2D Playoff Picture: Final Week

[Deleted Account 5,203]

I've run the math longhand on the Region 2D playoff race this morning.  I've had it double-checked independently, and everything is correct to the best of my knowledge and belief.

First, we'll look at the SWD. 

Since the playoffs are slotted by District Standings, then Power Points, the picture looks like this:

(1) Graham - 9-0 (4-0) [28.222]

(2) VHS/Richlands Winner

(3) VHS/Richlands Loser

(4) Tazewell - 5-5 (1-3) [18.444]

If the playoffs were slotted by Power Points alone, the picture looks like this:

(1) Graham - 9-0 (4-0) [28.222]

(2) VHS - 9-1 (3-1) [25.5]

(3) Tazewell - 5-5 (1-3) [18.4]

(4) Richlands - 3-6 (2-2) [18.111]

The cake is pretty well baked there.  The margin between Tazewell and Richlands drops to 0.089 if Mount View loses to Greenbrier West, which is going to be a pretty darned good game.  But again, that's not how this works

 

Second, we'll look at the M7.  The District Standings/Power Point issue is determinative here, because here's the breakdown IF all favorites win in Week 11:

(1) Central - 7-3 (4-2) (1-1 against 3 team TB) (W over Union H2H) [22.3]

(2) Union - 7-3 (4-2) (1-1 against 3 team TB) (L to Central H2H) [22.3]

(3) Ridgeview - 7-3 (4-2) (1-1 against 3 team TB) [21.5]

(4) Gate City

 

Note that I said "IF all favorites win".  There are 3 games where there wouldn't be an earth-shattering upset if the projected underdog won:

(1) Castlewood @ Eastside

(2) Patrick Henry @ Grundy

(3) Virginia High @ Richlands

Favorites should be Eastside, Patrick Henry, and Virginia High.  Union vaults Central for #1 based upon Power Points IF the following happens:

(1) Richlands over Virginia High + Patrick Henry over Grundy OR Castlewood over Eastside

(2) Patrick Henry over Grundy AND Castlewood over Eastside

The 2nd is very unlikely to happen.  The 1st is the most likely scenario.  Union needs to be cheering for Richlands and Patrick Henry (tomorrow night).  

 

Should this projection hold...

(SWD #4) Tazewell @ (M7 #1) Central

(M7 #3) Ridgeview @ (SWD #2) Virginia High

(SWD #3) Richlands @ (M7 #2) Union

(M7 #4) Gate City @ (SWD #1) Graham

[Deleted Account 5,203]

For a fun little exercise, here's how Region 2D would look if not for this year's unique format

(1) Graham - 9-0 [28.222]

(2) Virginia High - 9-1 [25.5]

(3) Central - 7-3 [22.3] TB

(4) Union - 7-3 [22.3]

(5) Ridgeview - 7-3 [21.5]

(6) Tazewell - 5-5 [18.4]

(7) Richlands - 3-6 [18.111]

(8) Lee - 4-6 [16.6] (!!!!)

-----------------------------------------

(9) Gate City - 4-6 [16.4]

[Gridiron60 2,555]

I’m not a fan of the way they are doing it. This whole cross bracket stuff is ridiculous to me. I don’t know why they just didn’t do powerpoints for top 8. I think other regions did it that way or at least reseed after round 1. That’s just me, others may disagree. 

[appyvol 23]

1 hour ago, UVAObserver said:

For a fun little exercise, here's how Region 2D would look if not for this year's unique format

(1) Graham - 9-0 [28.222]

(2) Virginia High - 9-1 [25.5]

(3) Central - 7-3 [22.3] TB

(4) Union - 7-3 [22.3]

(5) Ridgeview - 7-3 [21.5]

(6) Tazewell - 5-5 [18.4]

(7) Richlands - 3-6 [18.111]

(8) Lee - 4-6 [16.6] (!!!!)

-----------------------------------------

(9) Gate City - 4-6 [16.4]

I talked to people from Lee who are adamant if they outpoint GC they are in. So idk. 

[FoxTrot 180]

20 minutes ago, Gridiron60 said:

I’m not a fan of the way they are doing it. This whole cross bracket stuff is ridiculous to me. I don’t know why they just didn’t do powerpoints for top 8. I think other regions did it that way or at least reseed after round 1. That’s just me, others may disagree. 

I agree!!  Here is what is crazy...SWD - agreed to go by District Standings for playoffs to determine 1-4.  MTN 7 - agreed to do points for 1-4.  The cross bracket is correct though.  Odd to say the least!

[Deleted Account 5,203]

19 minutes ago, FoxTrot said:

I agree!!  Here is what is crazy...SWD - agreed to go by District Standings for playoffs to determine 1-4.  MTN 7 - agreed to do points for 1-4.  The cross bracket is correct though.  Odd to say the least!

If that's what the M7 agreed, then Lee would be in over Gate City.  Honestly, we're not likely to know until Region 2D formally announces it.

[TaterHater 89]

I could see why VHS might be upset......they have the high probability of one and done in the playoffs,,,,,,but looking at how it will pan out, you won't have two teams playing back to back games.
Going by PPs VHS would play Richlands in last game of regular season then again in the 1st round of playoffs. Instead you get VHS vs Ridgeview, much better game IMO.

I could also see why GC would be pissed since they beat Lee and probably had a much stronger schedule outside of district play.

[BandanaVTDavis4321 1,717]

Just unfathomable that a team like GC and Lee could possibly have the exact same district record, and that decider would go by power points first, instead of the head to head contest.  That would have to be a first in my time.  That would be up there as one of the larger screw jobs in SWVA dating back to when the Beavers one time, I think back in the 60's weren't allowed to get in the WV playoffs when they would have likely won another state title.  It's not like the game was terribly close either.  Gate City beat Lee High by 2 TD's , and they are going to let Lee in based on a power rating, which relies on freaking Rye Cove and East Montgomery or something like that.  Crazy.

But, this isn't an issue either way.  Abingdon will beat the Generals, even though Lee has improved and the future looks better, they aren't taking down the Falcons this year.  Abingdon is rolling.  I think they might beat Christiansburg, if both teams get that far, in that Region Title Game.  C-Burg, the first time beat Abingdon in the final seconds on a 30-35ydish pass I think in the final seconds.  Abingdon is a very good and very well coached football team, especially on offense.

[goose111874 967]

10 minutes ago, GilesDavis4321 said:

Just unfathomable that a team like GC and Lee could possibly have the exact same district record, and that decider would go by power points first, instead of the head to head contest.  That would have to be a first in my time.  That would be up there as one of the larger screw jobs in SWVA dating back to when the Beavers one time, I think back in the 60's weren't allowed to get in the WV playoffs when they would have likely won another state title.  It's not like the game was close either.  Gate City beat Lee High my 2 TD's , and they are going to let Lee in based on a power rating, which relies on freaking Rye Cove and East Montgomery or something like that.  Crazy.

I could be wrong but hasn't power points always been the deciding factor who makes it in

[Union_Fan 2,155]

1 hour ago, UVAObserver said:

If that's what the M7 agreed, then Lee would be in over Gate City.  Honestly, we're not likely to know until Region 2D formally announces it.

And that's why I've been somewhat lackadaisical about keeping up with powerpoints and doing projections this season. Too many rumors and confused people.

[Union_Fan 2,155]

31 minutes ago, goose111874 said:

I could be wrong but hasn't power points always been the deciding factor who makes it in

Prior to Covid it has been.

[Deleted Account 5,203]

1 hour ago, foosballer said:

I could see why VHS might be upset......they have the high probability of one and done in the playoffs,,,,,,but looking at how it will pan out, you won't have two teams playing back to back games.
Going by PPs VHS would play Richlands in last game of regular season then again in the 1st round of playoffs. Instead you get VHS vs Ridgeview, much better game IMO.

I could also see why GC would be pissed since they beat Lee and probably had a much stronger schedule outside of district play.

GC's out-of-conference schedule wasn't spectacular.  They played:

(1) Marion [1-9], 2A (win)

(2) Lebanon [2-8], 2A (win)

(3) Richlands [3-6], 2A (loss)

(4) Radford [7-3], 2A (loss)

Lee played:

(1) Rye Cove [0-10], 1A (win)

(2) J.I. Burton [2-8], 1A (win)

(3) East Montgomery [5-5], 1A (win)

(4) Patrick Henry [8-2], 1A (loss)

The issue is that out-of-conference games against 1A schools produce 2A points for teams in the 2A classification.  Lebanon and JI Burton cancel each other out.  A win over Marion gives 2 more points for a win than Rye Cove, but a loss to Patrick Henry gives 1 more point than a loss to Radford.  Losing to a 3-win team, even if it is Richlands, is a body blow in terms of points.  The fact that East Montgomery went 5-5 feasting on Oreos and Twinkies was the deciding factor.

[goose111874 967]

8 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

GC's out-of-conference schedule wasn't spectacular.  They played:

(1) Marion [1-9], 2A (win)

(2) Lebanon [2-8], 2A (win)

(3) Richlands [3-6], 2A (loss)

(4) Radford [7-3], 2A (loss)

Lee played:

(1) Rye Cove [0-10], 1A (win)

(2) J.I. Burton [2-8], 1A (win)

(3) East Montgomery [5-5], 1A (win)

(4) Patrick Henry [8-2], 1A (loss)

The issue is that out-of-conference games against 1A schools produce 2A points for teams in the 2A classification.  Lebanon and JI Burton cancel each other out.  A win over Marion gives 2 more points for a win than Rye Cove, but a loss to Patrick Henry gives 1 more point than a loss to Radford.  Losing to a 3-win team, even if it is Richlands, is a body blow in terms of points.  The fact that East Montgomery went 5-5 feasting on Oreos and Twinkies was the deciding factor.

Smart on lee's end but won't help in playoffs playing cupcakes

[Counts 156]

17 minutes ago, goose111874 said:

Smart on lee's end but won't help in playoffs playing cupcakes

Lee has been so down the last several years I think scheduling wins to get kids back interested in the program (Rather than just transferring to Union 😉 ) is a Valid move 

[Deleted Account 5,203]

19 minutes ago, goose111874 said:

Smart on lee's end but won't help in playoffs playing cupcakes

In Lee's defense, it's not like either Gate City or Lee have a snowball's chance in Hades of beating Graham in Round 1...

[goose111874 967]

1 minute ago, Counts said:

Lee has been so down the last several years I think scheduling wins to get kids back interested in the program (Rather than just transferring to Union 😉 ) is a Valid move 

Yeah I agree.  I'd rather win a few than go 0-10 with a tough schedule

[goose111874 967]

1 minute ago, UVAObserver said:

In Lee's defense, it's not like either Gate City or Lee have a snowball's chance in Hades of beating Graham in Round 1...

True

[Counts 156]

Power point question help show me where I am getting this wrong.

Union and Central should be a wash for district games Bring it down to each teams OOC games

Central Should get 17 to CBurg (Assuming they beat Pulaski(sp)) 26 from East Side (Win over Castlewood) 18 from Marion (Loss to Graham) and 24-26 from Grundy (Depending on how the PH game goes for them)

Making Central OOC points 85-87

Union should get 20 From Burton, 28 from TW, 16 From Graham and 22-24 from Richlands (Depending on the Richlands/VaHigh Game)

Making Union OOC points 86-88

To me it seems like #1 in the M7 is still up in the air (Again I may just be overlooking something any help is appreciated)

[Counts 156]

4 minutes ago, Counts said:

Power point question help show me where I am getting this wrong.

Union and Central should be a wash for district games Bring it down to each teams OOC games

Central Should get 17 to CBurg (Assuming they beat Pulaski(sp)) 26 from East Side (Win over Castlewood) 18 from Marion (Loss to Graham) and 24-26 from Grundy (Depending on how the PH game goes for them)

Making Central OOC points 85-87

Union should get 20 From Burton, 28 from TW, 16 From Graham and 22-24 from Richlands (Depending on the Richlands/VaHigh Game)

Making Union OOC points 86-88

To me it seems like #1 in the M7 is still up in the air (Again I may just be overlooking something any help is appreciated)

Of course after looking at it again I shorted Central 2 points for Marion and Union 2 for Richlands but I am still hung up on the same point differential

[Counts 156]

Backing out and looking at the the VHSL power points threw this past week

Central and Union will both end up with 219 points IF (CBurg,Graham,Eastside,TW,Grundy and Va High all win)

The game I am looking at is PH and Grundy the winner of that game (Played Tuesday(?)) may decide #1 in the M7

[Union_Fan 2,155]

1 hour ago, Counts said:

Lee has been so down the last several years I think scheduling wins to get kids back interested in the program (Rather than just transferring to Union 😉 ) is a Valid move 

I would much rather then transfer to Union! Haha

As for PPs, there is certainly a chance that Union can outpoint Central, but odds are in the Warriors' favor. As of now, I see a tie at 223.

[TwhscoachT 162]

To think, some Union fans would have chose to play 9 games instead of coming to Ewing.

[Counts 156]

29 minutes ago, TwhscoachT said:

To think, some Union fans would have chose to play 9 games instead of coming to Ewing.

Well TW has provided Union with a good power point haul this season (The Norton Game is the game pulling down Unions avg)

[Counts 156]

41 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

I would much rather then transfer to Union! Haha

As for PPs, there is certainly a chance that Union can outpoint Central, but odds are in the Warriors' favor. As of now, I see a tie at 223.

Is 223 with a Grundy or a PH win? 

[Union_Fan 2,155]

3 minutes ago, Counts said:

Is 223 with a Grundy or a PH win? 

PH, but that's a complete flip of the coin. Also, Eastside over CW.