 26, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 not sure how the "grid" works exactly around here...maybe one of you power company workers we have here might know? But...what are the chances that if another part of the state gets hit hard (like the bay area) and has power issues of it having any effect on people this side of Roanoke? I'd think not much, but I don't know how all that stuff interacts if it were something large scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 Accuweather has the heaviest amount of snowfall right on top of us... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/for-some-sandy-may-bring-first/693516 Check out the snowfall forecast map... Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EH31 2,518 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 not sure how the "grid" works exactly around here...maybe one of you power company workers we have here might know? But...what are the chances that if another part of the state gets hit hard (like the bay area) and has power issues of it having any effect on people this side of Roanoke? I'd think not much, but I don't know how all that stuff interacts if it were something large scale. Most of our power is coming straight from Charleston, WV now. At a meeting we had not long ago they told us that Glen Lyn has been stalled, just used as a back up. The main thing this area would have to worry about is if Charleston-south gets hit. Since we've had that storm in June they've been cutting right a ways constantly. I wouldn't expect any huge power outages for this one, but it wouldn't hurt my feelings. I could use some overtime lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 these storms and the tracks...they have no real clue on this stuff...they can give you a high % of where it might go...but, they are so random it's a crap shoot. I left Charleston SC one time and headed up to Myrtle Beach to miss a storm that was almost on top of Charleston when I left...by the time I got to Myrtle Beach (less than 2 hr drive) it had already come ashore in Myrtle Beach? I was like WTF? I got to my cousins house and they had all gone to the GTE building they worked at for shelter and I had to ride it out at their house...when i got there the tree in the front yard was doubled over lol...last time I tried to dodge one by going North. These things can wobble at the last minute and have drastic changes in the amounts of water and wind they bring to areas even as little as 50 or 60 miles away...so we probably won't know for sure how bad it will be until it hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blufan04 12 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 I've seen one model that is saying nothing for us to around 8 inches in northeastern WV and another one that is saying about 1-2 inches for us to 20+ inches in northeastern WV. Where is this so called euro model found that keeps forecasting us to get dumped on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futbolking 766 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is what I saw from accuweather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker 82 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) GMan, what is your ankle saying? Edited October 26, 2012 by Hacker I can't spell sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 GMan, what is you ankle saying? i think he's in the woods today... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hacker 82 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 i think he's in the woods today... Sounds like me playing golf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) I've seen one model that is saying nothing for us to around 8 inches in northeastern WV and another one that is saying about 1-2 inches for us to 20+ inches in northeastern WV. Where is this so called euro model found that keeps forecasting us to get dumped on? The model is the ECMWF. Usually you won't find graphics that display amounts like snow and such that the public can easily read unless a meteorologist or such puts something up. Link to one site for the model.... http://www.ecmwf.int/ Here's an earlier run of the Euro which the Weather Channel had up displaying snowfall amounts. Edited October 26, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvuraiders 10 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 is a proffessional weather model that is only viewed on pay sites......this storm is going to miss us north...yesterday euro had us in 30 inches of snow...today...hardly nothing...snow will happen but nothing major. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneWarning 212 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 is a proffessional weather model that is only viewed on pay sites......this storm is going to miss us north...yesterday euro had us in 30 inches of snow...today...hardly nothing...snow will happen but nothing major. Thanks for ruining it for us lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like me playing golf. I play Army style golf...left-right-left...I can hit a ball 300+ yards but I have no idea where it's going...last time I went, I took out a Cadillac. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebel1 35 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 I play Army style golf...left-right-left...I can hit a ball 300+ yards but I have no idea where it's going...last time I went, I took out a Cadillac. Lance, the first time I ever went golfing was about 4 years ago and it was at Mtn top. 1st hole teeing off pulled it so bad nearly broke a window in the old mans trailer lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance 228 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 Lance, the first time I ever went golfing was about 4 years ago and it was at Mtn top. 1st hole teeing off pulled it so bad nearly broke a window in the old mans trailer lol. I quit going there after my friend found a rattle snake in their cart...lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) is a proffessional weather model that is only viewed on pay sites......this storm is going to miss us north...yesterday euro had us in 30 inches of snow...today...hardly nothing...snow will happen but nothing major. Bullseye back to central WV again per the 12z euro. Still looks like several inches being highlighted across the higher elevations and northern most areas of SWVA. Again though, I know some snow lovers are hopeful for a big snow but we do not need anything even decent this time of the year. A heavy wet snow would create a lot if problems with tree damage and power outages. So any trends favoring little snow still yet is a good thing. Edited October 26, 2012 by Beamerball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMan 3,569 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 GMan, what is your ankle saying? Actually, nothing hurts on me anymore...thanks, Dr. Brown!!! i think he's in the woods today... I was until it got too hot to sit in the blind... Sounds like me playing golf. Glad I gave up that bad habit...not being in the woods, but golf... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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