Final week projections....

[KW23 10]

Y'all going to beat them?

[TS Fan 2]

2 hours ago, KW23 said:

Y'all going to beat them?

Should be a great game. Twin Springs has improved since last year but Rye Cove has too. What worries me the most is that Rye Cove has played a better schedule and we are still struggling with injuries.

[Union_Fan 2,155]

12 hours ago, SWVAgridiron said:

@Union_Fan I have Giles and FC tied at 155 IF Giles beats them Friday going by the last scenario for 1C. Is that what you have?

I have them tied at 156 under that scenario, and it would look something like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Narrows	8-2	225	22.5
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Bath Co	9-1	204	20.4
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	171	17.1
07.)	Fort Chiswell	4-6	156	15.6
08.)	Giles	3-7	156	15.6
09.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
10.)	East Mont	3-7	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	58	8.285714

[Union_Fan 2,155]

11 hours ago, KW23 said:

Union Fan if Twin springs beats Rye Cove how do you have them with 213PTS.  I agree it will be 194 if they lose... But how will a win make them have 19 more points... Would it just be 11 more points.. So maximum they could have would be 205 not 213?

 

10 hours ago, KW23 said:

Also u mentioned twin valley vs east mont game. Who do u think wins?

A loss to RC gets them 4 base points and 9 rider points for a total of 13. If they beat RC they get 16 base points plus 16 rider points for a total of 32. If you lose you only get 1 pt for each win your opponent has. If you win you get 2 for each. So, 19pt difference.

I have East Mont winning over TV, but that's just a guess. In the grand scheme of things, the outcome could possibly flip the 7th and 8th seeds for both 1C and 1D, but it's not going to make a difference in getting in or pushing out for anyone.

[KW23 10]

Thanks

[KW23 10]

Union_Fan... Hypothetical question... What if eastside and rural retreat are tied in points at the end of season do you know how 1D breaks ties?  They didn't play each other and have only 1 common opponent chilhowie(rural won eastside lost)  but eastside will be 6-4 vs RR 5-5?

[Union_Fan 2,155]

27 minutes ago, KW23 said:

Union_Fan... Hypothetical question... What if eastside and rural retreat are tied in points at the end of season do you know how 1D breaks ties?  They didn't play each other and have only 1 common opponent chilhowie(rural won eastside lost)  but eastside will be 6-4 vs RR 5-5?

In that case RR gets the nod due to tie break c.) Team with better record against common opponents.

[KW23 10]

Thanks!  Appreciate you figuring all this out

[SWVAgridiron 1,469]

8 hours ago, Union_Fan said:

I have them tied at 156 under that scenario, and it would look something like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Narrows	8-2	225	22.5
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Bath Co	9-1	204	20.4
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	171	17.1
07.)	Fort Chiswell	4-6	156	15.6
08.)	Giles	3-7	156	15.6
09.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
10.)	East Mont	3-7	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	58	8.285714

Wouldn’t Giles get the tie breaker since they win the head to head?

[Union_Fan 2,155]

44 minutes ago, SWVAgridiron said:

Wouldn’t Giles get the tie breaker since they win the head to head?

Yes! That would be the 1st tie breaker.

I have Ft Chiswell listed 1st simply due to sorting in alphabetical order.

[Gridiron60 2,555]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IUbLZjCcuLGhjUVQnvUB-eCCv65xdLTb/view?usp=drivesdk
 

I am reading this correctly? It has Tazewell & Gate City tied at 3/4 and Ridgeview at 5???   @Union_Fan 

[Union_Fan 2,155]

5 minutes ago, Gridiron60 said:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IUbLZjCcuLGhjUVQnvUB-eCCv65xdLTb/view?usp=drivesdk
 

I am reading this correctly? It has Tazewell & Gate City tied at 3/4 and Ridgeview at 5???   @Union_Fan 

Yes, for this week anyways. After Friday, with Ridgeview and Tazewell's expected wins, along with rider points should push Ridgeview to 3rd, Tazewell to 4th and GC down to 5th.

[Gridiron60 2,555]

2 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Yes, for this week anyways. After Friday, with Ridgeview and Tazewell's expected wins, along with rider points should push Ridgeview to 3rd, Tazewell to 4th and GC down to 5th.

Thanks! 

[Hokie Bound 107]

Things are setting up for a classic between Union and Graham in late November. I hope both teams can come being as close to 100% healthy as possible. That is the game everyone wants to see. Two powerhouses with great great athletes,coaches,fans, and unwavering community pride! Big Stone Gap will be rocking.

[sixcat 2,920]

On 10/29/2023 at 4:39 PM, Union_Fan said:

Was going to wait until tomorrow to post these, but a lot of people are asking. In 2A West, Radford has clinched homefield through the semis with Union 2nd and Graham 3rd. Seeds 1-4 are all but wrapped up barring some craziness. 5-8 still have a lot of wiggle room. Va High/Marion are playing for the 6th seed. Tennessee and Kentucky have wrapped up their regular season, so there are no more rider points to be had from them.

If everything goes right for Tazewell, and that includes Marion over Va High, they would be tied with Ridgeview in points, but the Pack would win the tie with the best overall record.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	9-1	275	27.5
02.)	Graham	9-1	261	26.1
03.)	Ridgeview	8-2	221	22.1
04.)	Tazewell	7-3	221	22.1
05.)	Gate City	6-4	206	20.6
06.)	Marion	5-5	180	18
07.)	Lee	4-6	169	16.9
08.)	Va High	4-6	166	16.6
09.)	John Battle	3-7	163	16.3
10.)	Lebanon	3-7	151	15.1
11.)	Central-Wise	1-9	137	13.7
12.)	Richlands	0-10	125	12.5

If Va High defeats Marion. This is also the only way that Battle can get into the playoffs, but they need help with a Central win over Grundy.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	9-1	275	27.5
02.)	Graham	9-1	261	26.1
03.)	Ridgeview	8-2	223	22.3
04.)	Tazewell	7-3	221	22.1
05.)	Gate City	6-4	204	20.4
06.)	Va High	5-5	181	18.1
07.)	Lee	4-6	169	16.9
08.)	Marion	4-6	165	16.5
09.)	John Battle	3-7	164	16.4
10.)	Lebanon	3-7	151	15.1
11.)	Central-Wise	1-9	136	13.6
12.)	Richlands	0-10	125	12.5

 

Unlikely, but if GC defeats Ridgeview.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Union	9-1	275	27.5
02.)	Graham	9-1	261	26.1
03.)	Gate City	7-3	222	22.2
04.)	Tazewell	7-3	221	22.1
05.)	Ridgeview	7-3	206	20.6
06.)	Va High	5-5	180	18
07.)	Lee	4-6	169	16.9
08.)	Marion	4-6	166	16.6
09.)	John Battle	3-7	164	16.4
10.)	Lebanon	3-7	151	15.1
11.)	Central-Wise	1-9	136	13.6
12.)	Richlands	0-10	125	12.5

For 1D, Honaker has the Top seed wrapped up with Twin Springs and Rye Cove fighting for #2. Patrick Henry appears to be locked into the top 4. Whether they get 3 or 4 will depend on RC/TS.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Honaker	10-0	260	26
02.)	Rye Cove	9-1	222	22.2
03.)	Pat Henry-GS	7-3	196	19.6
04.)	Twin Springs	8-2	194	19.4
05.)	Holston	6-4	189	18.9
06.)	Grundy	5-5	183	18.3
07.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	175	17.5
08.)	Eastside	6-4	174	17.4
09.)	Chilhowie	4-6	159	15.9
10.)	Hurley	5-5	158	15.8
11.)	Thomas Walker	5-5	150	15
12.)	JI Burton	1-9	116	11.6
13.)	Northwood	1-9	109	10.9
14.)	Castlewood	1-9	107	10.7
15.)	Twin Valley	2-8	103	10.3

If  TS defeats RC.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Honaker	10-0	258	25.8
02.)	Twin Springs	9-1	213	21.3
03.)	Rye Cove	8-2	203	20.3
04.)	Pat Henry-GS	7-3	196	19.6
05.)	Holston	6-4	189	18.9
06.)	Grundy	5-5	183	18.3
07.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	175	17.5
08.)	Eastside	6-4	174	17.4
09.)	Chilhowie	4-6	158	15.8
10.)	Hurley	5-5	158	15.8
11.)	Thomas Walker	5-5	150	15
12.)	JI Burton	1-9	116	11.6
13.)	Northwood	1-9	109	10.9
14.)	Castlewood	1-9	107	10.7
15.)	Twin Valley	2-8	103	10.3

If Chilhowie can get by Holston. 6-9 will be very close. A rider point here or there could make a difference. Twin Valley defeating East Mont could shake these up.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Honaker	10-0	260	26
02.)	Rye Cove	9-1	224	22.4
03.)	Pat Henry-GS	7-3	196	19.6
04.)	Twin Springs	8-2	194	19.4
05.)	Grundy	5-5	183	18.3
06.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	176	17.6
07.)	Eastside	6-4	175	17.5
08.)	Chilhowie	5-5	175	17.5
09.)	Holston	5-5	174	17.4
10.)	Hurley	5-5	157	15.7
11.)	Thomas Walker	5-5	150	15
12.)	JI Burton	1-9	117	11.7
13.)	Northwood	1-9	109	10.9
14.)	Castlewood	1-9	107	10.7
15.)	Twin Valley	2-8	103	10.3

If Grundy loses to Central.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Honaker	10-0	258	25.8
02.)	Rye Cove	9-1	222	22.2
03.)	Pat Henry-GS	7-3	195	19.5
04.)	Twin Springs	8-2	194	19.4
05.)	Holston	6-4	189	18.9
06.)	Eastside	6-4	175	17.5
07.)	Rural Retreat	5-5	175	17.5
08.)	Grundy	4-6	171	17.1
09.)	Chilhowie	4-6	159	15.9
10.)	Hurley	5-5	157	15.7
11.)	Thomas Walker	5-5	150	15
12.)	JI Burton	1-9	116	11.6
13.)	Northwood	1-9	109	10.9
14.)	Castlewood	1-9	107	10.7
15.)	Twin Valley	2-8	102	10.2

For 1C. After their victory over Bluefield, Grayson looked like the team to beat in 1C. I don't think they're the automatic favorite against Galax now. I had a feeling they might drop one to GW or Galax, but now they might just drop both. And if they do, it will look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Narrows	8-2	223	22.3
02.)	Galax	7-3	215	21.5
03.)	Grayson Co	8-2	214	21.4
04.)	George Wythe	7-3	208	20.8
05.)	Bath Co	9-1	204	20.4
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	141	14.1
09.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
10.)	East Mont	3-7	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	58	8.285714

Holy weak schedules Batman, a 9-1 Bath Co could finish 5th, but, if they do defeat Narrows, it would look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Bath Co	10-0	222	22.2
02.)	Galax	7-3	215	21.5
03.)	Grayson Co	8-2	214	21.4
04.)	George Wythe	7-3	208	20.8
05.)	Narrows	7-3	203	20.3
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	140	14
09.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
10.)	East Mont	3-7	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	58	8.285714

Assuming Narrows and Grayson both win Friday night, it will look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Narrows	8-2	223	22.3
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Bath Co	9-1	204	20.4
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	141	14.1
09.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
10.)	East Mont	3-7	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	58	8.285714

 

I didn't bother doing anything for 2C as the top 4 is set and 5-8 isn't getting by 1-4. I am looking forward to seeing how Radford gets through Appo and Gretna or Glenvar again. Will be interesting. If there are any other scenarios I can run, let me know.

Could I impose upon you to run the 1C calculations if Grayson and Bath both win, please? 
 

We’re trying to determine our possible playoff scenarios to let band parents know something because they are wearing me out at the moment. 

[Union_Fan 2,155]

2 hours ago, sixcat said:

Could I impose upon you to run the 1C calculations if Grayson and Bath both win, please? 
 

We’re trying to determine our possible playoff scenarios to let band parents know something because they are wearing me out at the moment. 

Certainly! It would look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Bath Co	10-0	222	22.2
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Narrows	7-3	203	20.3
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	140	14
09.)	East Mont	3-7	127	12.7
10.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	59	8.428571429

[sixcat 2,920]

12 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

Certainly! It would look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Bath Co	10-0	222	22.2
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Narrows	7-3	203	20.3
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	140	14
09.)	East Mont	3-7	127	12.7
10.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	59	8.428571429

That’s the way I thought it would fall. I had guesstimated potentially hosting Fort Chiswell or Giles and traveling to Bath or Narrows depending on result from Friday. 
 

I’m amazed at how quickly our band parents forget how these things work. Many were shocked yesterday to learn the band would continue to perform football games as long as Galax remains in the playoffs. It’s not like we don’t do this every year. But every year, a large percentage of our parents forget marching band includes playoff football games. 
 

Thank you for your service!

[Union_Fan 2,155]

5 minutes ago, sixcat said:

That’s the way I thought it would fall. I had guesstimated potentially hosting Fort Chiswell or Giles and traveling to Bath or Narrows depending on result from Friday. 
 

I’m amazed at how quickly our band parents forget how these things work. Many were shocked yesterday to learn the band would continue to perform football games as long as Galax remains in the playoffs. It’s not like we don’t do this every year. But every year, a large percentage of our parents forget marching band includes playoff football games. 
 

Thank you for your service!

Over the years, I have found that people tend to easily forget things they don't want to do.

[BigWinners 1,643]

This is my first year as a semi-band parent and I’m jazzed, I now have an excuse to go to any Union playoff games guilt free lolol

[S10SQUAREBODY4LIFE 239]

Union	18+8	18	14+8	18+16	18+12	16+2+16	18+14	18+2	20+10
8W-1L	W VS LEE	W VS RICH	L VS S.HILL	W VS GRAH	VS GATE CI	VS T.SPRI	VS R.VIEW	VS CENT	VS ABIN	VS JSB
	26	18	22	34	30	34	32	20	30		27.33333
Graham	18+8	16+2+12	16+2+12	6 + 8	18+8	18+8	18+6	20+6	18+12
8W-1L	W VS BLUFLD	W VS GLX	W VS G.W.	L VS UN	W VS VHS	W VS MAR	W VS LEB	VS PUL	VS TAZ	VS RICH
	26	30	30	14	26	26	24	26	30	18	25
Gate City	18	16+2+14	8+5	18+8	6+8	10+7	18+8	18+6	18+2
6W-3L	W VS RICH	W VS MBOR	L VS ABIN	W VS MAR	L VS UN	L VS TNHI	VS LEE	VS JSB	VS CENT	VS R.V.
	18	32	13	26	14	17	26	24	20		21.11111
Ridgeview	16+2+2	16+2+8	18+2	18+8	18+8	18	6+8	18+6	8+5
7W-2L	W VS JIB	W VS GRUN	W VS CENT	W VS VHS	W VS LEE	W VS RICH	VS UNION	W VS JSB	VS ABIN	VS G.C.
	20	26	20	26	26	18	14	24	13		20.77778
Tazewell	6+7	18	16+2+8	8+7	16+2+8	18+8	18+8	16+2+4	6+8
6W-3L	L VS RHEAD	W VS RICH	W VS FORT	L VS PRINC	W VS GRU	W VS VHS	MARION	GILES	GRAHAM	LEBANON
	13	18	26	15	26	26	26	22	14		20.66667
Va High	4+2+6	18+6	6+10	6+7	6+8	6+6	18	16+2	18+6
4W-5L	L VS PH	W VS JSB	L VS RADF	L VS R.VIE	L VS GRAH	L VS TAZ	W VS RICH	W VS JENK	VS LEB	VS MAR
	12	24	16	13	14	12	18	18	24		16.77778
Lee	6+8	16+2+8	16+2+4	6+7	4+2+8	16+2+2	6+6	18+2	6+3
4W-5L	L VS UNION	W VS TWALK	W VS PINV	L VS R.V.	L VS COVE	W VS JIB	VS G.C.	VS CENT	VS JSB	VS ABIN
	14	26	22	13	14	20	12	20	9		16.66667
Marion	4+2+4	18+2	18 + 6	6+5	6+7	8+5	6+6	16+2+6	18
4W-5L	L VS CHIL	W  VS CENT	W VS LEB	L VS G.C.	L VS GRA	L VS ABIN	VS TAZ	VS GRUNDY	VS RICH	VS VHS
	10	20	24	11	13	13	12	24	18		16.11111
John Battle	20+10	6+3	4+2+5	4+2+6	6 + 3	18+2	6+7	6+6	18+8
3W-6L	W VS ABIN	L VS VHS	L VS HOL	L VS PH	L VS LEB	W VS CENT	VS R.V.	VS G.C.	VS LEE	VS UN
	30	9	11	12	9	20	13	12	26		15.77778
Lebanon	4+2+8	4+2+6	6+4	16+2	18	18+6	4+5	6+8	6+4
3W-6L	L VS HON	L VS PH	L VS MAR	W VS CAS	W VS RICH	W VS JSB	L VS RR	VS GRAH	VS VHS	VS TAZ
	14	12	10	18	18	24	9	14	10		14.33333
Central-Wise	16+2+10	6+4	6+7	8+5	8+5	6+3	6+8	6+4	6+6
1W-8L	W VS EASTSI	l vs marion	L VS R.V.	L VS LETCH	L VS ABIN	L VS JSB	UN	LEE	G.C.	GRUN
	28	10	13	13	13	9	14	10	12		13.55556
Richlands	6+5	6+7	6+6	8+5	6+3	6+7	6+3	4+2+6	6+4
0W-9L	L VS G.C.	L VS UN	L VS TAZ	L VS ABIN	L VS LEB	Ridgeview	V.H.S.	Galax	Marion	Graham
	11	13	12	13	9	13	9	12	10		11.33333
2+ FOR	1A	0-475	2A	476-735	3A	736-1060
PLAYING	16/4		18/6		20/8
LOWER	4A	1133-1540	5A	1541-1950	6A	1951-3777
CLASS	22/10		24/12		26/14

[jwgarrett20 28]

Any chance Marion passes Lee for the 7 spot this week?

[Liam McPoyle 1,863]

21 minutes ago, jwgarrett20 said:

Any chance Marion passes Lee for the 7 spot this week?

In an earlier post, @Union_Fan ran three different scenarios with the Va High-Marion winner finishing 6th and the loser 8th. Lee finished 7th in all three.

[MT FAN 91 119]

On 11/1/2023 at 7:18 PM, Union_Fan said:

Certainly! It would look like this.

Rank	Team	Record	Total Points	Rating
01.)	Grayson Co	9-1	231	23.1
02.)	Bath Co	10-0	222	22.2
03.)	George Wythe	7-3	209	20.9
04.)	Narrows	7-3	203	20.3
05.)	Galax	6-4	196	19.6
06.)	Parry McCluer	6-4	173	17.3
07.)	Fort Chiswell	5-5	169	16.9
08.)	Giles	2-8	140	14
09.)	East Mont	3-7	127	12.7
10.)	Auburn	2-8	126	12.6
11.)	Craig Co	2-8	114	11.4
12.)	Bland Co	1-6	59	8.428571429

What if Galax beats Grayson?

[MT FAN 91 119]

29 minutes ago, MT FAN 91 said:

What if Galax beats Grayson?

Sorry I didn't see where it had already been posted in this thread

[S10SQUAREBODY4LIFE 239]

Should be Locked: U-1

                            Gr-2

                           GC/RV Winner-3

                           Taz-4

                          GC/RV Loser 5

                         Mar/VHS Winner-6

                        Lee-7

                        Mar/VHS Loser 8

 

exceptions: JSB defeats Union they'd jump to at least 17.6 before riders and knock Mar/VHS out, Lee defeats AB and jumps to 18, VHS win 17.7 or Mar 17.1.   

who knows?  don't assume anything lol