Union_Fan

Ridgeview would have the tiebreaker over GC but idk how it would work with R-H. 
 
When it comes right down to it if Rv cant win this game then they don't deserve to be in. I mean no disrespect to Honaker at all but Rvs backs are against the wall, take care of business. Win and the 11-12 seed looks pretty good.
 
Btw, thanks Union_Fan. A lot of people on here wont say thanks just because it would take up too much space but we all appreciate the work you've put into this.
 
How does #1-9 look?

Not a whole lot of scenarios left to look at. Several teams are open or have cupcakes left this week.Looks like the top 9 are set with the Appomattox and Dan River games to determine the exact seeding.
 
The top 4 will most likely look like this with an Appomattox win. 1.)Appomattox 2.)Union 3.)Glenvar 4.)Richlands
With an Appo loss it will probably look like this. 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Richlands 4.)Appomattox OR this 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Appomattox 4.)Richlands, depending on Bluefield and Va High.
 
5-9 are pretty simple. Dan River wins and it looks like this. 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Dan River 9.)Central(Wise)
If Dan River loses.... 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Central(Wise) 9.)Dan River
 
10-16 is a mess with teams that could finish as high as #10 with a win or possibly out with a loss.
 
Win and they're in teams...Lee, Va High, Grayson Co, Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville
Win and they could be in....Randolph-Henry, Chatham
 
Lose and they're still in...Grayson Co, Graham
Lose and could still be in...Lee,Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville
Lose and they're out....Randolph-Henry, Chatham
 
Some hypothetical scenarios for how Gate City can be in or out of the playoffs.
 
If Ridgeview and Va High win Friday then GC is out unless some major upsets happened.
If Lee, Honaker and Randolph-Henry wins then GC would most likely be out.
 
If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Nottoway wins then GC can grab the 16th seed. 
If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Randolph-Henry win then GC could be tied for 16th seed with Randolf-Henry. 
If Va High, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Ridgeview and Chatham for 16th.
If Lee, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Chatham and Virginia high for 16th.
 
Most of the 10-16 teams are going to be determined by somewhat predictable games. I think the final seeding is going to come down to 3 games Va High/Lee, Ridgeview/Honaker, Grayson/Galax.
 
If Grayson, Va High and Ridgeview all win.
10.) Grayson 7-3 209 20.9
11.) Graham 5-5 208 20.8
12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5
13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
14.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3
16.) Lee 5-5 180 18
 
If Grayson, Va High and Rideview all lose.
10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7
11.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4
12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3
15.) Randolph-Henry 5-5 178 17.8
16.) Ridgeview 5-5 178 17.8
 
If Ridgeview and Va High win and Grayson loses.
10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7
11.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5
12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3
15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3
16.) Lee 5-5 180 18

Not a whole lot of scenarios left to look at. Several teams are open or have cupcakes left this week.Looks like the top 9 are set with the Appomattox and Dan River games to determine the exact seeding.
 
The top 4 will most likely look like this with an Appomattox win. 1.)Appomattox 2.)Union 3.)Glenvar 4.)Richlands
With an Appo loss it will probably look like this. 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Richlands 4.)Appomattox OR this 1.)Union 2.)Glenvar 3.)Appomattox 4.)Richlands, depending on Bluefield and Va High.
 
5-9 are pretty simple. Dan River wins and it looks like this. 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Dan River 9.)Central(Wise)
If Dan River loses.... 5.)Buckingham 6.)Giles 7.)James River 8.)Central(Wise) 9.)Dan River
 
10-16 is a mess with teams that could finish as high as #10 with a win or possibly out with a loss.
 
Win and they're in teams...Lee, Va High, Grayson Co, Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville
Win and they could be in....Randolph-Henry, Chatham
 
Lose and they're still in...Grayson Co, Graham
Lose and could still be in...Lee,Ridgeview, Gretna, Martinsville
Lose and they're out....Randolph-Henry, Chatham
 
Some hypothetical scenarios for how Gate City can be in or out of the playoffs.
 
If Ridgeview and Va High win Friday then GC is out unless some major upsets happened.
If Lee, Honaker and Randolph-Henry wins then GC would most likely be out.
 
If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Nottoway wins then GC can grab the 16th seed. 
If Ridgeview, Lee, Bluefield and Randolph-Henry win then GC could be tied for 16th seed with Randolf-Henry. 
If Va High, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Ridgeview and Chatham for 16th.
If Lee, Honaker, Bluefield, Chatham and Nottoway wins then GC could be tied with Chatham and Virginia high for 16th.
 
Most of the 10-16 teams are going to be determined by somewhat predictable games. I think the final seeding is going to come down to 3 games Va High/Lee, Ridgeview/Honaker, Grayson/Galax.
 
If Grayson, Va High and Ridgeview all win.
10.) Grayson 7-3 209 20.9
11.) Graham 5-5 208 20.8
12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5
13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
14.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3
16.) Lee 5-5 180 18
 
If Grayson, Va High and Rideview all lose.
10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7
11.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4
12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3
15.) Randolph-Henry 5-5 178 17.8
16.) Ridgeview 5-5 178 17.8
 
If Ridgeview and Va High win and Grayson loses.
10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7
11.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5
12.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3
13.) Martinsville 4-6 193 19.3
14.) Grayson 6-4 193 19.3
15.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3
16.) Lee 5-5 180 18

Touch'e

They're down this year but any team from the SEC it tough to beat.
 
 
 
 
Just Kidding before someone goes crazy

I think Collier, Mullins, or Noaks would be fine choices. I wouldn't have a problem with any of them getting it. I know that offense gets all the glory and talk, but Rasnic for Lee has been outstanding on defense and should be in the discussion too.
 
I have no idea what criteria is used to determine COY, but if it is best regular season then Turner would deserve it hands down. However, if it is doing more with less or overachieving or exceeding expectations then Owens and Mullins should absolutely be in the discussion.
 
Central had its best regular season ever with Owens inheriting a 1-9 team and making it a 7-3 team in two years. And with the injuries and the slow start Mullins could possibly get a 6 win season for Ridgeview. As Central and Union both know, bringing two rival schools together is no easy feat.
 
Just my 2 cents.

I just love football season..lol

Even if Union finishes #2 it will still work out in our favor. If Richlands beats Appomattox then we would be the highest seed and get a home game for the semi-final. If Appo beats Richlands then we won't have to play them again.
 
IF....we get that far and don't lay an egg in the playoffs that is.

You're right, he's the central cog.....no pun intended.

Helper is working on his cheat sheets!
 
http://www.angelfire.com/va/vhsl/news.html

That's what I dread the most. I have seen bad calls, no calls, missed calls, ignorance of the rules, and other crazy ref related issues, but I have never seen refs blatantly and unapologetically cheat for a team like they did when Union went to Middlesboro in 2013. They didn't even try to hide it.

Union_Fan, you also left out one other variable not related to officials, fans or the other team's facilities......Turnovers!!!  I know that you all are going to a place that might not be an easy place to play....I hope that you all will take care of the ball.
 
Not saying that either team will turn the ball over but that is a "wild card" that can allow a lesser team to hang with or even win against an opponent with more talent.  I hate turnovers, especially fumbles, with a passion.  I wish you and Union the best of luck tomorrow night!  Hope that no one gets injured and that the ball is treated like gold :)  I think you all have a better team than Letcher Central.

Tough road ahead for everyone in 2A West....this side is loaded this year

Thanks guys. I enjoy crunching the numbers just to see what is possible, and with HS football, a LOT is possible. No sure things. I'll put up some more next week after Friday's games.

It's fun to play with the remaining games to determine some "what ifs." I'm certainly not predicting any of these scenarios. Just playing with the numbers in order to see what must happen to determine "possible" not necessarily "probable" end of season rankings. I'm assuming likely wins(using my best guess and/or flipping a coin) in all other games that are not specifically mentioned, especially if they are district games and won't make a difference in point totals for top teams.
 
For Richlands to be #1.....Union loses to Letcher Central, Appo loses to Amherst, Glenvar loses to Radford, ALL of Richland's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and at least 1 of Eastside, Lee, and David Crockett lose their final game.
 
1.) Richlands 9-1 277 27.7 2.) Union 9-1 275 27.5 3.) Appomattox County 9-1 273 27.3 4.) Buckingham County 9-1 262 26.2 5.) Glenvar 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 257 25.7   For Union to be #1..... Even if the top 6 win out, Union can still snag the #1 spot if...ALL of Union's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and Heritage loses one of their final 2 games.   1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Appomattox 10-0 290 29 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 5.) Buckingham 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   If Appo loses to Amherst, the rest of the top 6 win out, Heritage loses one of their final 2 games, and Graham, Abingdon, Grundy, Virginia High, and Bluefield win 6 of their final 8 NON-SW District games.   1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 3.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 4.) Appomattox 9-1 273 27.3 5.) Buckingham 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   But most likely 1-6 go like this because I don't expect Lee, Crockett, and Eastside to all win out.   1.) Appomattox County 10-0 290 29 2.) Union 10-0 288 28.8 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 276 27.6 5.) Buckingham County 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   Now, for 7-16.....   If Graham wins out, Gate City over Central, Va High over Lee, Grundy over Ridgeview, Ridgeview over Honaker, Martinsville loses their last 2, and Altavista over Gretna.   7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Dan River 6-4 208 20.8 9.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 10.) Central-Wise 6-4 202 20.2 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Gate City 4-6 194 19.4 13.) Virginia High 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Grundy 5-5 192 19.2 15.) Ridgeview 5-5 181 18.1 16.) Lee 5-5 178 17.8   If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Va High all win out, Central over Gate City, and Martinsville loses their last 2.   7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 14.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Lee 5-5 180 18 16.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8   If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Lee win out and Central over GC.   7.) James River-Buchanan 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Ridgeview 6-4 196 19.6 12.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 15.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8 16.) Grundy 4-6 177 17.7   If Martinsville wins just one of their remaining 2 games they will knock one of the above 13-16 teams out depending on which scenario we end the season with. James River only has Covington left, so they will most likely be a lock for #7. The fight for 8-16 will be intense.    

I appreciate that thread! One thing is for sure, this football season is going to be one for the history books.

Glenvar and Radford would definitely be good. Central at Gate City may be a hard fought contest due to the stakes. Grundy at Ridgeview could be another one. Grundy needs a win to solidify a playoff spot.

Gate City will ABSOLUTELY be in the playoffs with a win over Central, and may even snag a spot with a loss. I have heard some of the same insinuations about the Appo/Amherst game. Time will tell. Letcher did lose their starting RB to a season ending injury two weeks ago so that may change the dynamics of the game for the Bears.
 
Noaks will make a difference in any game that Union plays. They're better with him than without him, but that DOESN'T guarantee a victory over anyone including and especially Richlands. Some notes about the first meeting..
 
Richlands did have several turnovers. One int was a bad pass. The other two were great plays by Union's DBs.
 
Richlands' fumble was a great play by #27. He hit the QB and knocked the ball out of his hands.
 
The field goal was missed, but the XP was deflected by #27. 
 
So that's 6 mistakes by Richlands that could have cost them the game, but 4 were caused by Union. Union had an 1 INT, so that comes down to 1 net mistake by Richlands. If 1 mistake by a team costs them a game then the teams were pretty darn evenly matched. Richlands did have more yards, but it was only 60 more.
 
I personally don't want to play Richlands again. I hate playing teams twice when you win the first one. The winning team wants to play the second game like they did the first one because if it ain't broke don't fix it. While the losing team plans and schemes for a completely different game. I think the advantage would automatically go to Richlands. It's hard to get to the top, but it's easier than staying there. 
 
My point to all of this.....Union won a close, hard fought contest and have won 3 straight, but Richlands' time is coming. That's why I don't wan to see them again this year.

Glenvar and Radford would definitely be good. Central at Gate City may be a hard fought contest due to the stakes. Grundy at Ridgeview could be another one. Grundy needs a win to solidify a playoff spot.

Glenvar and Radford would definitely be good. Central at Gate City may be a hard fought contest due to the stakes. Grundy at Ridgeview could be another one. Grundy needs a win to solidify a playoff spot.

And Union returns all O and D linemen next year but one, so Turner and Mitchell will have a solid foundation to perfect their skills from.

Put Lebanon in the Hogo. MD don't want them.

It's fun to play with the remaining games to determine some "what ifs." I'm certainly not predicting any of these scenarios. Just playing with the numbers in order to see what must happen to determine "possible" not necessarily "probable" end of season rankings. I'm assuming likely wins(using my best guess and/or flipping a coin) in all other games that are not specifically mentioned, especially if they are district games and won't make a difference in point totals for top teams.
 
For Richlands to be #1.....Union loses to Letcher Central, Appo loses to Amherst, Glenvar loses to Radford, ALL of Richland's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and at least 1 of Eastside, Lee, and David Crockett lose their final game.
 
1.) Richlands 9-1 277 27.7 2.) Union 9-1 275 27.5 3.) Appomattox County 9-1 273 27.3 4.) Buckingham County 9-1 262 26.2 5.) Glenvar 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 257 25.7   For Union to be #1..... Even if the top 6 win out, Union can still snag the #1 spot if...ALL of Union's defeated opponents(that can) win out, and Heritage loses one of their final 2 games.   1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Appomattox 10-0 290 29 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 5.) Buckingham 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   If Appo loses to Amherst, the rest of the top 6 win out, Heritage loses one of their final 2 games, and Graham, Abingdon, Grundy, Virginia High, and Bluefield win 6 of their final 8 NON-SW District games.   1.) Union 10-0 292 29.2 2.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 3.) Richlands 9-1 274 27.4 4.) Appomattox 9-1 273 27.3 5.) Buckingham 9-1 262 26.2 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   But most likely 1-6 go like this because I don't expect Lee, Crockett, and Eastside to all win out.   1.) Appomattox County 10-0 290 29 2.) Union 10-0 288 28.8 3.) Glenvar 10-0 280 28 4.) Richlands 9-1 276 27.6 5.) Buckingham County 9-1 263 26.3 6.) Giles 9-1 256 25.6   Now, for 7-16.....   If Graham wins out, Gate City over Central, Va High over Lee, Grundy over Ridgeview, Ridgeview over Honaker, Martinsville loses their last 2, and Altavista over Gretna.   7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Dan River 6-4 208 20.8 9.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 10.) Central-Wise 6-4 202 20.2 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Gate City 4-6 194 19.4 13.) Virginia High 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Grundy 5-5 192 19.2 15.) Ridgeview 5-5 181 18.1 16.) Lee 5-5 178 17.8   If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Va High all win out, Central over Gate City, and Martinsville loses their last 2.   7.) James River 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 12.) Ridgeview 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 14.) Virginia High 6-4 193 19.3 15.) Lee 5-5 180 18 16.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8   If Graham, Ridgeview, Gretna, and Lee win out and Central over GC.   7.) James River-Buchanan 8-2 228 22.8 8.) Central-Wise 7-3 216 21.6 9.) Dan River 6-4 209 20.9 10.) Graham 5-5 207 20.7 11.) Ridgeview 6-4 196 19.6 12.) Grayson County 6-4 195 19.5 13.) Lee 6-4 194 19.4 14.) Gretna 5-5 193 19.3 15.) Gate City 3-7 178 17.8 16.) Grundy 4-6 177 17.7   If Martinsville wins just one of their remaining 2 games they will knock one of the above 13-16 teams out depending on which scenario we end the season with. James River only has Covington left, so they will most likely be a lock for #7. The fight for 8-16 will be intense.    

Very much appreciated.  
 
#10 is a pretty good spot. #11 would be a really tough draw but better than 12-16. 
 
GC/Central will be a battle, could go either way imo

Given my best "guestimation".....it looks like Ridgeview controls their own fate if they win out. No matter what conceivable scenario I calculate, Ridgeview stays #11, except in the case of Graham losing to Narrows and Central losing to Gate City which would see Ridgeview at #10.
 
Only two weeks of games left, but the "possible" end results are all over the place.