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Final week projections....


Union_Fan
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Still LOTS of football to be played and so many games are toss-ups. However, the way Power Points are stacking up now, plus remaining games will give us a pretty clear indication of the top teams in each Region/Division.

Starting with 2D, Ridgeview/Union will be playing their only remaining toss-up game tomorrow night against each other. Graham only has Pulaski as a toss-up, and I think that game is tilting in Graham's favor. If Union, Ridgeview and Graham all finish 9-1, Reg 2D will look like this. 4th place will be a 3-way battle between GC, VaHigh and Tazewell.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Union 9-1 281 28.1
02.) Graham 9-1 261 26.1
03.) Ridgeview 9-1 243 24.3

 

If Ridgeview defeats Union, and Graham and Ridgeview both finish 9-1, it will look a little like this. Top 3 will be very close. Would only take a game or two going one way or the other for any of the 3 to secure that #1 spot.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Ridgeview 10-0 262 26.2
02.) Union 8-2 261 26.1
03.) Graham 9-1 260 26

 

Region 2C is all Radford. Gretna looks like a solid 2nd and Glenvar a solid 3rd. Based on remaining games, Appo can sneak into that 4th spot. Even if Gretna loses to Altavista, they still most likely stay #2, and I'm not convinced that Glenvar finishes 9-1, so that may not matte any way.

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Radford 10-0 282 28.2
02.) Gretna 9-1 265 26.5
03.) Glenvar 9-1 244 24.4
04.) Appomattox 5-5 217 21.7

 

Region 1D is all Honaker with Rye Cove, Patrick Henry and Twin Spring playing for #2. If RC defeats TS...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 264 26.4
02.) Rye Cove 9-1 222 22.2
03.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 198 19.8
04.) Twin Springs 8-2 194 19.4

If TS defeats RC...

Rank Team Record Total Points Rating
01.) Honaker 10-0 262 26.2
02.) Twin Springs 9-1 213 21.3
03.) Rye Cove 8-2 203 20.3
04.) Pat Henry-GS 7-3 198 19.8

 

In 1C, it's Grayson's to lose. I think Narrows is solid in their points and will be #2 unless Grayson stumbles against GW or Galax. There are so many coin toss games left in 1C, I wouldn't dare try to predict anything down the rankings. That goes for the remaining spots in all other Region C/D 1/2 standings. It's going to be a meat grinder for the remaining spots. 

In no particular order, games that will have a huge impact on seeding going forward.

Richlands/Galax
Union/Ridgeview
Grayson/Galax
Grayson/GW
TS/RC
Tazewell/VaHigh
Richlands/Marion
Central/Grundy
Science Hill/Dobyns Bennett
Graham/Pulaski


We still have 5 weeks left in the regular season. I'll continue to update scenarios and projections as we progress.

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Ridgeview needs to drop Burton and pick up a 3A Kentucky team or grab Bluefield again.  Grundy and Burton on the schedule is killing them.  I agree with adding VHS but it should have been to replace Burton.

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20 minutes ago, UnionGuy2017 said:

Is Union at 281 with Science Hill beating DB or vice versa? 

SH over DB. Earlier in the season, I'd have picked DB, but SH has been playing pretty good since they switched QBs.

That's also RC over TS, but not impossible for TS to pull that one out.

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3 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

SH over DB. Earlier in the season, I'd have picked DB, but SH has been playing pretty good since they switched QBs.

That's also RC over TS, but not impossible for TS to pull that one out.

Agreed about science hill. 
 

obviously looking WAY ahead and assuming a lot of things, but it would be a tough pill to swallow to travel to Region C over a point.

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22 minutes ago, UnionGuy2017 said:

Agreed about science hill. 
 

obviously looking WAY ahead and assuming a lot of things, but it would be a tough pill to swallow to travel to Region C over a point.

Although I'm very happy for RC's great season, I'll certainly be a Titan fan that last week, along with a Richlands, Tazewell, and Graham fan the rest of the season. Heck, I'm even hoping Central can beat Grundy! haha

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22 minutes ago, Duke2015 said:

Even if Union beats Ridgeview I still think they could lose to Abingdon.  I know they’re struggling but have played better and always play Union tough 

Just watching a little bit of film on Abingdon, Union would have to completely implode to lose to them. I'd be shocked if the game is withing 21 pts. Well, maybe 20 because we'll miss at least one XP. haha

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1 hour ago, SwvaOG said:

Ridgeview needs to drop Burton and pick up a 3A Kentucky team or grab Bluefield again.  Grundy and Burton on the schedule is killing them.  I agree with adding VHS but it should have been to replace Burton.

It’s not just about scheduling bigger or better teams, It’s about scheduling games that you know you can win against teams that can also win at least a few games. 

for example - 

this year’s Tazewell team lost to Riverheads and (3A) Princeton. The best case scenario if both of those teams win out they will have 19 wins between them. 
Losing to those two teams nets you 33 points at the end of the season.

& on the other side -

Tazewell has beat Richlands & Grundy (2a points for both). Let’s say in the absolute worst case scenario those two teams finish with 1 win total. 
Beating those two teams net you 38 points at the end of the season in that scenario. 


Beating a 1-9 1A & 0-10 2A team is better than losing to a 9-1 2A & 10-0 3A team by 5 points. 
 

Ridgeview (strictly talking about playoff seeding) wouldn’t benefit nearly as much by losing to a 6-4 Bluefield team as they would scheduling & beating teams like Twin Springs, Rye Cove, Eastside, etc. 

Of course in a perfect world you want to play better competition to better your team but the current VHSL points format is not set up that way.

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39 minutes ago, Duke2015 said:

Even if Union beats Ridgeview I still think they could lose to Abingdon.  I know they’re struggling but have played better and always play Union tough 

Bears ain't losing to Ridgeview or Abingdon in my opinion.  Union is kicking a whole lot of arse this year and taking names as they do it.  I like Ridgeview's program.  Great facilities and great tradition with Clintwood and Haysi, but I truly believe Union is going to wipe Ridgeview plum off the field.  I think the Bears will do the same thing to Abingdon.  Could be wrong though. 

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1 hour ago, Bluefield researcher said:

Ridgeview has played nobody. It is very hard to tell if they are great or just a lot better than bad teams.

A lot better than bad teams. And they lost key starters playing that soft schedule.  Didn’t even come through it healthy.  Double whammy! 

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2 hours ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

Bears ain't losing to Ridgeview or Abingdon in my opinion.  Union is kicking a whole lot of arse this year and taking names as they do it.  I like Ridgeview's program.  Great facilities and great tradition with Clintwood and Haysi, but I truly believe Union is going to wipe Ridgeview plum off the field.  I think the Bears will do the same thing to Abingdon.  Could be wrong though. 

Yeah shouldn’t lose to abingdon but it has been one of those games where we struggle for some reason and same with Central when games at Central.  Kinda like this season when Richlands almost beat Tazewell that game should’ve never been that close even with it being a rivalry game 

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As far as projections go, there were no real surprises Friday night. The top 4 seeds for each region/division are pretty well set. The order will be determined by only a handful of games between now and Nov 3rd, as the gap between each seed is too large to be overcome by 1 game for most.

Games to watch this week are:

Narrows/Honaker
Richlands/Va High
TS/Eastside
Appo/Chatham
Glenvar/Alleghany

As far as the race to the #1 seed in 2A West goes. These games will determine it, and as of now, Radford has the advantage.

GW/Ft Chiswell
GW/Grayson
Giles/Ft Chiswell
Va High/Richlands
Va High/Marion
Galax/Richlands
Galax/Ft Chiswell
Galax/Grayson
Richlands/Marion
Science Hill/ Dobyns Bennett
Graham/Pulaski
TS/Eastside
TS/RC
Central/Grundy

And last, but not least, for "The Mayor", Va High/Jenkins, KY!

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12 minutes ago, Union_Fan said:

As far as projections go, there were no real surprises Friday night. The top 4 seeds for each region/division are pretty well set. The order will be determined by only a handful of games between now and Nov 3rd, as the gap between each seed is too large to be overcome by 1 game for most.

Games to watch this week are:

Narrows/Honaker
Richlands/Va High
TS/Eastside
Appo/Chatham
Glenvar/Alleghany

As far as the race to the #1 seed in 2A West goes. These games will determine it, and as of now, Radford has the advantage.

GW/Ft Chiswell
GW/Grayson
Giles/Ft Chiswell
Va High/Richlands
Va High/Marion
Galax/Richlands
Galax/Ft Chiswell
Galax/Grayson
Richlands/Marion
Science Hill/ Dobyns Bennett
Graham/Pulaski
TS/Eastside
TS/RC
Central/Grundy

And last, but not least, for "The Mayor", Va High/Jenkins, KY!

Is it still possible for Union to out point Radford if both win out?  If so what scenario would make that possible? I saw where the gap narrowed some this week.

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59 minutes ago, crambone22 said:

Is it still possible for Union to out point Radford if both win out?  If so what scenario would make that possible? I saw where the gap narrowed some this week.

Yes, absolutely possible, but uphill for the Bears. The games I mentioned above will need to go in Union's favor and against Radford.

The bold teams in the following matchups will need to win to help Union pass Radford in points. They all don't have to go Union's way, but the more the better.


Richlands/Va High
TS/Eastside
GW/Ft Chiswell
GW/Grayson
Giles/Ft Chiswell
Va High/Marion
Galax/Richlands
Galax/Ft Chiswell
Galax/Grayson
Richlands/Marion
Science Hill/ Dobyns Bennett
Graham/Pulaski
TS/RC
Central/Grundy

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Nothing to do with PowerPoints but I plugged in Radford against Union, Graham, & Central Woodstock. I wasn’t inclined to plug in anymore than that but each match up had Radford winning. It also had Central Woodstock beating Union & Graham by 2 points. I consider that a toss up!  I think Radford is obviously the front runner for region C right now but we still basically have another month of football until the playoffs; a lot can change in a month for any team. 

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I wouldn't count Patrick henry top 4 just yet... Rural retreat could pass them if they keep winning. Im wondering if Rural Retreat could be 3RD if rye cove beats twin springs.  

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39 minutes ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

I heard that all anyone in Appy and Big Stone are talking and thinking about it...."state title, state title." 

P.S. I'm ducking as I'm typing this and bracing for the right overhand.

I have a buddy from Norton, he said there are a lot of people chattering about “this is the year!” I don’t think it’s our friends on this board but probably other locals. I don’t blame them for being excited. It would an awesome accomplishment for Union & Coach Turner. I’m just over here hoping the GMen make it by Pulaski next week and somehow Central pulls a miracle 😂😂😂

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2 hours ago, BandanaVTDavis4321 said:

I heard that all anyone in Appy and Big Stone are talking and thinking about it...."state title, state title." 

P.S. I'm ducking as I'm typing this and bracing for the right overhand.

Any nice hotels in Salem asking for a friend

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1 hour ago, Gridiron60 said:

I have a buddy from Norton, he said there are a lot of people chattering about “this is the year!” I don’t think it’s our friends on this board but probably other locals. I don’t blame them for being excited. It would an awesome accomplishment for Union & Coach Turner. I’m just over here hoping the GMen make it by Pulaski next week and somehow Central pulls a miracle 😂😂😂

Lol I don't know anyone talking about it.  All I'm hearing is Graham will beat our butts next meeting

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6 hours ago, goose111874 said:

Lol I don't know anyone talking about it.  All I'm hearing is Graham will beat our butts next meeting

Haha…I don’t see that happening! Bears are rolling! I think some people just talk sometimes to hear their own voice & don’t really know much but think they do 😂😂😂. People that know football know don’t talk about getting a state title until you’re headed to Salem. Too many things can happen between now & December. I guess there’s zero chance of that miracle upset this Friday up at Wise Walmart ? 😂😂😂

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  • Union_Fan changed the title to Final week projections....

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