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Final week projections....


Union_Fan
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Lots of football left and I'm sure kids and coaches are taking it 1 week at a time and trying to get better.  Even Union this week with Central, they can improve on things and in certain areas to get better.  Going to be a great end of the regular season and I'm looking forward to the playoffs.  I think Radford will win Region C and the matchup against what is likely going to be Union or Graham is going to be one for the ages.   Same for the East Winner who comes to Salem.  Good chance it's Riverheads or Central,  but could be Clarke, Poquoson, or Buckingham, and even King William isn't out of it.  They played right with Central Woodstock a few weeks ago, so the finals will also be a great game whoever it is.  

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3 hours ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Lots of football left and I'm sure kids and coaches are taking it 1 week at a time and trying to get better.  Even Union this week with Central, they can improve on things and in certain areas to get better.  Going to be a great end of the regular season and I'm looking forward to the playoffs.  I think Radford will win Region C and the matchup against what is likely going to be Union or Graham is going to be one for the ages.   Same for the East Winner who comes to Salem.  Good chance it's Riverheads or Central,  but could be Clarke, Poquoson, or Buckingham, and even King William isn't out of it.  They played right with Central Woodstock a few weeks ago, so the finals will also be a great game whoever it is.  

Based off what I’ve seen so far from the East and west, it’s Radford against Central in Salem

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14 hours ago, Gridiron60 said:

I have a buddy from Norton, he said there are a lot of people chattering about “this is the year!” I don’t think it’s our friends on this board but probably other locals. I don’t blame them for being excited. It would an awesome accomplishment for Union & Coach Turner. I’m just over here hoping the GMen make it by Pulaski next week and somehow Central pulls a miracle 😂😂😂

I don’t know anyone from BSG who thought that this year was a realistic shot at a deep playoff run. Very young on both sides, lotta young kids get a lot of playing time. Experienced QB back and there’s for sure talent but I think most thought a run to Salem was more possible in two years. 

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6 minutes ago, BigWinners said:

I don’t know anyone from BSG who thought that this year was a realistic shot at a deep playoff run. Very young on both sides, lotta young kids get a lot of playing time. Experienced QB back and there’s for sure talent but I think most thought a run to Salem was more possible in two years. 

Considering what Union has this year, going to be scary the next two years.  If QB is senior, that's a big loss, unless replaced by another mobile QB.  Next years QB could have a team that is  overall better around him at 10 positions on offense next year, but if he is not mobile, that can hurt.  Said this earlier, what makes Union so difficult is obviously multiple things (damn good football players all over the place) but that mobile and crazy elusive QB just puts the Bears on an elite level imo.  

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9 hours ago, Gridiron60 said:

Haha…I don’t see that happening! Bears are rolling! I think some people just talk sometimes to hear their own voice & don’t really know much but think they do 😂😂😂. People that know football know don’t talk about getting a state title until you’re headed to Salem. Too many things can happen between now & December. I guess there’s zero chance of that miracle upset this Friday up at Wise Walmart ? 😂😂😂

We struggle up there for some reason but I don't see any miracles happening.

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1 hour ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Considering what Union has this year, going to be scary the next two years.  If QB is senior, that's a big loss, unless replaced by another mobile QB.  Next years QB could have a team that is  overall better around him at 10 positions on offense next year, but if he is not mobile, that can hurt.  Said this earlier, what makes Union so difficult is obviously multiple things (damn good football players all over the place) but that mobile and crazy elusive QB just puts the Bears on an elite level imo.  

It's probably gonna be Bostic #2 who plays QB next season who is very fast ask Ridgeview kids on the screen pass.  But keep hearing Travis talking about the JV QB so could be him.

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23 minutes ago, UnionGuy2017 said:

Quite frankly, what’s the big deal if Union FANS are talking about having a shot at a state title? I mean my god, look at Vols and Cowboy fans!

Cowboy fans are opposite of the Brian Bosworth Dr. Pepper commercial.  In the Dr. Pepper commercial, the fans turn on the team and the entire season after only the first play of the very first game, lol.  It's the opposite for the Cowboys.  Cowboys can come out in game one and get the ball first and the opening play, have a 12 yard gainer and you can bet many of people are already yapping, "were gonna win the damn SuperBowl this year boys."  

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38 minutes ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Cowboy fans are opposite of the Brian Bosworth Dr. Pepper commercial.  In the Dr. Pepper commercial, the fans turn on the team and the entire season after only the first play of the very first game, lol.  It's the opposite for the Cowboys.  Cowboys can come out in game one and get the ball first and the opening play, have a 12 yard gainer and you can bet many of people are already yapping, "were gonna win the damn SuperBowl this year boys."  

That's currently my favorite commercial. I love it when the guy says, "I'm never watching football again!" as he torches a pile of jerseys and memorabilia LOL

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For all intents and purposes, it looks like the top 4 are pretty settled in 2A-West. Still some movement in 5-8 to be had. 1A-West can still shuffle around with Honaker and Grayson Co the odds on favorites for #1 seeds.

2D...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 277 27.7
02.) Graham 9-1 259 25.9
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 237 23.7
04.) Tazewell 7-3 218 21.8

2C...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Radford 10-0 282 28.2
02.) Gretna 8-2 245 24.5
03.) Glenvar 8-2 227 22.7
04.) Appomattox 5-5 215 21.5

1D...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 262 26.2
02.) Rye Cove 9-1 222 22.2
03.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 194 19.4
04.) Twin Springs 8-2 194 19.4

1C...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 250 25
02.) Narrows 8-2 223 22.3
03.) Bath Co 9-1 202 20.2
04.) Galax 6-4 195 19.5

 

After seeing Grayson Co take down Bluefield, I really like their chances against GW and Galax. Previously, I expected them to lose one of those. That will help Union in the race for the 2A - West overall #1 seed. If both Union and Radford take care of business, which is expected, they could be separated by as many as 12 pts(Radford) or as few as 1 pt(Radford or Union). Bears definitely need some help from Richlands.

Alleghany, Glenvar, James River, Patrick Co, Floyd Co, Carroll Co are non-factors for Radford as these teams play each other and the Bobcats will get 2 pts for each game regardless of the outdcome. Same is true for Lee, JB, Abingdon, Ridgeview and GC for Union.

So, assuming Grayson Co goes 10-0, that takes 4pts away from Radford by defeating GW and Galax. The remaining games of consequence are:

Tazewell/Giles
Ft Chiswell/Giles
Va High/Lebanon
Va High/Marion
Richlands/Galax
Richlands/Marion
SH/DB
Graham/Pulaski
TS/RC
Central/Grundy

There are several paths to get Union to the #1 seed, but these are the most realistic. Giles loses to both Tazewell and Ft. Chiswell, Science Hill over DB, TS over RC, Va High loses to Marion OR Lebanon, Graham over Pulaski. 

Now, couple those games with Central over Grundy and Richlands over Marion.....OR.....Grundy over Central, Marion over Richlands, BUT...Richlands over Galax.

Lots of ifs and buts in there, however, it is possible.

Next 3 weeks will be very exciting to watch!

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1 hour ago, Queue said:

What is the (reasonably) plausible scenario that puts Gate City in the top 4??

 

 

The gap between GC and Tazewell is too wide to be overcome with rider points, so it would take GC upsetting Ridgeview...OR... Tazewell losing to BOTH Giles and Lebanon.

Odds are pretty unlikely.

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  • Union_Fan changed the title to Final 2 weeks projections....

2 Weeks remain with a lot on the line for several teams. Some looking to hold down their current spots, some looking to make it in. The elephant in the room is obviously Abingdon defeating Ridgeview. The Pack lost their chance to host a 2nd rd playoff game if Tazewell were to upset Graham, but that may have been a longshot anyways. However, we'll look into that possibility. 

I'm going to start with the likelihood of Union getting the overall #1 seed in the West. The path has narrowed significantly, and we'll know almost certainly if it can happen after the games Friday night. Richlands needs to defeat Marion, Grayson over Galax and GW, Central over Grundy and Va High would need to lose to Lebanon or Marion.

Let's look at the most realistic scenarios and what if's. I'm currently projecting the following, based on my own predictions. I do think Battle/Lee, Richlands/Marion, RC/TS and Central/Grundy are tossups, but none of those will have an impact on the top 4.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 275 27.5
02.) Graham 9-1 259 25.9
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 223 22.3
04.) Tazewell 7-3 220 22
05.) Gate City 6-4 203 20.3
06.) Va High 5-5 181 18.1
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Marion 4-6 165 16.5
09.) John Battle 3-7 163 16.3
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 136 13.6
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

What if GC upsets Ridgeview?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 275 27.5
02.) Graham 9-1 259 25.9
03.) Gate City 7-3 221 22.1
04.) Tazewell 7-3 220 22
05.) Ridgeview 7-3 206 20.6
06.) Va High 5-5 180 18
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Marion 4-6 166 16.6
09.) John Battle 3-7 163 16.3
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 136 13.6
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

What if Tazewell upsets Graham?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 273 27.3
02.) Graham 8-2 241 24.1
03.) Tazewell 8-2 239 23.9
04.) Ridgeview 8-2 223 22.3
05.) Gate City 6-4 203 20.3
06.) Va High 5-5 181 18.1
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Marion 4-6 165 16.5
09.) John Battle 3-7 163 16.3
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 136 13.6
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

What if Tazewell and GC both provide upsets to Graham and Ridgeview, respectively?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 273 27.3
02.) Graham 8-2 241 24.1
03.) Tazewell 8-2 239 23.9
04.) Gate City 7-3 221 22.1
05.) Ridgeview 7-3 206 20.6
06.) Va High 5-5 180 18
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Marion 4-6 166 16.6
09.) John Battle 3-7 163 16.3
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 136 13.6
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

What if Union loses to Abingdon?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Graham 9-1 258 25.8
02.) Union 8-2 258 25.8
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 223 22.3
04.) Tazewell 7-3 220 22
05.) Gate City 6-4 203 20.3
06.) Va High 5-5 181 18.1
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Marion 4-6 166 16.6
09.) John Battle 3-7 164 16.4
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 136 13.6
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

If Marion wins out?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 275 27.5
02.) Graham 9-1 259 25.9
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 221 22.1
04.) Tazewell 7-3 220 22
05.) Gate City 6-4 205 20.5
06.) Marion 5-5 180 18
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) Va High 4-6 166 16.6
09.) John Battle 3-7 162 16.2
10.) Lebanon 3-7 152 15.2
11.) Central-Wise 1-9 137 13.7
12.) Richlands 0-10 125 12.5

If Richlands defeats Marion?

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 277 27.7
02.) Graham 9-1 259 25.9
03.) Ridgeview 8-2 225 22.5
04.) Tazewell 7-3 220 22
05.) Gate City 6-4 203 20.3
06.) Va High 5-5 181 18.1
07.) Lee 4-6 169 16.9
08.) John Battle 3-7 163 16.3
09.) Marion 3-7 154 15.4
10.) Lebanon 3-7 153 15.3
11.) Richlands 1-9 139 13.9
12.) Central-Wise 1-9 135 13.5

2C doesn't really need projections. They are pretty well settled, and there isn't much interest in 5-8 as none of them pose any real threat to the top 4.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Radford 10-0 282 28.2
02.) Gretna 8-2 245 24.5
03.) Glenvar 8-2 229 22.9
04.) Appomattox 5-5 215 21.5
05.) Chatham 6-4 187 18.7
06.) Floyd Co 3-7 177 17.7
07.) James River 4-6 175 17.5
08.) Patrick Co 4-6 171 17.1
09.) Dan River 3-7 158 15.8
10.) Nelson Co 4-6 152 15.2
11.) Liberty (Bed) 0-10 148 14.8
12.) Martinsville 0-10 127 12.7

For 1D, it's Honaker and several other teams fighting for that top 4. Most likely...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 260 26
02.) Rye Cove 9-1 222 22.2
03.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 195 19.5
04.) Twin Springs 8-2 194 19.4
05.) Rural Retreat 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Grundy 5-5 183 18.3
07.) Eastside 6-4 174 17.4
08.) Holston 5-5 174 17.4
09.) Chilhowie 4-6 159 15.9
10.) Hurley 5-5 157 15.7
11.) Thomas Walker 5-5 150 15
12.) JI Burton 1-9 115 11.5
13.) Northwood 1-9 109 10.9
14.) Castlewood 1-9 107 10.7
15.) Twin Valley 2-8 102 10.2

If TS defeats RC.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 258 25.8
02.) Twin Springs 9-1 213 21.3
03.) Rye Cove 8-2 203 20.3
04.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 195 19.5
05.) Rural Retreat 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Grundy 5-5 183 18.3
07.) Eastside 6-4 174 17.4
08.) Holston 5-5 174 17.4
09.) Chilhowie 4-6 158 15.8
10.) Hurley 5-5 157 15.7
11.) Thomas Walker 5-5 150 15
12.) JI Burton 1-9 115 11.5
13.) Northwood 1-9 109 10.9
14.) Castlewood 1-9 107 10.7
15.) Twin Valley 2-8 102 10.2

Chilhowie defeats Holston.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 260 26
02.) Rye Cove 9-1 224 22.4
03.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 195 19.5
04.) Twin Springs 8-2 194 19.4
05.) Rural Retreat 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Grundy 5-5 183 18.3
07.) Eastside 6-4 175 17.5
08.) Chilhowie 5-5 174 17.4
09.) Holston 4-6 159 15.9
10.) Hurley 5-5 156 15.6
11.) Thomas Walker 5-5 150 15
12.) JI Burton 1-9 116 11.6
13.) Northwood 1-9 109 10.9
14.) Castlewood 1-9 107 10.7
15.) Twin Valley 2-8 102 10.2

Chilhowie defeats Holston and PH.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 260 26
02.) Rye Cove 9-1 226 22.6
03.) Twin Springs 8-2 194 19.4
04.) Chilhowie 6-4 191 19.1
05.) Rural Retreat 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Grundy 5-5 181 18.1
07.) Pat Henry-GS 6-4 179 17.9
08.) Eastside 6-4 176 17.6
09.) Holston 4-6 159 15.9
10.) Hurley 5-5 156 15.6
11.) Thomas Walker 5-5 150 15
12.) JI Burton 1-9 116 11.6
13.) Northwood 1-9 109 10.9
14.) Castlewood 1-9 107 10.7
15.) Twin Valley 2-8 102 10.2

 

For 1C, these are my projections. There is a make up game planned for Montcalm/Craig Co tomorrow, but it shouldn't impact this.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 250 25
02.) Narrows 8-2 221 22.1
03.) Bath Co 9-1 204 20.4
04.) Galax 6-4 195 19.5
05.) George Wythe 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Fort Chiswell 5-5 171 17.1
08.) Giles 2-8 141 14.1
09.) East Mont 3-7 127 12.7
10.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857

If Bath Co finishes undefeated.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 250 25
02.) Bath Co 10-0 222 22.2
03.) Narrows 7-3 201 20.1
04.) Galax 6-4 195 19.5
05.) George Wythe 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Fort Chiswell 5-5 171 17.1
08.) Giles 2-8 140 14
09.) East Mont 3-7 127 12.7
10.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857

If GW upsets Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 9-1 233 23.3
02.) Narrows 8-2 221 22.1
03.) George Wythe 7-3 211 21.1
04.) Bath Co 9-1 204 20.4
05.) Galax 6-4 196 19.6
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Fort Chiswell 5-5 171 17.1
08.) Giles 2-8 141 14.1
09.) East Mont 3-7 127 12.7
10.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857

If Galax upsets Grayson

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 9-1 233 23.3
02.) Narrows 8-2 221 22.1
03.) Galax 7-3 215 21.5
04.) Bath Co 9-1 204 20.4
05.) George Wythe 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Fort Chiswell 5-5 171 17.1
08.) Giles 2-8 141 14.1
09.) East Mont 3-7 127 12.7
10.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857

If Grayson loses to both GW and Galax.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Narrows 8-2 221 22.1
02.) Grayson Co 8-2 216 21.6
03.) Galax 7-3 215 21.5
04.) George Wythe 7-3 210 21
05.) Bath Co 9-1 204 20.4
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 173 17.3
07.) Fort Chiswell 5-5 171 17.1
08.) Giles 2-8 141 14.1
09.) East Mont 3-7 127 12.7
10.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857

If you have any projections you want me to run, please let me know.

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8 minutes ago, SWVAgridiron said:

@Union_Fan in 1C if we go by the first scenario except Giles beats FC does it put us in 7th and FC 8th? Hoping for a Giles/Narrows first round game 

They would need some help, and I'm not sure where that help would come from.  Galax and GW would have to win out or Rural Retreat would need to lose to Holston to be tied. All those would have to happen to jump. Otherwise, all things being equal, they would still be 8th.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Grayson Co 10-0 250 25
02.) Narrows 8-2 223 22.3
03.) Bath Co 9-1 204 20.4
04.) Galax 6-4 195 19.5
05.) George Wythe 6-4 191 19.1
06.) Parry McCluer 6-4 171 17.1
07.) Fort Chiswell 4-6 158 15.8
08.) Giles 3-7 156 15.6
09.) Auburn 2-8 126 12.6
10.) East Mont 3-7 126 12.6
11.) Craig Co 2-7 103 11.44444
12.) Bland Co 1-6 57 8.142857
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35 minutes ago, sixcat said:

This is just my opinion, but I wouldn't automatically assume Galax beats Fort Chiswell Friday night. FC plays Galax as tough year in and year out as anyone else in the MED. A FC win this Friday and a Giles win in the final week might make @SWVAgridirona happy man. 

I feel like if FC beats Galax then the chances of Giles moving up to #7 are less than 0 because I don’t see Giles jumping PM or Galax even with a win over FC. 

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7 minutes ago, SWVAgridiron said:

I feel like if FC beats Galax then the chances of Giles moving up to #7 are less than 0 because I don’t see Giles jumping PM or Galax even with a win over FC. 

That's probably right. I just don't think it's a forgone conclusion Galax will beat Fort Chiswell or Grayson. There's a much better chance Galax loses to both than beats both in my opinion. 

Either way, it's probable we get a Galax - George Wythe rematch in the first round. GW won't spot Galax 21 points this go-around. The outcome might look very different.  

 

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56 minutes ago, SWVAgridiron said:

I feel like if FC beats Galax then the chances of Giles moving up to #7 are less than 0 because I don’t see Giles jumping PM or Galax even with a win over FC. 

Definitely in Giles' best interest if Galax beat FC.

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  • Union_Fan changed the title to Final week projections....

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