Projections/Scenarios for 2016 Playoff Pairings

[Union_Fan 2,155]

I'm guessing AHS would be at minimum, if they win against Marion, a top 3 seed.  I heard there is a possibility that they could move up.  Again,  I'm no stats or ranking guru.  Maybe ask Union_Fan or VHSL Helper.  They seem to have this numbers game down to an art form.

I've not looked at anything other than 2A West. I've thought about doing 1A and 3A West, but 2A is enough work to keep track of. Lol.

 

Maybe next year.

[VHSLhelper 571]

I was thinking the same - 1 & 2 are a handful, and I wanted to see how the new Alignment shook out. I already keep up with the Roanoke area schools, so next year shouldn't be all that hard, but I've not been doing it lately because of the Shen. Valley schools.

[VHSLhelper 571]

I've done the top of 3A West, not going any farther

 

                          now            L                W 

Brookville           244      261-269      274-282

Rustburg            239      261-265      278-282

Abingdon           238      258-263      276-281

Staunton River   230      251-258      270-277

Magna Vista       228      250-254      268-272

Lord Botetourt    222      242-251      261-270

Heritage             202      216-222      229-235

 

 

 L     W

 

261 / 274    Brookville        1 each for Lib/Herit, ECG/Rust 

   2 each for Hbrg/TA, Gret/Nelson, Amh/Appo

 

262 / 278    Rustburg        2 each for Tuns/Bass, Alta/Dan

 

258 / 276    Abingdon

    2 each for Va/Lee, JSB/Union;   1 for Gram/Narz

 

251 / 270    Staunton River

    2 each for TA/Hb, Lib/Herit, Jeff/Brkv;  1 for Rock/Byrd

 

250 / 268    Magna Vista

    2 for Jeff/Brkv;  1 each for Byrd/Rock, Dan/Alta

 

242 / 261    Lord Botetourt      1 for  Rock/Byrd

   2 each for Bass/Tuns, James/Cov, Spot/Bway, Fort/RELee

 

216 / 229    Heritage

    2 each for Ns/Flem, Gret/Nelson;   1 each for  Brkv/Jeff, ECG/Rust

[Union_Fan 2,155]

Abingdon is a whole lot closer to the #1 seed than I would have ever thought they would get after losing to Graham. Go Falcons!

[VHSLhelper 571]

That's because Brook & Rust both have 1 more loss

[1inStripes 932]

This is what makes the other argument invalid. 9 game teams are already factored into the points.

 

I am only saying it isnt truly accurate in showing where a team stands as far as whole points earned goes.  Not until you do the extra step that everyone else does.  Helper does a great job but just looking at the whole numbers works most of the time but not all the time.  When it doesnt work he factors it down to the actual rating by doing the next step in the equation that the VHSL does also to get an actual average.  Whole numbers arent equal to average because of the difference in schedules.

[VHSLhelper 571]

I am only saying it isnt truly accurate in showing where a team stands as far as whole points earned goes.

 Not until you do the extra step that everyone else does.  

Helper does a great job but just looking at the whole numbers works most of the time but not all the time.  When it doesnt work he factors it down to the actual rating by doing the next step in the equation that the VHSL does also to get an actual average.  Whole numbers arent equal to average because of the difference in schedules.

 

Well, I could argue basically every sentence, but It's not worth it. Some ppl. just don't get math/numbers. If you don't like my stuff, don't fool with it.

 

When in doubt, KISS!

[VHSLhelper 571]

Changed my mind...I put too much work into this to let it go

 

"isn't truly accurate" where a team stands - You must be a NASCAR fan - if your guy can't win, it's important to find a spot in time when he was in front or close to it.

If he wrecks,you can say :but he was up to 2nd with 70;laps to go.

Where you stand before you finish means nothing.

The numbers going into the last game are a STARTING point and nothing else.

 

"When it doesnt work he factors it down to the actual rating by doing the next step in the equation that the VHSL does also to get an actual average."

Is that Trumpese - I'm going to say the opposite of the truth? I don't factor it down, do the next step OR get an actual avg. Why do all that work for nothing? VHSL does 50 divisions, I do one multiplication, and we get the same result. My way is faster and simpler.

 

Again, if you want decimals,knock yourself out. I'll be over here telling everyone the matchups while you wait for finals.

[VHSLhelper 571]

4 out of every 3 people have problems with fractions, and decimals are fractions cousins,

[BigO 316]

I've done the top of 3A West, not going any farther

 

now L W

Brookville 244 261-269 274-282

Rustburg 239 261-265 278-282

Abingdon 238 258-263 276-281

Staunton River 230 251-258 270-277

Magna Vista 228 250-254 268-272

Lord Botetourt 222 242-251 261-270

Heritage 202 216-222 229-235

 

 

L W

 

261 / 274 Brookville 1 each for Lib/Herit, ECG/Rust

2 each for Hbrg/TA, Gret/Nelson, Amh/Appo

 

262 / 278 Rustburg 2 each for Tuns/Bass, Alta/Dan

 

258 / 276 Abingdon

2 each for Va/Lee, JSB/Union; 1 for Gram/Narz

 

251 / 270 Staunton River

2 each for TA/Hb, Lib/Herit, Jeff/Brkv; 1 for Rock/Byrd

 

250 / 268 Magna Vista

2 for Jeff/Brkv; 1 each for Byrd/Rock, Dan/Alta

 

242 / 261 Lord Botetourt 1 for Rock/Byrd

2 each for Bass/Tuns, James/Cov, Spot/Bway, Fort/RELee

 

216 / 229 Heritage

2 each for Ns/Flem, Gret/Nelson; 1 each for Brkv/Jeff, ECG/Rust

Just want to make sure I understand this.....if AHS loses then their points will be somewhere between 258-263 depending on other games. And if AHS wins then their points will be somewhere between 276-281, depending on outcome of some other games....is that right? Please be patient with me...this is the first this has mattered for us AHS folks, since I've been here at least. Thanks!

[VHSLhelper 571]

yep .

Ask away - learning it makes things soooo much easier

[Falcon Mania 235]

 

I've done the top of 3A West, not going any farther

 

                          now            L                W 

Brookville           244      261-269      274-282

Rustburg            239      261-265      278-282

Abingdon           238      258-263      276-281

Staunton River   230      251-258      270-277

Magna Vista       228      250-254      268-272

Lord Botetourt    222      242-251      261-270

Heritage             202      216-222      229-235

 

 

 L     W

 

261 / 274    Brookville        1 each for Lib/Herit, ECG/Rust 

   2 each for Hbrg/TA, Gret/Nelson, Amh/Appo

 

262 / 278    Rustburg        2 each for Tuns/Bass, Alta/Dan

 

258 / 276    Abingdon

    2 each for Va/Lee, JSB/Union;   1 for Gram/Narz

 

251 / 270    Staunton River

    2 each for TA/Hb, Lib/Herit, Jeff/Brkv;  1 for Rock/Byrd

 

250 / 268    Magna Vista

    2 for Jeff/Brkv;  1 each for Byrd/Rock, Dan/Alta

 

242 / 261    Lord Botetourt      1 for  Rock/Byrd

   2 each for Bass/Tuns, James/Cov, Spot/Bway, Fort/RELee

 

216 / 229    Heritage

    2 each for Ns/Flem, Gret/Nelson;   1 each for  Brkv/Jeff, ECG/Rust

 

Thank you VHSLhelper.  Very much appreciated that you would take time out of your day to post this for those of us being the only 3A West team around here in the playoff picture.  Makes a lot more sense now.

[Union_Fan 2,155]

That's because Brook & Rust both have 1 more loss

True, but I'm surprised because Abingdon was #7 last year and two 8-2 teams and two 7-3 teams ahead of them as well as two 9-1 teams.. I guess the other 3A West teams' schedules weren't as strong as last year.

[Falcon Mania 235]

True, but I'm surprised because Abingdon was #7 last year and two 8-2 teams and two 7-3 teams ahead of them as well as two 9-1 teams.. I guess the other 3A West teams' schedules weren't as strong as last year.

If you look at Lord Botetourt this year compared to last year.  It appears they just aren't getting the rider points.  Abingdon last year was in that position with not getting alot of rider points.  Realistically Richlands last season would've been Abingdons biggest haul on rider points and we lost to them so that didn't help points wise.  I may be way off though.  

[swva_havok_fan 1,261]

Abingdon also gets 4 points this year that they didn't get last year because of getting 2 points for playing a non district 2A team this year, instead of the 1 point that they got for playing them last year.

 

4 extra points isn't much, but it makes a little bit of a difference, I'm sure.

[Union_Fan 2,155]

If you look at Lord Botetourt this year compared to last year.  It appears they just aren't getting the rider points.  Abingdon last year was in that position with not getting alot of rider points.  Realistically Richlands last season would've been Abingdons biggest haul on rider points and we lost to them so that didn't help points wise.  I may be way off though.  

 

Abingdon also gets 4 points this year that they didn't get last year because of getting 2 points for playing a non district 2A team this year, instead of the 1 point that they got for playing them last year.

 

4 extra points isn't much, but it makes a little bit of a difference, I'm sure.

 

Abingdon's opponents were a combined 39-61 last year. Most likely, those same opponents will finish with a combined 50-50 mark. That's 11 more victories or 22 pts + those 4 extra rider pts you mentioned and that makes 26 more total than last year. That's huge!

 

And further proof that Abingdon can get good seeding by playing 2A teams IF those 2A teams win games.