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2D/1D/1C Seeding Projections/Scenarios


Union_Fan
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There are SO many possible ways the final seedings can go it's mind boggling. There is lots of parity between teams this year, that while not likely, it wouldn't be a huge shocker if many remaining games go either way. And yes, it is still possible for Richlands to make the playoffs.

How I think the final seeding will go. Va High gets the tie over GC. This is also the base that all other scenarios would be created.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Va High 8-2 230 23
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Union 7-3 227 22.7
06.) Lee 5-5 200 20
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

How GC can snag the #2 Seed. GC and Bluefield over Ridgeview.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 282 28.2
02.) Gate City 8-2 248 24.8
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 240 24
04.) Va High 8-2 230 23
05.) Union 7-3 226 22.6
06.) Lee 5-5 199 19.9
07.) Tazewell 6-4 197 19.7
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 182 18.2

How Union can slide into the #3 seed. Richlands over Va High, Lee or Central over GC

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Union 7-3 230 23
04.) Va High 7-3 217 21.7
05.) Lee 6-4 217 21.7
06.) Gate City 6-4 215 21.5
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

How Lee can get the #3 Spot. Lee over GC and Central both. Yea, I know, surprising!

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Lee 7-3 232 23.2
04.) Va High 8-2 228 22.8
05.) Union 7-3 228 22.8
06.) Gate City 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

How Richlands can sneak in at #8. Richlands over Va High. Lee or Grundy with a win over Central. Shown below with Lee over Central.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Gate City 7-3 231 23.1
04.) Union 7-3 229 22.9
05.) Va High 7-3 215 21.5
06.) Lee 6-4 215 21.5
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Richlands 3-7 178 17.8

Also, how Richlands can sneak in at #8 without beating Va High. Central has to lose all their remaining games.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Va High 8-2 226 22.6
05.) Union 7-3 225 22.5
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Richlands 2-8 160 16

 

Any combination of Lee, Central and GC beating each other will not surprise me in the least. Also, wouldn't be entirely shocked if GC beats Ridgeview or Grundy beats Central. Surprised, but not shocked. The highest I could get Tazewell up the poll was #6. They'd need to beat Bluefield, which isn't out of the question, and have a little more help.

For Ridgeview to get the #1 seed, Graham would need to lose to Pulaski Co next week, but I figured that was obvious.

Depending on the exact positioning, we might get some matchups for the first round of the playoffs that will NOT be rematches and could be fun. GC/Va High, Va High/Union, Ridgevew/Tazewell, Graham/Central, Va High/Lee, GC/Tazewell

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2 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

There are SO many possible ways the final seedings can go it's mind boggling. There is lots of parity between teams this year, that while not likely, it wouldn't be a huge shocker if many remaining games go either way. And yes, it is still possible for Richlands to make the playoffs.

How I think the final seeding will go. Va High gets the tie over GC. This is also the base that all other scenarios would be created.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Va High 8-2 230 23
04.) Gate City 7-3 230 23
05.) Union 7-3 227 22.7
06.) Lee 5-5 200 20
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

How GC can snag the #2 Seed. GC and Bluefield over Ridgeview.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 282 28.2
02.) Gate City 8-2 248 24.8
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 240 24
04.) Va High 8-2 230 23
05.) Union 7-3 226 22.6
06.) Lee 5-5 199 19.9
07.) Tazewell 6-4 197 19.7
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 182 18.2

How Union can slide into the #3 seed. Richlands over Va High, Lee or Central over GC

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Union 7-3 230 23
04.) Va High 7-3 217 21.7
05.) Lee 6-4 217 21.7
06.) Gate City 6-4 215 21.5
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

How Lee can get the #3 Spot. Lee over GC and Central both. Yea, I know, surprising!

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Lee 7-3 232 23.2
04.) Va High 8-2 228 22.8
05.) Union 7-3 228 22.8
06.) Gate City 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

How Richlands can sneak in at #8. Richlands over Va High. Lee or Grundy with a win over Central. Shown below with Lee over Central.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Gate City 7-3 231 23.1
04.) Union 7-3 229 22.9
05.) Va High 7-3 215 21.5
06.) Lee 6-4 215 21.5
07.) Tazewell 6-4 196 19.6
08.) Richlands 3-7 178 17.8

Also, how Richlands can sneak in at #8 without beating Va High. Central has to lose all their remaining games.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 280 28
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Va High 8-2 226 22.6
05.) Union 7-3 225 22.5
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Richlands 2-8 160 16

 

Any combination of Lee, Central and GC beating each other will not surprise me in the least. Also, wouldn't be entirely shocked if GC beats Ridgeview or Grundy beats Central. Surprised, but not shocked. The highest I could get Tazewell up the poll was #6. They'd need to beat Bluefield, which isn't out of the question, and have a little more help.

For Ridgeview to get the #1 seed, Graham would need to lose to Pulaski Co next week, but I figured that was obvious.

Depending on the exact positioning, we might get some matchups for the first round of the playoffs that will NOT be rematches and could be fun. GC/Va High, Va High/Union, Ridgevew/Tazewell, Graham/Central, Va High/Lee, GC/Tazewell

What happens if Tazewell finishes 7-3? They should be favored in the remainder of their games.

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4 minutes ago, Gfan said:

What happens if Tazewell finishes 7-3? They should be favored in the remainder of their games.

Almost nothing. They're an oddity. I could only get them as high as 6th seed no matter what scenarios I put in. The one exception was Union losing to both Central and Abingdon combined with Central losing to GC.

Tazewell could finish at 7-3 and still be as low as #7th. I look for them to be 6th if they beat Bluefield, which I consider a toss-up game. There just wasn't much movement for them available.

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The lower end of 1D is all over the place, so I'm only going to list 1-4. Patrick Henry is pretty much a lock for #1, but 2-4 are still in play.

Rye Cove over JI Burton.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Rye Cove 8-1 185 20.55556
03.) Grundy 5-4 178 19.77778
04.) Lebanon 7-3 191 19.1

 

Rye Cove over Burton and Grundy over Central. Grundy's fate is in their hands

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 219 21.9
02.) Grundy 6-3 193 21.44444
03.) Rye Cove 8-1 185 20.55556
04.) Lebanon 7-3 191 19.1

Burton over Rye Cove and Grundy over Central

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 219 21.9
02.) Grundy 6-3 195 21.66667
03.) Lebanon 7-3 191 19.1
04.) Rye Cove 7-2 169 18.77778

Burton over Rye Cove and Central over Grundy

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Grundy 5-4 180 20
03.) Lebanon 7-3 191 19.1
04.) Rye Cove 7-2 169 18.77778
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  • Union_Fan changed the title to 2D/1D/1C Seeding Projections/Scenarios

Looks like Galax has a lock on the #1 seed unless they lose to both George Wythe and Grayson Co

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 8-2 232 23.2
02.) Grayson Co 8-2 194 19.4
03.) Narrows 8-1 174 19.33333
04.) George Wythe 6-4 193 19.3

GW over Galax

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 7-3 215 21.5
02.) George Wythe 7-3 211 21.1
03.) Grayson Co 8-2 194 19.4
04.) Narrows 8-1 174 19.33333

Grayson over Galax

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 7-3 213 21.3
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 212 21.2
03.) George Wythe 6-4 194 19.4
04.) Narrows 8-1 174 19.33333

Both Grayson and GW over Galax

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) George Wythe 7-3 211 21.1
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 211 21.1
03.) Galax 6-4 196 19.6
04.) Narrows 8-1 174 19.33333

Grayson Co finishes 9-1

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 228 22.8
02.) Galax 7-3 212 21.2
03.) Narrows 8-1 174 19.33333
04.) George Wythe 5-5 174 17.4
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34 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Almost nothing. They're an oddity. I could only get them as high as 6th seed no matter what scenarios I put in. The one exception was Union losing to both Central and Abingdon combined with Central losing to GC.

Tazewell could finish at 7-3 and still be as low as #7th. I look for them to be 6th if they beat Bluefield, which I consider a toss-up game. There just wasn't much movement for them available.

Usually our math is fairly close, but I'm seeing the rider points shake out quite differently for some reason.  Would you help me reconcile that so I can give accurate information tonight?

 

As I see it, Tazewell needs help to get above the #6 line.  A loss tonight almost certainly entrenches them in 6th, with a small chance of dropping to 7th.  I have Lee finishing at 5-5 (L - GC; L - Central; W - JSB; L - Abingdon) and Central finishing at 4-6 (L - Union; W - Lee; L - GC; L - Grundy).  Lee or Central would need to score some "upsets".

 

Since my earlier projection thread was deleted, which wiped away my mathematical calculations, here's what I have in the #3-#6 range if my "favorites" hold:

(3) Gate City [7-3]: 226 (22.6)

(4) Virginia [8-2]: 225 (22.5)

(5) Union [7-3]: 225 (22.5)

(6) Tazewell [7-3]: 218 (21.8)

 

There's a lot more chaos.  It would be extremely unlikely for Tazewell to drop either of their last 2 (Marion, Fort Chiswell).  The only semi-realistic chance Virginia has of losing is Richlands.  Gate City's and Union's schedules are full of games that have the potential to swing either way, especially Union.

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24 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

 

Since my earlier projection thread was deleted

Wasn’t that the thread where someone mentioned SWD would probably end in a 3 way tie? 
Some of us never thought that but I think a few thought it was a real possibility. 
 

Why was it deleted? I noticed it was gone. I don’t remember any inappropriate posts. 

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12 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

Usually our math is fairly close, but I'm seeing the rider points shake out quite differently for some reason.  Would you help me reconcile that so I can give accurate information tonight?

 

As I see it, Tazewell needs help to get above the #6 line.  A loss tonight almost certainly entrenches them in 6th, with a small chance of dropping to 7th.  I have Lee finishing at 5-5 (L - GC; L - Central; W - JSB; L - Abingdon) and Central finishing at 4-6 (L - Union; W - Lee; L - GC; L - Grundy).  Lee or Central would need to score some "upsets".

 

Since my earlier projection thread was deleted, which wiped away my mathematical calculations, here's what I have in the #3-#6 range if my "favorites" hold:

(3) Gate City [7-3]: 226 (22.6)

(4) Virginia [8-2]: 225 (22.5)

(5) Union [7-3]: 225 (22.5)

(6) Tazewell [7-3]: 218 (21.8)

 

There's a lot more chaos.  It would be extremely unlikely for Tazewell to drop either of their last 2 (Marion, Fort Chiswell).  The only semi-realistic chance Virginia has of losing is Richlands.  Gate City's and Union's schedules are full of games that have the potential to swing either way, especially Union.

Did you remember to give all the Class 2 teams Class 2 points for their wins over the Class 1 schools? That looks to be the difference.

Under your scenario of Lee and Central...

GC - 8 pts for Richlands, 16 for Radford, 30 for Abingdon, 20 for Marion, 32 for Union, 32 for Lebanon, 28 for Lee, 20 for Battle, 26 for Central and 16 for Ridgeview. Total = 228
Va High - 13 for Tazewell, 20 for Battle, 34 for PH, 26 for Central, 32 for Lebanon, 28 for Honaker, 16 for Graham, 18 for Chilhowie, 20 for Marion and 22 for Richlands. Total = 229
Union - 28 for Lee, 22 for Richlands, 30 for Burton, 16 for Graham, 13 for GC, 26 for TW, 16 for Ridgeview, 26 for Central, 30 for Abingdon, and 20 for Battle. Total = 229
Tazewell - 34 for Va High, 16 for Graham, 11 for Colonial Heights, 20 for Battle, 14 for Riverheads, 30 for Grundy, 22 for Richlands, 22 for Bluefield, 20 for Marion and 22 for Ft Chiswell. Total = 211

We may be differing on Colonial Heights and Bluefield too. I'm not giving either another win. CH just because I know nothing about their remaining teams.

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1 hour ago, Union_Fan said:

Did you remember to give all the Class 2 teams Class 2 points for their wins over the Class 1 schools? That looks to be the difference.

Under your scenario of Lee and Central...

GC - 8 pts for Richlands, 16 for Radford, 30 for Abingdon, 20 for Marion, 32 for Union, 32 for Lebanon, 28 for Lee, 20 for Battle, 26 for Central and 16 for Ridgeview. Total = 228
Va High - 13 for Tazewell, 20 for Battle, 34 for PH, 26 for Central, 32 for Lebanon, 28 for Honaker, 16 for Graham, 18 for Chilhowie, 20 for Marion and 22 for Richlands. Total = 229
Union - 28 for Lee, 22 for Richlands, 30 for Burton, 16 for Graham, 13 for GC, 26 for TW, 16 for Ridgeview, 26 for Central, 30 for Abingdon, and 20 for Battle. Total = 229
Tazewell - 34 for Va High, 16 for Graham, 11 for Colonial Heights, 20 for Battle, 14 for Riverheads, 30 for Grundy, 22 for Richlands, 22 for Bluefield, 20 for Marion and 22 for Ft Chiswell. Total = 211

We may be differing on Colonial Heights and Bluefield too. I'm not giving either another win. CH just because I know nothing about their remaining teams.

I think it's mainly a difference of rider points between us.  I'm a little more optimistic for Tazewell's and more pessimistic for the other 3.

I have Fort Chiswell going 3-7, not 2-8 (I think they're better than Honaker).

I have Bluefield going 3-7, not 2-8 (I think they're slight favorites over Oak Hill).

I have Riverheads finishing 9-1, not 8-2 (I'd favor them over Wilson Memorial and Stuarts Draft).

I have Colonial Heights going 5-5, not 3-7 (I have them going 2-1 between Meadowbrook, Thomas Jefferson, and Petersburg, all of which slightly favor CH).  

That's 7 points, which would bring Tazewell up to the 218 (21.8) that I had.  

 

As for others:

When I add your math, I get 227 for Union, not 229 (28 + 22 + 30 + 16 + 13 + 26 + 16 + 26 + 30 + 20 = 227)

VHS is correct at 229 (13 + 20 + 34 + 26 + 32 + 28 + 16 + 18 + 20 + 22 = 229)

I think Lebanon goes 6-4, not 7-3 (I think they'll split Holston/Rural Retreat).  That puts GC at 226 (22.6), and would drop VHS to 227 (22.7).

I think Thomas Walker goes 3-7, not 4-6 (Ls to Twin Springs and J.I. Burton).  That puts Union at 225 (22.5).  

 

I think I just straight up goofed by 2 points on Virginia, but everything else checks out.  My predictions would then be:

(3) Virginia [8-2]: 227 (22.7)

(4) GC [7-3]: 226 (22.6)

(5) Union: [7-3]: 225 (22.5)

(6) Tazewell: [7-3]: 218 (21.8)

 

If it broke like that, an individual game could be enough to flip this seeding entirely.  For example, Richlands beating VHS nets VHS 9 points instead of 22, which by itself would result in:

(3) GC [7-3]: 227 (22.7)

(4) Union [7-3]: 227 (22.7)

(5) Tazewell [7-3]: 218 (21.8)

(6) Virginia [7-3]: 214 (21.4)

 

TL;DR: Rider points still makes this really wild to project just yet.

 

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7 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

I think it's mainly a difference of rider points between us.  I'm a little more optimistic for Tazewell's and more pessimistic for the other 3.

I have Fort Chiswell going 3-7, not 2-8 (I think they're better than Honaker).

I have Bluefield going 3-7, not 2-8 (I think they're slight favorites over Oak Hill).

I have Riverheads finishing 9-1, not 8-2 (I'd favor them over Wilson Memorial and Stuarts Draft).

I have Colonial Heights going 5-5, not 3-7 (I have them going 2-1 between Meadowbrook, Thomas Jefferson, and Petersburg, all of which slightly favor CH).  

That's 7 points, which would bring Tazewell up to the 218 (21.8) that I had.  

 

As for others:

When I add your math, I get 227 for Union, not 229 (28 + 22 + 30 + 16 + 13 + 26 + 16 + 26 + 30 + 20 = 227)

VHS is correct at 229 (13 + 20 + 34 + 26 + 32 + 28 + 16 + 18 + 20 + 22 = 229)

I think Lebanon goes 6-4, not 7-3 (I think they'll split Holston/Rural Retreat).  That puts GC at 226 (22.6), and would drop VHS to 227 (22.7).

I think Thomas Walker goes 3-7, not 4-6 (Ls to Twin Springs and J.I. Burton).  That puts Union at 225 (22.5).  

 

I think I just straight up goofed by 2 points on Virginia, but everything else checks out.  My predictions would then be:

 

(3) VHS [8-2]: 227 (22.7)

(4) GC [7-3]: 226 (22.6)

(5) Union: [7-3]: 225 (22.5)

(6) Tazewell: [7-3]: 218 (21.8)

 

TL;DR: Rider points still makes this really wild to project just yet.

 

229 for Union was a typo on my part. Riverheads didn't have Westmoreland on the original master schedule, I hadn't updated theirs since, so that would give them 9 wins.

TW/TS and FC/Hon were basically coin flips for me.

At most I would give CH a win over Meadowbrook, but I truly have no clue about those teams.

As for Lebanon, I think they are really coming around, so I gave them both wins.

And this gets back to Tazewell being in a "hole." 211 or 218, they're still 6th. Very weird to change that many points and not make a difference up or down. Definitely a unique year!

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41 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

229 for Union was a typo on my part. Riverheads didn't have Westmoreland on the original master schedule, I hadn't updated theirs since, so that would give them 9 wins.

TW/TS and FC/Hon were basically coin flips for me.

At most I would give CH a win over Meadowbrook, but I truly have no clue about those teams.

As for Lebanon, I think they are really coming around, so I gave them both wins.

And this gets back to Tazewell being in a "hole." 211 or 218, they're still 6th. Very weird to change that many points and not make a difference up or down. Definitely a unique year!

I'm perfectly content with 6th if VHS is 3rd.  :)

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Top 8 2D

I believe my numbers are correct with remaining games. Is Crockett tn, 3/4A for va? 

Graham  18 +8 18+10 18+4 18+10 16+10+2 16+10+2 18+12 22+8     TOTAL P.P.R.
8W-0L W VS BLUEFL W VS TAZ W VS RICH W VS UN W VS GLX W VS GW W VS VHS W VS PUL.CO VS BBURG VS MAR 220  
  26 28 22 28 28 28 30 30       27.5
Ridgeview  16+8+2 16+10+2 18+6 18+10 18+4 18+10 18+2 20+8        
 8W-0L W VS JIB W VS GRUN W VS CENT W VS LEE W VS RICH W VS UN VS JSB VS ABIN VS BLUFLD VS G.C. 204  
  26 28 24 28 22 28 20 28       25.5
Gate City   6+2 6+8 20+8 18+2 18+10 16+10+2 18+10 18+2        
6W-2L L VS RICH L VS RADF W VS ABIN W VS MAR W VS UN W VS LEB VS LEE VS JSB VS CENT VS R.V. 174  
  8 14 28 20 28 28 28 20       22
Va High 6+5 18+2 16+10+2 18+6 16+10+2 16+10+2  6+8 16+2        
 6W-2L L VS TAZ W VS JSB W VS PH W VS CENT W VS LEB W VS HON VS GRA VS CHIL VS MAR VS RICH 171  
  11 20 28 24 28 28 14 18       21.4
Union 18+10 18+4 16+8+2 6+8 6+6 16+6+2 6+8 18+6        
 5W-3L W VS LEE W VS RICH W VS JIB L VS GRA L VS GC W VS TW L VS R.V. VS CENT VS ABIN VS JSB 164  
  28 22 26 14 12 24 14 24       20.5
Lee  6+5 16+2 16+10+2 6+8 16+12+2 16+8+2 6+6 18+6        
5W-3L L VS UNION W VS EASTSI W VS PH L VS R.V. W VS COVE W VS JIB VS G.C. VS CENT VS JSB VS ABIN 163  
  11 18 28 14 30 26 12 24       20.375
Tazewell  16+12 6+8 8+4 18+2 4+5+2 16+10+2 18+4 6+4 18+2      
5W-4L W VS VH L VS GRA L VS C. H. W VS JSB L VS R.H. W VS GRU W VS RICH VS BLUFLD VS MAR VS FORT 165  
  28 14 12 20 11 28 22 10 20     18.66
Central-Wise  16+2 18+2 6+8 6+6 8+4 18+2 6+5 6+5        
3W-5L W VS EASTSI W VS MAR L VS R.V. L VS VHS L VS ABIN W VS JSB VS UN VS LEE VS G.C. VS GRUN 118  
  18 20 14 12 12 20 11 11       14.875

Richlands 2-6. W VS GC & MAR 30 & 20

L VS UN 11, GRA 14, AB 12, BLF 10, RV 14, TAZ 9

PPR 15.25.   With D.CROC & VHS

120 TOTAL

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Last night's games get us a little closer to locking down seeding, and a tightening in the race for #3 seed. Lebanon, TW and Burton all have roles to play in the 2D race.

Burton winning out, TW over TS, Central over Grundy and Lebanon over RR. Va High and Tazewell would win their respective ties.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Union 7-3 229 22.9
04.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Va High 8-2 228 22.8
06.) Lee 5-5 200 20
06.) Tazewell 6-4 200 20
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

 

Rye Cove over Burton, TS over TW and Lebanon over RRVa High and Tazewell would win their respective ties.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 272 27.2
03.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Va High 8-2 228 22.8
05.) Union 7-3 225 22.5
06.) Lee 5-5 200 20
07.) Tazewell 6-4 200 20
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 183 18.3

 

I did not factor in the Grundy/Central game because it will only come in to play if Central also loses to Lee or Richlands upsets Va High. GC can lock in the #3 seed with a win over Ridgeview, and can even get the #2 seed with that win and a Ridgeview loss to Bluefield.

 

 

 

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For 1D, still a pretty big mess from 2-8. Grundy does control their own fate for the #2 seed. Beat Central and they have it.

Grundy over Central, TS over TW and Rye Cove over Burton.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 219 21.9
02.) Grundy 6-3 192 21.33333
03.) Rye Cove 8-1 185 20.55556
04.) Lebanon 6-4 175 17.5
05.) Hurley 5-4 157 17.44444
06.) Rural Retreat 5-4 152 16.88889
07.) Holston 6-4 168 16.8
08.) Twin Springs 5-4 148 16.44444

 

RC over Burton, Central over Grundy and TW over TS

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Rye Cove 8-1 185 20.55556
03.) Grundy 5-4 177 19.66667
04.) Hurley 5-4 158 17.55556
05.) Lebanon 6-4 175 17.5
06.) Rural Retreat 5-4 152 16.88889
07.) Holston 6-4 166 16.6
08.) JI Burton 5-5 161 16.1

 

Burton over RC, Central over Grundy, RR over Lebanon and TW over TS

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Grundy 5-4 179 19.88889
03.) Rye Cove 7-2 169 18.77778
04.) Rural Retreat 6-3 168 18.66667
05.) JI Burton 6-4 179 17.9
06.) Hurley 5-4 157 17.44444
07.) Holston 6-4 165 16.5
08.) Lebanon 5-5 159 15.9

Burton over RC, Central over Grundy, RR over Lebanon and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Grundy 5-4 179 19.88889
03.) Rye Cove 7-2 169 18.77778
04.) Rural Retreat 6-3 168 18.66667
05.) JI Burton 6-4 179 17.9
06.) Hurley 5-4 155 17.22222
07.) Holston 6-4 167 16.7
08.) Twin Springs 5-4 148 16.44444
09.) Lebanon 5-5 159 15.9

Burton over RC, Central over Grundy, Lebanon over RR

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 8-2 217 21.7
02.) Grundy 5-4 179 19.88889
03.) Rye Cove 7-2 169 18.77778
04.) JI Burton 6-4 179 17.9
05.) Lebanon 6-4 175 17.5
06.) Hurley 5-4 155 17.22222
07.) Rural Retreat 5-4 152 16.88889
08.) Holston 6-4 168 16.8

 

Thomas Walker appears to be eliminated barring a win over Burton or a lot of help from other teams. Twin Springs has to get a least one more win and a little help to get in. Burton faces the difference between the possibility of a #4 spot and hosting a first round playoff game, or possibly missing out altogether in their game with RC. Several very important games left for 1D.

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1C pretty much comes down to Grayson Co.

Galax and GW over Grayson.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 6-3 198 22
02.) George Wythe 6-3 193 21.44444
03.) Narrows 8-1 175 19.44444
04.) Grayson Co 8-2 192 19.2
05.) Giles 3-5 131 16.375
06.) Fort Chiswell 3-7 147 14.7
07.) Parry McCluer 4-6 147 14.7
08.) Covington 3-7 146 14.6

Galax over Grayson, Grayson over GW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 6-3 199 22.11111
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 208 20.8
03.) Narrows 8-1 175 19.44444
04.) George Wythe 5-4 174 19.33333
05.) Giles 3-5 131 16.375
06.) Covington 3-7 147 14.7
07.) Fort Chiswell 3-7 147 14.7
08.) Parry McCluer 4-6 147 14.7

GW over Grayson, Grayson over Galax

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) George Wythe 6-3 193 21.44444
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 208 20.8
03.) Galax 5-4 179 19.88889
04.) Narrows 8-1 175 19.44444
05.) Giles 3-5 131 16.375
06.) Covington 3-7 147 14.7
07.) Fort Chiswell 3-7 147 14.7
08.) Parry McCluer 4-6 147 14.7

Grayson over GW and Galax

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 224 22.4
02.) Galax 5-4 179 19.88889
03.) Narrows 8-1 175 19.44444
04.) George Wythe 5-4 173 19.22222
05.) Giles 3-5 131 16.375
06.) Covington 3-7 148 14.8
07.) Fort Chiswell 3-7 147 14.7
08.) Parry McCluer 4-6 147 14.7
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2D still Graham,  RV, Gate City,  VHS, Union,  Lee,  Taz, Rich. 5th separated by mm but could be decided by rider points, same opponents next 2 weeks.  2-3 head to head could change. 

 

Central, marion, and JSB appear to be done. With the remaining games on their respective schedules its probably not going to change.  Taz and Richlands are pretty well stuck, but 3-6 can still move up or down. Crazy 

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3 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

2D still Graham,  RV, Gate City,  VHS, Union,  Lee,  Taz, Rich. 5th separated by mm but could be decided by rider points, same opponents next 2 weeks.  2-3 head to head could change. 

 

Central, marion, and JSB appear to be done. With the remaining games on their respective schedules its probably not going to change.  Taz and Richlands are pretty well stuck, but 3-6 can still move up or down. Crazy 

What a crazy playoff system that this year’s Richlands team makes the cut 😂. There’s definitely an argument to be made for going down to 6 teams 😂! Kudos to Dylan Brown, that kid has carried this team back into the playoffs it seems. Heck of an athlete. 

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8 minutes ago, Gridiron60 said:

@Hokie Bound this thread might be useful in looking at playoff scenarios. 

It defitely is Gridiron60. Just wondering what the current points looked like after last night. A lot of work has been put in to this thread and I for one appreciate it. With PH losing to Hoanaker it would be interesting to see how 1D currently looks. Take care Gridiron60. 

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