Left Coast Computer Rankings of all SWVA Teams (1 thru 44)

[Liam McPoyle 1,863]

With half of a season's data, here's how Cal Preps has SWVA's teams ranked. The computer clearly hates Rye Cove. 

EDIT: Montcalm should be ranked at #32 between Wise Central and Lebanon

Rank	School	Division	Rating	Schedule Strength
1	Radford	2A	16.8	-13.3
2	Princeton	AAA	14.1	-9.9
3	Union [Appy/Powell Valley] (Big Stone Gap)	2A	8.6	-11.6
4	Graham (Bluefield)	2A	7.2	-7.8
5	Ridgeview (Clintwood)	2A	4.7	-29.2
6	Monroe [James] (Lindside)	A	2.2	-27.9
7	Pulaski County (Dublin)	3A	-4.1	6
8	Grayson County (Independence)	1A	-4.2	-24.9
9	Bluefield	AA	-5	-0.2
10	Honaker	1A	-7.2	-39.4
11	Narrows	1A	-10.6	-23
12	Wythe [George] (Wytheville)	1A	-12.1	-7.4
13	Galax	1A	-12.7	-8.4
14	Henry [Patrick] (Glade Spring)	1A	-14.7	-32.2
15	Tazewell	2A	-14.9	-11
16	Abingdon	3A	-16.5	-16.3
17	Gate City	2A	-17.4	-20.6
18	Virginia (Bristol)	2A	-17.4	-3.5
19	Lee (Jonesville)	2A	-19.2	-21.7
20	Fort Chiswell (Max Meadows)	1A	-19.4	-32.2
21	Giles (Pearisburg)	1A	-21.9	-7.4
22	Carroll County (Hillsville)	3A	-24	-15.7
23	Grundy	1A	-24	-10.4
24	Holston (Damascus)	1A	-24.3	-32.3
25	Chilhowie	1A	-24.8	-39.9
26	Twin Springs (Nickelsville)	1A	-26.2	-62.7
27	Marion	2A	-26.5	-27.5
28	Rural Retreat	1A	-29.6	-23.4
29	Battle [John S.] (Bristol)	2A	-31.5	-18.3
30	Rye Cove (Clinchport)	1A	-32.1	-56.6
31	Central [Kelly/Pound] (Norton)	2A	-32.2	-17.2
32	Lebanon	2A	-35	-34.7
33	Richlands	2A	-43.3	-15.1
34	Eastside [Coeburn/St. Paul] (Coeburn)	1A	-45	-42.2
35	Burton [John I.] (Norton)	1A	-52.5	-15.3
36	Hurley	1A	-54.1	-48.9
37	Walker [Thomas] (Ewing)	1A	-55.4	-50.4
38	River View (Bradshaw)	A	-57.3	-58.6
39	PikeView (Princeton)	AA	-63.2	-27.3
40	Northwood (Saltville)	1A	-64.6	-45.7
41	Mount View (Welch)	A	-74	-46.7
42	Castlewood	1A	-81.1	-39.6
43	Twin Valley (Pilgrims Knob)	1A	-87.4	-66.3
44	Bland County (Rocky Gap)	1A	-100.1	-55.4

Edited September 28, 2023 by Liam McPoyle
Montcalm was inadvertently omitted.

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,717]

My voting for the top 10 poll looks very similar to Calpreps rankings. 

[Graham32 335]

How does a computer on the west coast have better ranking than most in the area? Insane. 

[Gridiron60 2,555]

Not sure I’d put Grayson above Honaker. They’re good but I don’t see them in Salem. Unless something goes completely off the rails, Honaker will be there in my opinion. Now 2C/2D, who knows at this point. Union & Radford definitely front runners. 

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,717]

I've always been impressed with Calpreps.  I'm a nerd like that and love numbers.  One advantage of Cal preps and one disadvantage.  Advantage- takes the emotion out of it.  My team is Giles.  If I felt Giles, Galax, GW, and Grayson were very close, who am I going to rank the highest?  Also, knowledge gaps.  People on this board in Giles County or Wythe County see a team like Union or Gate City how many times per year?  Very few if any, so much of their voting is going by what others write on the board about the teams.  Same for the folks in Wise County and knowledge about a team 2 hours or more away all he way in West Va in Princeton.  They just don't know much about them.  

The disadvantage though- no knowledge of injuries.  The computer doesn't know that Giles didn't have one of it's best players against Narrows.  The computers don't know about Graham's injuries.  They don't know the kid on the line of scrimmage (who I've heard might be Graham's best lineman) returns tonight and didn't play against Union.  

Good and Bad like anything else I guess.

[sixcat 2,922]

11 minutes ago, Gridiron60 said:

Not sure I’d put Grayson above Honaker. They’re good but I don’t see them in Salem. Unless something goes completely off the rails, Honaker will be there in my opinion. Now 2C/2D, who knows at this point. Union & Radford definitely front runners. 

These rankings are based solely on the numbers generated from the algorithm using strength of schedule already played and how those opponents faired against other common opponents. Grayson is ranked ahead right now because they have a slightly better strength of schedule. But the algorithm clearly thinks Honaker is the better team by how the rating (-4.2 to -7.2) is significantly closer than the strength of schedule numbers (-24.9 to -39.4). 

If you project a match-up on CalPreps, you will see, they indeed favor Honaker over Grayson 31-28 head-to-head. 

[Liam McPoyle 1,863]

It'd be interesting to compare the projection accuracy between CalPreps and SWVA Pick'em participants. 

[Duke2015 451]

4 hours ago, sixcat said:

These rankings are based solely on the numbers generated from the algorithm using strength of schedule already played and how those opponents faired against other common opponents. Grayson is ranked ahead right now because they have a slightly better strength of schedule. But the algorithm clearly thinks Honaker is the better team by how the rating (-4.2 to -7.2) is significantly closer than the strength of schedule numbers (-24.9 to -39.4). 

If you project a match-up on CalPreps, you will see, they indeed favor Honaker over Grayson 31-28 head-to-head. 

Don’t understand why it has Twin Springs above Rye Cove.  Someone mentioned TS opponents have won only 2 games.  I guess the one loss to I believe Honaker is the reason even though it’s a quality loss 

[sixcat 2,922]

11 minutes ago, Duke2015 said:

Don’t understand why it has Twin Springs above Rye Cove.  Someone mentioned TS opponents have won only 2 games.  I guess the one loss to I believe Honaker is the reason even though it’s a quality loss 

Has to be something within the opponents each have played to this point the algorithm values in TS over RC. 

For the record, CalPreps has Rye Cove winning head-to-head 31-28. 

[Wolf1207 239]

Analytics are getting crazy accurate these days.  And it’s really helping me at the sportsbook.  After the disastrous week 1 NFL (which I’ll never bet again) these types of sites get very accurate in a hurry.

[TS Fan 2]

53 minutes ago, Duke2015 said:

Don’t understand why it has Twin Springs above Rye Cove.  Someone mentioned TS opponents have won only 2 games.  I guess the one loss to I believe Honaker is the reason even though it’s a quality loss 

Rye Cove hasn't beat a team with a winning record since 2011.

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,717]

27 minutes ago, Wolf1207 said:

Analytics are getting crazy accurate these days.  And it’s really helping me at the sportsbook.  After the disastrous week 1 NFL (which I’ll never bet again) these types of sites get very accurate in a hurry.

As a whole, Calpreps is very accurate.  Alarmingly accurate.  Sure, it misses some and misses big, but by in large, it's pretty accurate.  Some folks with "pick the singular or outlier" when it misses big to make a point, but they are doing just that most of the time, picking the outlier.  It's incredibly accurate the majority of the time in my opinion, especially after 5 games as it's data points/variables have grown by the thousands which increase the "power" or statistical effect size of the prediction/confidence interval.

[Fairlawncat 252]

1 minute ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

As a whole, Calpreps is very accurate.  Alarmingly accurate.  Sure, it misses some and misses big, but by in large, it's pretty accurate.  Some folks with "pick the singular or outlier" when it misses big to make a point, but they are doing just that most of the time, picking the outlier.  It's incredibly accurate the majority of the time in my opinion, especially after 5 games as it's data points/variables have grown by the thousands which increase the "power" or statistical effect size of the prediction/confidence interval.

I do the Class 1 and 2 pickem on Vapreps.  In Class 1, I have picked with my own opinion on who would win and I'm middle of the pack right now.  In Class 2, I started the whole season with Calpreps to pick the games and have only used Calpreps, and I'm tied for first right now.

[Union_Fan 2,155]

3 minutes ago, Fairlawncat said:

I do the Class 1 and 2 pickem on Vapreps.  In Class 1, I have picked with my own opinion on who would win and I'm middle of the pack right now.  In Class 2, I started the whole season with Calpreps to pick the games and have only used Calpreps, and I'm tied for first right now.

Where would you be if you picked the winners of 2A?

And, where would you be if Calpreps picked 1A for you?

Curious if Calpreps is better than your picks or just better at 2A.

[Fairlawncat 252]

2 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Where would you be if you picked the winners of 2A?

And, where would you be if Calpreps picked 1A for you?

Curious if Calpreps is better than your picks or just better at 2A.

In 1A, I don't know.  I haven't check on who Calpreps picked.  But, for Class 2, I know I would be behind where I am now, because I can come up with at least 5-6 games in the first 5 or so weeks that I was 50/50 on and was leaning to a team opposite of what Calpreps, and I went with Calpreps and they nailed it.  With the close games, Calpreps gets em wrong sometimes, but it seems like they get those 50-50 type games right about 3 out of 4 times. 

[Duke2015 451]

5 hours ago, TS Fan said:

Rye Cove hasn't beat a team with a winning record since 2011.

I just assumed RC playing Honaker so close would’ve given them the advantage but doesn’t matter we’ll see when they play 

[1inStripes 932]

14 hours ago, TS Fan said:

Rye Cove hasn't beat a team with a winning record since 2011.

Hurley was 5-4 last year in the regular season. Did finish .500 after losing to PH in the playoffs. 

[TS Fan 2]

15 minutes ago, 1inStripes said:

Hurley was 5-4 last year in the regular season. Did finish .500 after losing to PH in the playoffs. 

Hurley was a good win and so was JI Burton (5-5).

Rye Cove's defense has been really impressive this year.

[1inStripes 932]

TS has ran the veer very well so far also. I wondered how Dingus would adapt to it going into his SR year but it’s been clean from what I have seen on film. 

[Liam McPoyle 1,863]

CalPreps (current week) vs SWVA Poll Week 6 

The latest SWVA Poll had 23 teams receive votes which are shown in the right column (1-23) . On the left is the CalPreps rankings 1-23 plus any teams ranked in SWVA's poll below 23rd. 

 

 

	CalPreps	SWVA Poll Week 6
1	Radford	Union
2	Princeton	Princeton
3	Union	Radford
4	Graham	Ridgeview
5	Ridgeview	Honaker
6	James Monroe	Graham
7	Pulaski Co	James Monroe
8	Grayson Co	Grayson Co
9	Bluefield	Rye Cove
10	Honaker	Pulaski Co
11	Narrows	Bluefield
12	George Wythe	Montcalm
13	Galax	Narrows
14	Patrick Henry	Gate City
15	Tazewell	George Wythe
16	Abingdon	Patrick Henry
17	Gate City	Galax
18	Virginia High	Chilhowie
19	Lee	Twin Springs
20	Fort Chiswell	Holston
21	Giles	Virginia High
22	Carroll County	Abingdon
23	Grundy	Tazewell
24	Holston
25	Chilhowie
26	Twin Springs
27
28
29
30	Rye Cove
31
32	Montcalm