Union_Fan 2,155 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 It's fun to play with the remaining games to determine some "what ifs." I'm certainly not predicting any of these scenarios. Just playing with the numbers in order to see what must happen to determine "possible" not necessarily "probable" end of season rankings. I'm assuming likely wins(using my best guess and/or flipping a coin) in all other games that are not specifically mentioned, especially if they are district games and won't make a difference in point totals for top teams. For Richlands to be #1.....Union loses to Letcher Central, Appo loses to Amherst, Glenvar loses to Radford, ALL of Richland's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and at least 1 of Eastside, Lee, and David Crockett lose their final game. 1.) Richlands 9-1 277 27.7 2.) Union 9-1 275 27.5 3.) Appomattox County 9-1 273 27.3 4.) Buckingham County 9-1 262 26.2 5.) Glenvar 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 257 25.7 For Union to be #1..... Even if the top 6 win out, Union can still snag the #1 spot if...ALL of Union's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and Heritage loses one of their final 2 games. 1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Appomattox 10-0 290 29 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 5.) Buckingham 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6 If Appo loses to Amherst, the rest of the top 6 win out, Heritage loses one of their final 2 games, and Graham, Abingdon, Grundy, Virginia High, and Bluefield win 6 of their final 8 NON-SW District games. 1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 3.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 4.) Appomattox 9-1 273 27.3 5.) Buckingham 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6 But most likely 1-6 go like this because I don't expect Lee, Crockett, and Eastside to all win out. 1.) Appomattox County 10-0 290 29 2.) Union 10-0 288 28.8 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 276 27.6 5.) Buckingham County 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6 Now, for 7-16..... If Graham wins out, Gate City over Central, Va High over Lee, Grundy over Ridgeview, Ridgeview over Honaker, Martinsville loses their last 2, and Altavista over Gretna. 7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Dan River 6-4 208 20.8 9.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 10.) Central-Wise 6-4 202 20.2 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Gate City 4-6 194 19.4 13.) Virginia High 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Grundy 5-5 192 19.2 15.) Ridgeview 5-5 181 18.1 16.) Lee 5-5 178 17.8 If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Va High all win out, Central over Gate City, and Martinsville loses their last 2. 7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 14.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Lee 5-5 180 18 16.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8 If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Lee win out and Central over GC. 7.) James River-Buchanan 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Ridgeview 6-4 196 19.6 12.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 15.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8 16.) Grundy 4-6 177 17.7 If Martinsville wins just one of their remaining 2 games they will knock one of the above 13-16 teams out depending on which scenario we end the season with. James River only has Covington left, so they will most likely be a lock for #7. The fight for 8-16 will be intense. BlueRazor and wave316 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBearsGo 142 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Good stuff man! You have way to much time on your hands!! Just kidding... I was wondering if Union would be able to hang onto the #1 spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokiebird7 1,416 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Great Stuff and I know it took you a while to do all of this.....thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Martinsville has Patrick County to end the season, they should get a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHC87 60 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Union_Fan, I am impressed! All I have been able to do is narrow done the most likely 1 or 2 opponents for Abingdon.....and that took some time. I follow the Piedmont District pretty closely as I am originally from that area...I also follow much of the Western part of the state. Martinsville will probably beat Patrick County and have a chance against Bassett this week. Amherst could knock off Appomattox this weekend....they are a solid 4A team. Heritage might well lose to Liberty but E.C. Glass isn't very good so they should win that one. There are just so many moving parts...who knows how the seedings will play out??? It was entertaining to see all your scenarios.....Good Job!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigrhsfan 884 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Thanks Union_Fan for that ! That is a lot of numbers to crunch so thanks for making it easier for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akshun 25 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 I had to take some Tylenol. All these numbers gave me a headache. Appreciate all your number crunching. EHC87 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwood78 161 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Gees, advil, tylenol, i know what ya 'll saying .. cwood78 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM3-8404 103 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Union and Richlands may be close in football, but I wouldn't want Richlands to be in a math contest with Union after that display lol. Great job. EHC87, Ryan4VT and Deleted Account 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepin nuts 27 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 I do a similar worksheet for 3A West. It is amazing to see how many teams will be affected in 2A and 3A by Heritage, Appomattox and Gretna. Ryan4VT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Thanks guys. I enjoy crunching the numbers just to see what is possible, and with HS football, a LOT is possible. No sure things. I'll put up some more next week after Friday's games. wave316 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWinners 1,643 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 I wouldnt mind RIchlands being the #1 seed because that means we would avoid them untill a potential state title game unless we fall to four. I just want it to work out where Richlands and Union meet in Salem. SWVA represent! wave316 and Bigrhsfan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techfan 43 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 I'll be the first to admit I haven't looked at the playoff points very closely but it seems insane to me that a 4-6 Grundy would get in over a 4-6 Tazewell (could be moot if they lose to Lebanon) that just beat them 28-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamerball 566 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 The Grundy win was the only one of Tazewell's wins against a team that has more than 1 win, that's the killer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Not a whole lot of scenarios left to look at. Several teams are open or have cupcakes left this week.Looks like the top 9 are set with the Appomattox and Dan River games to determine the exact seeding. The top 4 will most likely look like this with an Appomattox win. 1.)Appomattox 2.)Union 3.)Glenvar 4.)Richlands With an Appo loss it will probably look like this. 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Richlands 4.)Appomattox OR this 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Appomattox 4.)Richlands, depending on Bluefield and Va High. 5-9 are pretty simple. Dan River wins and it looks like this. 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Dan River 9.)Central(Wise) If Dan River loses.... 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Central(Wise) 9.)Dan River 10-16 is a mess with teams that could finish as high as #10 with a win or possibly out with a loss. Win and they're in teams...Lee, Va High, Grayson Co, Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville Win and they could be in....Randolph-Henry, Chatham Lose and they're still in...Grayson Co, Graham Lose and could still be in...Lee,Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville Lose and they're out....Randolph-Henry, Chatham Some hypothetical scenarios for how Gate City can be in or out of the playoffs. If Ridgeview and Va High win Friday then GC is out unless some major upsets happened. If Lee, Honaker and Randolph-Henry wins then GC would most likely be out. If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Nottoway wins then GC can grab the 16th seed. If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Randolph-Henry win then GC could be tied for 16th seed with Randolf-Henry. If Va High, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Ridgeview and Chatham for 16th. If Lee, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Chatham and Virginia high for 16th. Most of the 10-16 teams are going to be determined by somewhat predictable games. I think the final seeding is going to come down to 3 games Va High/Lee, Ridgeview/Honaker, Grayson/Galax. If Grayson, Va High and Ridgeview all win. 10.) Grayson 7-3 209 20.9 11.) Graham 5-5 208 20.8 12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 14.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 16.) Lee 5-5 180 18 If Grayson, Va High and Rideview all lose. 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4 12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Randolph-Henry 5-5 178 17.8 16.) Ridgeview 5-5 178 17.8 If Ridgeview and Va High win and Grayson loses. 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 16.) Lee 5-5 180 18 Unchained and BlueRazor 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wave316 64 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Not a whole lot of scenarios left to look at. Several teams are open or have cupcakes left this week.Looks like the top 9 are set with the Appomattox and Dan River games to determine the exact seeding. The top 4 will most likely look like this with an Appomattox win. 1.)Appomattox 2.)Union 3.)Glenvar 4.)Richlands With an Appo loss it will probably look like this. 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Richlands 4.)Appomattox OR this 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Appomattox 4.)Richlands, depending on Bluefield and Va High. 5-9 are pretty simple. Dan River wins and it looks like this. 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Dan River 9.)Central(Wise) If Dan River loses.... 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Central(Wise) 9.)Dan River 10-16 is a mess with teams that could finish as high as #10 with a win or possibly out with a loss. Win and they're in teams...Lee, Va High, Grayson Co, Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville Win and they could be in....Randolph-Henry, Chatham Lose and they're still in...Grayson Co, Graham Lose and could still be in...Lee,Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville Lose and they're out....Randolph-Henry, Chatham Some hypothetical scenarios for how Gate City can be in or out of the playoffs. If Ridgeview and Va High win Friday then GC is out unless some major upsets happened. If Lee, Honaker and Randolph-Henry wins then GC would most likely be out. If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Nottoway wins then GC can grab the 16th seed. If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Randolph-Henry win then GC could be tied for 16th seed with Randolf-Henry. If Va High, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Ridgeview and Chatham for 16th. If Lee, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Chatham and Virginia high for 16th. Most of the 10-16 teams are going to be determined by somewhat predictable games. I think the final seeding is going to come down to 3 games Va High/Lee, Ridgeview/Honaker, Grayson/Galax. If Grayson, Va High and Ridgeview all win. 10.) Grayson 7-3 209 20.9 11.) Graham 5-5 208 20.8 12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 14.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 16.) Lee 5-5 180 18 If Grayson, Va High and Rideview all lose. 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4 12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Randolph-Henry 5-5 178 17.8 16.) Ridgeview 5-5 178 17.8 If Ridgeview and Va High win and Grayson loses. 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3 14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 16.) Lee 5-5 180 18 What is a doomsday scenario for Ridgeview to be eliminated....lose and what else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 What is a doomsday scenario for Ridgeview to be eliminated....lose and what else? Ridgeview loss along with a Va High and Randolph-Henry win would see Ridgeview fall into a tie with GC for 17. If Gretna were to lose(which MOST likely isn't going to happen), in this scenario then Ridgeview could find itself tied with GC and Randolph-Henry for 16. I'm not sure who would win that tie breaker. Since Ridgeview can still get in with a Va High win I guess it comes down to a Randolph-Henry win to fully eliminate them. And Randolph-Henry will be favored to win their game, so Ridgeview really needs to take care of business. wave316 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redtiger 1,742 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Ridgeview would have the tiebreaker over GC but idk how it would work with R-H. When it comes right down to it if Rv cant win this game then they don't deserve to be in. I mean no disrespect to Honaker at all but Rvs backs are against the wall, take care of business. Win and the 11-12 seed looks pretty good. Btw, thanks Union_Fan. A lot of people on here wont say thanks just because it would take up too much space but we all appreciate the work you've put into this. How does #1-9 look? sixcat and Union_Fan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trumpet1988 289 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Let's look at Gate City. If I understand you correctly, Gate City has a very slight shot but the right teams have to win/lose. Union could be playing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Every team in 1-9 could lose tomorrow, excluding Richlands and Central, and would still be in 1-9 somewhere. The only conceivable movement would be Dan River and Central trading places or Appo ending up at 3 or 4 with a loss. I just don't see Union, Glenvar, Buckingham, Giles or James River losing though. If they did all lose it would look something like this... 1.) Richlands 9-1 275 27.5 2.) Appomattox County 9-1 273 27.3 3.) Union 9-1 273 27.3 4.) Glenvar 9-1 268 26.8 5.) Buckingham County 8-2 248 24.8 6.) Giles 8-2 238 23.8 7.) James River-Buchanan 7-3 213 21.3 8.) Dan River 6-4 211 21.1 9.) Central-Wise 7-3 211 21.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Let's look at Gate City. If I understand you correctly, Gate City has a very slight shot but the right teams have to win/lose. Union could be playing them. Yes. There are several ways GC could get in, but most aren't going to happen. So, yes, possible, but it's going to be hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unionguy_2017 288 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Maybe I read wrong, but am I right that it looks like Union and Richlands will miss each other regardless? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Union_Fan 2,155 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Maybe I read wrong, but am I right that it looks like Union and Richlands will miss each other regardless? Based on "probable" scenarios, yes, BUT if Appomattox loses and either Bluefield or Va High were to lose too, then Union would be #1 and Richlands #4 which would set up a possible 3rd round matchup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redtiger 1,742 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 I hadn't really thought about this before but teams like GC are practicing even though chances are they wont get in. How does a coach keep his team motivated for that??? Just treat it like a spring practice in that you go over your stuff and work more with the underclassmen? Tough situation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unionguy_2017 288 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Based on "probable" scenarios, yes, BUT if Appomattox loses and either Bluefield or Va High were to lose too, then Union would be #1 and Richlands #4 which would set up a possible 3rd round matchup. Okay gotcha.. So with a Appomattox win, no chance of the 3rd round matchup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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