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2D/1D/1C Seeding Projections/Scenarios


Union_Fan
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2 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

Va High needs Lebanon to win along with a lose by Burton to TW in the above mentioned games, or a Lebanon loss along with Burton and TW to get 4th. I don't see a viable path to 3rd for Va High.

So without this scenario, we'd be looking at the #5 seed and going to either GC or Union?

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43 minutes ago, V-Cats said:

So without this scenario, we'd be looking at the #5 seed and going to either GC or Union?

A good possibility, but there's no telling what's going to happen these last 2 weeks. A LOT of tossup games.

And that's predicted on Union beating Abingdon and GC beating Central. Neither of those are guaranteed.

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55 minutes ago, Duke2015 said:

I guess there is a way then lol 

As crazy as this year has been, definitely!

Would have never thought Ridgeview had a prayer of catching up to Graham last week. Then, Auburn calls it a season. Wild year!

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4 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

As crazy as this year has been, definitely!

Would have never thought Ridgeview had a prayer of catching up to Graham last week. Then, Auburn calls it a season. Wild year!

How exactly does Auburn affect Graham? I know there has to be a good reason but I can't seem to see it

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3 minutes ago, Hokiebird7 said:

How exactly does Auburn affect Graham? I know there has to be a good reason but I can't seem to see it

Graham defeated GW and Galax. Both were set to play Auburn and win(99 times out of 100 anyways).

Since Graham would get 2pts for each win that GW and Galax have, there are now 2 games(wins) that won't happen. So, 2 less wins in Graham's PowerPoint column now.

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2 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Graham defeated GW and Galax. Both were set to play Auburn and win(99 times out of 100 anyways).

Since Graham would get 2pts for each win that GW and Galax have, there are now 2 games(wins) that won't happen. So, 2 less wins in Graham's PowerPoint column now.

Geez I never thought of that...thanks

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Just now, UVAObserver said:

There's a plausible path where both Graham and Ridgeview end up with 276. 

(1) Virginia beats Richlands.

(2) GW beats Grayson.

(3) Galax beats West Stokes.

(4) Galax beats Grayson.

(5) Union beats Abingdon.

(6) J.I. Burton beats Rye Cove.

(7)  Ridgeview beats Bluefield.

 

What then?

What a mess! What happens if Galax and/or GW beats Grayson?

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3 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

There's a plausible path where both Graham and Ridgeview end up with 276. 

(1) Virginia beats Richlands.

(2) GW beats Grayson.

(3) Galax beats West Stokes.

(4) Galax beats Grayson.

(5) Union beats Abingdon.

(6) J.I. Burton beats Rye Cove.

(7)  Ridgeview beats Bluefield.

 

What then?

I think Graham would win the following tiebreaker:

(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. 

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On 10/24/2022 at 10:48 AM, Smashmouth said:

Graham 8-0                          Ridgeview  8-0        
 BLUEFIELD    18 +8    26    JI BURTON    16+8+2    26
TAZEWELL    18+10    28      GRUNDY    16+10+2    28
  RICHLAND    18+4    22            CENTRAL    18+6    24
     UNION    18+10    28                         LEE    18+10    28
     GALAX    16+8+2    26           RICHLANDS    18+4    22
G.WYTHE    16+10+2    28           UNION    18+10    28
      VHS    18+12    30                    JSBATTLE    18+2    20
   PULASKI     22 +8  30             ABINGDON    20+8    28
BLACKSBURG                        BLUEFIELD        
MARION                                   GATECITY        
                           27.5                                             25.5
Looks like it may very well be possible with rider points for RV to be #1

Fixed it,  I think

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17 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

I think Graham would win the following tiebreaker:

(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules. 

Rv played Grundy who has a 9 game schedule for the same reason so what is the next level tiebreaker 

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30 minutes ago, UVAObserver said:

There's a plausible path where both Graham and Ridgeview end up with 276. 

(1) Virginia beats Richlands.

(2) GW beats Grayson.

(3) Galax beats West Stokes.

(4) Galax beats Grayson.

(5) Union beats Abingdon.

(6) J.I. Burton beats Rye Cove.

(7)  Ridgeview beats Bluefield.

 

What then?

Probably something stupid like a coin toss 

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15 minutes ago, Counts said:

Rv played Grundy who has a 9 game schedule for the same reason so what is the next level tiebreaker 

I'm sure if it would matter because Graham has 2 teams with a 9 game (or less) schedule or not.

But here are all the tiebreakers.

(a) The Rating Scale-Considering all regular season games played against public and non-public Virginia schools and scheduled in accordance with the provisions of 68-4-6.

(b) The winner of any games between the two tied teams if only the tied teams are involved. If more than two teams tied, and one of the tied teams beat all other tied teams, that team shall advance.

(c) The team with the better record against all common opponents.

(d) A team that played an opponent with an effective nine (9) game schedule (non-recognized opponent, i.e., home school or out-of-state non-public school, or inability to schedule/play a 10th game) shall be seeded ahead of a school whose opponents play 10 game schedules.

(e) Schools that played an opponent with nine-game schedules shall be seeded ahead of opponents who played 10-game schedules.

(f) The team with the highest winning percentage against rating scale recognized opponents.

(g) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's opponents.

(h) The team with the higher average rating of all of each team's VHSL public and VHSL non-public school opponents

(i) The regional chairman, or his/her alternate if his/her school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative.

(j) The group chairman or vice chairman if the chairman's school is involved, shall draw by lot to determine the playoff representative. Should both the group chair and vice chair be involved in the tie the group secretary would oversee the process.

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2 hours ago, Hokiebird7 said:

Cause it's the same joke every year....sorry your beloved blues have won 2/8 games...but do you honestly think a 2-6 team DESERVES a reward? I'm sure you do but thought I'd ask anyway

Wow. Thanks for that. 

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The Central/Grundy game is irrelevant to everyone but Central and Richlands. Ridgeview will have the same points regardless of the winner and because GC, Union and Va High all played Central, they'll all go up or down equally. Graham and Va High will be big RC and TS fans the next two weeks.

 

Burton over RC, Lebanon over RR and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 276 27.6
03.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Union 7-3 227 22.7
05.) Va High 8-2 226 22.6
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

 

RC over Burton, RR over Lebanon and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Gate City 7-3 226 22.6
04.) Union 7-3 225 22.5
05.) Va High 8-2 224 22.4
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

 

RR over Lebanon, Burton over RC and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 276 27.6
03.) Union 7-3 227 22.7
04.) Gate City 7-3 226 22.6
05.) Va High 8-2 224 22.4
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

 

RR over Lebanon, RC over Burton and TW over TS

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Union 7-3 227 22.7
04.) Gate City 7-3 226 22.6
05.) Va High 8-2 224 22.4
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

 

Lebanon over RR, RC over Burton and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Gate City 7-3 228 22.8
04.) Va High 8-2 226 22.6
05.) Union 7-3 225 22.5
06.) Lee 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 4-6 167 16.7

Lebanon over RR, RC over Burton, TS over TW AND what if Central upsets GC. 

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 10-0 276 27.6
02.) Ridgeview 10-0 274 27.4
03.) Va High 8-2 228 22.8
04.) Union 7-3 226 22.6
05.) Lee 6-4 214 21.4
06.) Gate City 6-4 213 21.3
07.) Tazewell 6-4 198 19.8
08.) Central-Wise 5-5 184 18.4
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For 1D, so many tossup games. I could do so many scenarios! Honaker has assured themselves a playoff game with their victory over PH last week unless they inexplicably lay an egg against Northwood. The big games are going to be Lebanon/RR, RC/Burton, Grundy/Central, Holston/RR. TW has been eliminated barring a miracle, but TS can get in with a win over them or RC. Lebanon has to beat RR or they are most likely eliminated as well.

 

Grundy over Central, RC over Burton, Holston over RR, Hurley over Montcalm, RR over Lebanon and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grundy 6-3 191 21.22222
02.) Rye Cove 8-1 188 20.88889
03.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 204 20.4
04.) Holston 7-3 186 18.6
05.) Honaker 6-3 163 18.11111
06.) Twin Springs 6-3 162 18
07.) Hurley 5-4 158 17.55556
08.) Rural Retreat 5-4 150 16.66667

Central over Grundy, Burton over RC, Holston over RR, Montcalm over Hurley, Lebanon over RR and TS over TW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 202 20.2
02.) Grundy 5-4 177 19.66667
03.) Rye Cove 7-2 170 18.88889
04.) Holston 7-3 186 18.6
05.) JI Burton 6-4 182 18.2
06.) Twin Springs 6-3 162 18
07.) Honaker 6-3 161 17.88889
08.) Lebanon 6-4 175 17.5
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If you are Graham or Ridgeview, you want to miss Union in round 2.  Either Graham or Ridgeview will be playing Union in round 2 of the playoffs (if Union wins game 1).  It looks like Union is headed for a 4 or 5 seed.  If that's the case, if you are Graham, you want Ridgeview to outpoint you and finish 1st.  If you are a Ridgeview fan, you want the opposite.  

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1C is still dependent on the Grayson Co showdowns with Galax and GW.

 

Galax over West Stokes, NC and Grayson, GW over Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 6-3 196 21.77778
02.) George Wythe 6-3 189 21
03.) Narrows 8-1 179 19.88889
04.) Grayson Co 8-2 190 19
05.) Giles 3-5 130 16.25
06.) Bath Co 5-5 156 15.6
07.) Covington 3-7 146 14.6
08.) Fort Chiswell 2-7 120 13.33333

 

Galax over WS, Grayson over Galax and GW over Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) George Wythe 6-3 189 21
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 206 20.6
03.) Narrows 8-1 179 19.88889
04.) Galax 5-4 177 19.66667
05.) Giles 3-5 130 16.25
06.) Bath Co 5-5 156 15.6
07.) Covington 3-7 147 14.7
08.) Fort Chiswell 2-7 120 13.33333

 

Galax over WS and Grayson, Grayson over GW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Galax 6-3 197 21.88889
02.) Grayson Co 9-1 206 20.6
03.) Narrows 8-1 179 19.88889
04.) George Wythe 5-4 170 18.88889
05.) Giles 3-5 130 16.25
06.) Bath Co 5-5 156 15.6
07.) Covington 3-7 147 14.7
08.) Fort Chiswell 2-7 120 13.33333

 

Galax over WS and Grayson over both Galax and GW

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 222 22.2
02.) Narrows 8-1 179 19.88889
03.) Galax 5-4 177 19.66667
04.) George Wythe 5-4 169 18.77778
05.) Giles 3-5 130 16.25
06.) Bath Co 5-5 156 15.6
07.) Covington 3-7 148 14.8
08.) Fort Chiswell 2-7 120 13.33333

 

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11 minutes ago, SamJackson said:

I just hope the principals and athletic directors in 2d will see that having 8 teams in the playoffs is ridiculous.  I think someone mentioned this earlier 6 team playoff and 1 and 2 seed getting a bye.  

But then you will upset someone and we can't have thar lol

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