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CalPreps projections for the State Finals


sixcat
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CLASS 1 CHAMPIONSHIP
Galax (VA) vs. Essex (Tappahannock, VA) at Salem City Stadium (Salem, VA), 5:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Galax (VA) 24 (57%) Essex (Tappahannock, VA) 22 (43%)]

CLASS 2 CHAMPIONSHIP
Riverheads (Staunton, VA) vs. Radford (VA) at Salem City Stadium (Salem, VA), 11:30am   
[projection and percent chances to win: Riverheads (Staunton, VA) 28 (53%) Radford (VA) 27 (47%)]

CLASS 3 CHAMPIONSHIP
Liberty Christian (Lynchburg, VA) vs. Lafayette (Williamsburg, VA) at Liberty U. (Lynchburg, VA), 5:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Liberty Christian (Lynchburg, VA) 34 (88%) Lafayette (Williamsburg, VA) 14 (12%)]

CLASS 4 CHAMPIONSHIP
Phoebus (Hampton, VA) vs. Salem (VA) at Liberty U. (Lynchburg, VA), 11:30am   
[projection and percent chances to win: Phoebus (Hampton, VA) 27 (53%) Salem (VA) 26 (47%)]

CLASS 5 CHAMPIONSHIP
Maury (Norfolk, VA) vs. Stone Bridge (Ashburn, VA) at U. of Virginia (Charlottesville, VA), 5:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Maury (Norfolk, VA) 41 (88%) Stone Bridge (Ashburn, VA) 22 (12%)]

CLASS 6 CHAMPIONSHIP
Freedom (Woodbridge, VA) vs. Highland Springs (VA) at U. of Virginia (Charlottesville, VA), 11:30am   
[projection and percent chances to win: Freedom (Woodbridge, VA) 40 (86%) Highland Springs (VA) 24 (14%)]

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39 minutes ago, Liam McPoyle said:

Congratulations to Liberty Christian, Maury, And Freedom Woodbridge on their state championships.

Freedom Woodbridge, AKA the DC Transit School. Lots of kids taking public transit out of DC to Woodbridge to play sports. Amtrak station is a little over a mile from the high school with a bus waiting to pick them up.

LCA playing Class 3 is as absolutely as ridiculous as John Marshall playing Class 2 basketball.

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Salem and Phoebus is the one I'm interested in..

Maury is Norfolk's Public Academic School. Maury is where parents sends their kids in Norfolk as the school with better academics, better facilities, better resources, Less Crime and student problems, better athletics. If you are a dialed in parent in Norfolk and don't have the funds to send your kid to a private school, you do everything in your power to get them to Maury. Don't expect a let up with Maury for quite some time.

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42 minutes ago, Hokiebird7 said:

I'll say it like I did last week (with zero takers)....I'll take radford and 21 points

for a team that has never seen or played a team like this they have no clue whats coming!! lets go 50 on it. Ill send you my venmo and vice versa  in private message on Saturday

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Galax will need to be super disciplined and play error free football Sat.  This is not a great Essex team but they have a number of defenders who can tackle #9 and & #7 for Galax which is something Region C/D teams have struggled with.  That being said I really like how Galax is playing right now and feel they are confident in what they do.  #7 has been dominate the past several weeks on both sides.

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17 hours ago, Hokiebird7 said:

I'll say it like I did last week (with zero takers)....I'll take radford and 21 points

I picked Radford over Graham as well. This week im not sure Radfords dline can match up with Riverheads oline. I think theyll have to score a lot with some mistakes by Riverheads.

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On 12/4/2023 at 10:07 AM, sixcat said:

 

LCA playing Class 3 is as absolutely as ridiculous as John Marshall playing Class 2 basketball.

Imagine if they played in class 2 like the VHSL said they could!

I agree with no "district" and drawing athletes from anywhere they should be forced to play in 4 at least. 

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21 hours ago, Westisthebest said:

I picked Radford over Graham as well. This week im not sure Radfords dline can match up with Riverheads oline. I think theyll have to score a lot with some mistakes by Riverheads.

The thing about is that Riverheads are probably one of the most disciplined teams in the state and they’re not apt to make very many mistakes. If Radford sells out to stop CCC, they’ll get beat easily. Riverheads have too many other options. 

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Riverheads has mastered finding the opponents weakness and exploiting it. Adjust to what Riverheads is doing, they make a slight adjustment and take right off again. Relying on Riverheads to make mistakes is a fools errand. It's not going to happen. Too well coached and far too disciplined. CCC will be the best player on the field, in my opinion. Yes, that includes Clark. Just look at what CCC did to Kam Robinson from Essex last year. Robinson is now a 1st Team Freshman All-American at UVA. 

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Here are the North Carolina projections. 

Friday, December 8th

3A CHAMPIONSHIP
Hickory (NC) vs. Seventy-First (Fayetteville, NC) at U. of North Carolina (Chapel Hill, NC), 7:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Hickory (NC) 35 (53%) Seventy-First (Fayetteville, NC) 34 (47%)]



Saturday, December 9th

1A CHAMPIONSHIP
Mount Airy (NC) vs. Tarboro (NC) at North Carolina State U. (Raleigh, NC), 12:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Mount Airy (NC) 28 (60%) Tarboro (NC) 24 (40%)]

2A CHAMPIONSHIP
Reidsville (NC) vs. Clinton (NC) at North Carolina State U. (Raleigh, NC), 3:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Reidsville (NC) 35 (65%) Clinton (NC) 28 (35%)]

4A CHAMPIONSHIP
Weddington (Matthews, NC) vs. Hoggard (Wilmington, NC) at North Carolina State U. (Raleigh, NC), 7:00pm   
[projection and percent chances to win: Weddington (Matthews, NC) 28 (60%) Hoggard [John T.] (Wilmington, NC) 24 (40%)]

 

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A few things of note concerning the North Carolina State Championship games.

  • Reidsville is attempting to win state championship number 23 in 30 title game appearances. 
  • Tarboro is appearing in the state championship game for the 7th consecutive season.
  • The Clinton DarkHorses have a cool ass nickname. 
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The Galax band left for John Battle at 6:00 am this morning for Regional Band Auditions. They are hoping to get to Salem by kickoff. 
 

Just got a text message that the band organizers haven’t even made it through the middle school bands yet. The Galax band will probably be late arriving like the George Wythe band was last year. 
 

Administrators need to get this fixed. It’s been this way for at least 12 years because the Galax band was late arriving in 2011 for the same reason. It’s senseless to schedule something like this at the same time as the state championships. 

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2 hours ago, sixcat said:

The Galax band left for John Battle at 6:00 am this morning for Regional Band Auditions. They are hoping to get to Salem by kickoff. 
 

Just got a text message that the band organizers haven’t even made it through the middle school bands yet. The Galax band will probably be late arriving like the George Wythe band was last year. 
 

Administrators need to get this fixed. It’s been this way for at least 12 years because the Galax band was late arriving in 2011 for the same reason. It’s senseless to schedule something like this at the same time as the state championships. 

When I was in high school and we had these auditions then those from schools with football teams playing for the state championship were given priority for auditions. After everyone from that program auditioned then they got on the bus quick and were on their way to the game. 
 

It’s a damned if you don’t, damned if you do situation for the band students, who should be allowed to audition and potentially be eligible for all-state AND go support their football team. 

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2 hours ago, BearsFan88 said:

When I was in high school and we had these auditions then those from schools with football teams playing for the state championship were given priority for auditions. After everyone from that program auditioned then they got on the bus quick and were on their way to the game. 
 

It’s a damned if you don’t, damned if you do situation for the band students, who should be allowed to audition and potentially be eligible for all-state AND go support their football team. 

It looks like Galax is going to make it just in time. They are about about 20 minutes from Salem on I-81 now. 

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5 hours ago, sixcat said:

The Galax band left for John Battle at 6:00 am this morning for Regional Band Auditions. They are hoping to get to Salem by kickoff. 
 

Just got a text message that the band organizers haven’t even made it through the middle school bands yet. The Galax band will probably be late arriving like the George Wythe band was last year. 
 

Administrators need to get this fixed. It’s been this way for at least 12 years because the Galax band was late arriving in 2011 for the same reason. It’s senseless to schedule something like this at the same time as the state championships. 

When I was in band we played in the final in Lynchburg my sophomore, junior and senior years. They let ALL Richlands band students go first so we could make the game. I believe maybe GW or GC was in the title game one year as well and they let them go first, too. 
 

I don’t see why they stopped doing that for kids who need to get to state title games. If you aren’t gonna change the date of auditions — at least let them go first. 

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2 minutes ago, Ryan4VT said:

When I was in band we played in the final in Lynchburg my sophomore, junior and senior years. They let ALL Richlands band students go first so we could make the game. I believe maybe GW or GC was in the title game one year as well and they let them go first, too. 
 

I don’t see why they stopped doing that for kids who need to get to state title games. If you aren’t gonna change the date of auditions — at least let them go first. 

It didn’t create an unfair advantage either. When I was at Powell Valley, my junior year we made it to the championship versus Manassas Park. We had about 85 kids in bad that year. Half of us auditioned for all district. The half of us who auditioned got to go first. Our principal made sure we did because he required us to go to the game while recognizing the importance of the auditions. 
 

We all quickly auditioned and got back on the charter bus and made it to JMU with about 45 minutes to spare 

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